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Peru. Premier League
Peru. Premier League
01.08.2026 18:15 UTC
01.08.2026 18:15 UTC
Not started

Peru. Premier League

ADT - Deportivo Garcilaso

Football
ADT
ADT
- : -
Not started
Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 ADT — 45%

Pure model vs market (1 · ADT): model 38% · market 46% Δ −8 pp model estimates below the market

1 · ADT44.5%
X · draw26.9%
2 · Deportivo Garcilaso28.6%

Model estimate: win ADT 44.5%, draw 26.9%, win Deportivo Garcilaso 28.6%. Model favourite — ADT.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

Xdraw (odds3.41) Score 1:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 29% on the line (odds 3.41)
  • • edge over the line +21 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction ADT - Deportivo Garcilaso August 1, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: ADT. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.05 / X 3.42 / 2 3.65

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 46.3%
X 27.7%
2 26.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Primera División
League table
ADT
#1220 ptsGP 195-5-923:25
ARRAY
Deportivo Garcilaso
#729 ptsGP 198-5-623:20
ARRAY
Best price across 12 books
1 2.11 Dafabet
X 3.45 10Bet
2 3.70 Bet365

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
ADT
W-D-L 3-2-5 Scored 1.39 Conceded 1.31 xG 1.28 xGA 1.25 Corners 3.0
Deportivo Garcilaso
W-D-L 6-1-3 Scored 1.40 Conceded 1.00 xG 1.23 xGA 1.31 Corners 3.1

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
ADT
Rating 1522 xG 1.32 Win 44%
Deportivo Garcilaso
Rating 1578 xG 1.01 Win 29%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 18:15 UTC
Market 1 46.3% @ 2.05 / X 27.7% @ 3.42 / 2 26.0% @ 3.65
Match center

ADT - Deportivo Garcilaso

Form 2/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
ADT 45.0% 44.5% market and model agree
Draw 27.1% 26.9% draw risk
Deportivo Garcilaso 27.9% 28.6%
xG - 1.32 : 1.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 44.5% / 26.9% / 28.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,437 / 1,563 AD Tarma / Deportivo Garcilaso
RD 211 / 184 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,015-1,858 / 1,194-1,932 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.42 market consensus · no value · model 28.6%
X 3.41 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.04 market consensus · no value · model 44.5%
Double chance
12 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 73.1%
1X 1.28 market consensus · no value · model 71.4%
X2 1.67 market consensus · no value · model 55.5%
Handicap
2 +0.5 1.74 market consensus · line only
2 0 2.40 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.98 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.50 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.94 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.77 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.94 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.80 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.94 51.6%
yes 1.80 55.6%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.24 80.7% 1.27 78.7%
1x 1.26 79.4% 1.29 77.5%
x2 1.64 61.0% 1.69 59.2%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.63 38.0%
X 2.21 45.3%
4.04 24.8%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.82 55.0%
Under 1 1.88 53.2%
Match center
ADT
L L
25.07 13:30 UTC Peru: Liga 1 - Clausura Standings
ADT 0:2 Sport BoyzSport Boyz
18.07 16:15 UTC Peru: Liga 1 - Clausura Standings
ADT 1:2 Universitario
0 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
0.5 Scored
2.0 Conceded
0 Points
Deportivo Garcilaso
W L
26.07 22:00 UTC Peru: Liga 1 - Clausura Standings
Deportivo Garcilaso 2:1 FC CajamarcaFC Cajamarca
17.07 18:15 UTC Peru: Liga 1 - Clausura Standings
Deportivo Garcilaso 0:1 Sporting Kristall
1 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyADT - Deportivo Garcilaso

ADT
0 matches total
Deportivo Garcilaso
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history