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Peru. Premier League
Peru. Premier League
02.08.2026 20:30 UTC
02.08.2026 20:30 UTC
Not started

Peru. Premier League

UCV Moquegua - FBC Melgar

Football
UCV Moquegua
UCV Moquegua
- : -
Not started
FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar

UCV Moquegua take on FBC Melgar on August 2, 2026 in the Peru. Premier League.

Recent form (W-D-L): UCV Moquegua 0-2-0, FBC Melgar 2-0-0. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 FBC Melgar — 51%

1 · UCV Moquegua28.9%
X · draw19.8%
2 · FBC Melgar51.4%

Model estimate: win UCV Moquegua 28.9%, draw 19.8%, win FBC Melgar 51.4%. Model favourite — FBC Melgar.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2FBC Melgar (odds2.39) Score 0:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Melgar: probability 50% vs 42% on the line (odds 2.39)
  • • edge over the line +8 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 0:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction UCV Moquegua - FBC Melgar August 2, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: FBC Melgar. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.81 / X 3.48 / 2 1.96

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.0%
1 24.8%
X 27.1%
2 48.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Primera División
League table
UCV Moquegua
#1420 ptsGP 195-5-919:26
FBC Melgar
#434 ptsGP 1910-4-534:22
Best price across 13 books
1 3.70 10Bet
X 3.35 10Bet
2 2.09 Dafabet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
UCV Moquegua
W-D-L 2-4-4 Scored 1.10 Conceded 1.10 xG 1.01 xGA 1.63 Corners 3.1
FBC Melgar
W-D-L 7-2-1 Scored 2.10 Conceded 0.90 xG 1.50 xGA 1.08 Corners 4.2

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
UCV Moquegua
Rating 1512 xG 0.93 Win 23%
FBC Melgar
Rating 1632 xG 1.52 Win 51%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center
Start 02.08.2026 20:30 UTC
Market 1 24.8% @ 3.81 / X 27.1% @ 3.48 / 2 48.1% @ 1.96
Match center

UCV Moquegua - FBC Melgar

Form 2/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line
More needed
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
UCV Moquegua 25.6% 28.9%
Draw 28.6% 19.8% draw risk
FBC Melgar 45.8% 51.4% market and model agree
xG - 0.93 : 1.52

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 28.9% / 19.8% / 51.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,544 / 1,757 Moquegua / Melgar
RD 196 / 207 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,151-1,937 / 1,343-2,171 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.96 market consensus · no value · model 51.4%
X 3.48 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.81 market consensus · no value · model 28.9%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.90 market consensus · line only
1 +0.5 1.80 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.01 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.72 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.87 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.87 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.87 53.5%
yes 1.87 53.5%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
4.55 22.0%
X 2.11 47.4%
2.58 38.8%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.85 54.1%
Under 1 1.85 54.1%

Handicap

Outcome Leon
1.80 55.6%
1.90 52.6%
Match center
UCV Moquegua
D D
26.07 16:00 UTC Peru: Liga 1 - Clausura Standings
UCV Moquegua 0:0 UTKUTK
18.07 14:00 UTC Peru: Liga 1 - Clausura Standings
UCV Moquegua 2:2 Komersiantes UnidosKomersiantes Unidos
0 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
2 Points
FBC Melgar
W W
25.07 23:00 UTC Peru: Liga 1 - Clausura Standings
FBC Melgar 2:1 Sporting Kristall
17.07 23:00 UTC Peru: Liga 1 - Clausura Standings
FBC Melgar 3:1 SensianoSensiano
2 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.5 Scored
1.0 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyUCV Moquegua - FBC Melgar

UCV Moquegua
0 matches total
FBC Melgar
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history