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Portugal: Championship Portugal Standings
Portugal: Championship Portugal Standings
10.08.2026 19:15 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line –Form –H2H ✓Prediction
10.08.2026 19:15 UTC
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Portugal: Championship Portugal Standings

Santa Klara - Nacional

Football
S
Santa Klara
- : -
Not started
N
Nacional

Santa Klara take on Nacional on August 10, 2026 in the Portugal: Championship Portugal Standings.

Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Santa Klara — 50%

Pure model vs market (1 · Santa Klara): model 44% · market 51% Δ −7 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Santa Klara50.5%
X · draw27.3%
2 · Nacional22.2%

Model estimate: win Santa Klara 50.5%, draw 27.3%, win Nacional 22.2%. Model favourite — Santa Klara.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Santa Klara - Nacional August 10, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Santa Klara. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.86 / X 3.43 / 2 4.45

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.0% 3 books
1 51.0%
X 27.6%
2 21.4%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Santa Klara
51%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.43
Nacional
21%
4.45
Handicap
Santa Klara (0)
70%
1.36
Nacional (0)
30%
3.15
Total
Over 2.5
44%
2.20
Under 2.5
56%
1.68

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

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Match center
Start 10.08.2026 19:15 UTC
Market 1 51.0% @ 1.86 / X 27.7% @ 3.43 / 2 21.3% @ 4.45
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Santa Klara 50%
💹 Market Santa Klara 51%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Santa Klara - Nacional

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line
More needed
Form championat, soccer365, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Santa Klara 50.9% 50.5% market and model agree
Draw 27.7% 27.3% draw risk
Nacional 21.5% 22.2%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 50.5% / 27.3% / 22.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Santa Klara / Nacional
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.42 market consensus · no value · model 22.2%
X 3.42 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.85 market consensus · no value · model 50.5%
Double chance
12 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 72.7%
1X 1.20 market consensus · no value · model 77.8%
X2 1.91 market consensus · no value · model 49.5%
Handicap
2 +1 1.42 market consensus · line only
2 0 3.13 market consensus · line only
1 -1 2.74 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.35 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.16 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.67 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.75 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.00 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.75 57.1%
yes 2.00 50.0%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.30 76.9% 1.29 77.5%
1x 1.20 83.3% 1.19 84.0%
x2 1.92 52.1% 1.90 52.6%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.44 41.0%
X 2.08 48.1%
5.60 17.9%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 2.02 49.5%
Under 1 1.74 57.5%
Match center

Full head-to-head historySanta Klara - Nacional

Santa Klara
0 matches total
Nacional
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history