Premier League England

11.04.2026 11:30 UTC Match prediction

11.04.2026 11:30 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Arsenal - Bournemouth

England Futbol

Stadium Emirates Stadium

Capacity 60 383

Arsenal

1 : 2

Finished

Bournemouth

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Arsenal — 61%

1 · Arsenal ✓ Прогноз61.4%

market65%

X · draw22.2%

market21%

2 · Bournemouth16.5%

market14%

Model estimate: win Arsenal 61.4%, draw 22.2%, win Bournemouth 16.5%. Model favourite — Arsenal.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Arsenal - Bournemouth 11 апреля 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Arsenal.

Strongest: Arsenal - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.45 / X 4.57 / 2 6.78
1X2 market: Arsenal 65.2% / X 20.8% / Bournemouth 14.0%
Glicko: Arsenal 61.4% / X 22.2% / Bournemouth 16.5%
Total 2.5: over probability 38.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.6%

1 ✓ Прогноз 65.3%

X 20.7%

2 14.0%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%

Over 2.5 58.3%

Under 2.5 41.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П1

Main outcome П1

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 64.3%

Total ТМ 2.5

Score 1:0

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: 100 RUB

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Match center

Start 11.04.2026 11:30 UTC

Stadium Emirates Stadium (London)

Capacity 60,383

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Arsenal 61%

💹 Market Arsenal 6520%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Arsenal - Bournemouth

Arsenal: Победа 1.45 Arsenal: Ничья 4.33 Bournemouth Победа: 7.00 Общий тотал голов больше 2.5: 1.62 Общий тотал голов меньше 2.5: 2.30 Индивидуальный тотал голов Arsenal больше 1.5: 1.50 Индивидуальный тотал голов Arsenal меньше 1.5: 2.50 Индивидуальный тотал голов Bournemouth …

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:2

Events 14

Statistics 24

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

17' 17' Normal Goal Bournemouth

35' 35' Penalty | Viktor Gyökeres Nathan Qi Arsenal

54' 54' Substitution 1 | Gabriel Martinelli | assist/sub out: Leandro Trossard Arsenal

54' 54' Substitution 2 | Noni Madueke | assist/sub out: Max Dowman Arsenal

54' 54' Substitution 3 | Kai Havertz | assist/sub out: Eberechi Eze L. Yoro Arsenal

70' 70' Substitution 1 | Rayan | assist/sub out: David Brooks Bournemouth

70' 70' Substitution 2 | Ryan Christie | assist/sub out: Tyler Adams Samuel Chukwueze Bournemouth

74' 74' Normal Goal | Alex Scott | assist/sub out: Evanilson Bournemouth

Metric Arsenal Bournemouth SStats

Ожидаемые голы (xG) 2.32 1.19 final

Заблокированные удары 8 2 final

Удары мимо 4 3 final

Удары в створ 3 3 final

Удары всего 15 8 final

Фолы совершено 12 18 final

Желтые карточки 1 3 final

Офсайды 2 0 final

Arsenal #1 D. Petrovic, #3 Adrien Truffert, #5 M. Senesi, #8 A. Scott, #9 Evanilson, #10 R. Christie, #16 Marcus Tavernier, #20 A. Jimenez, #22 Eli Junior Kroupi, #23 James Hill, #37 Rayan

Bournemouth #1 D. Raya, #2 W. Saliba, #4 B. White, #6 Gabriel, #11 G. Martinelli, #14 Viktor Gyökeres, #20 N. Madueke, #29 K. Havertz, #36 M. Zubimendi, #41 D. Rice, #49 Myles Lewis-Skelly

Player Team Metric SStats

B. White Bournemouth football.player.assists 0

B. White Bournemouth Дриблинг попытки 6

B. White Bournemouth Дриблинг успешно 1

B. White Bournemouth Единоборства всего 3

B. White Bournemouth Единоборства выиграно 9

B. White Bournemouth Фолы совершено 1

B. White Bournemouth Фолы на игроке 1

B. White Bournemouth Сейвы 0

B. White Bournemouth football.player.minutes_played 76

B. White Bournemouth Точность пасов % 1

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Arsenal 66.7% 61.4% market and model agree

Draw 20.7% 22.2% draw risk

Bournemouth 12.6% 16.5%

xG - 1.85 : 0.84

Total 2.5 Over 38.3% - Under 61.7%

Model check - - Difference 0.05

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 61.4% / 22.2% / 16.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,710 / 1,534 Arsenal / Bournemouth

RD 78 / 72 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 6.78 market consensus · no value · model 16.5%

X 4.57 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.45 market consensus · no value · model 61.4%

Double chance

X2 2.69 market consensus · no value · model 38.6%

12 1.18 market consensus · no value · model 77.8%

1X 1.10 market consensus · no value · model 83.6%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.73 market consensus · line only

2 -1 2.10 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 6.03 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.44 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.63 market consensus · no value · model 38.3%

Under 2.5 2.28 market consensus · value +40.7% · model 61.7%

Both teams to score

No 2.00 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.75 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
П1	1.43 69.9%	1.46 68.5%	1.49 67.1%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.50 66.7%
Х	4.30 23.3%	4.75 21.1%	4.70 21.3%	4.33 23.1%	4.50 22.2%	4.65 21.5%
П2	7.30 13.7%	6.70 14.9%	6.96 14.4%	6.00 16.7%	7.00 14.3%	7.00 14.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	2.00 50.0%	2.02 49.5%	1.98 50.5%	2.10 47.6%	1.95 51.3%	2.00 50.0%	2.00 50.0%	2.00 50.0%	1.96 51.0%
yes	1.75 57.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.67 59.9%	1.80 55.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.75 57.1%	1.70 58.8%	1.75 57.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.70 37.0%	2.76 36.2%	2.63 38.0%	2.62 38.2%	2.72 36.8%	2.80 35.7%
home_away	1.17 85.5%	1.22 82.0%	1.20 83.3%	1.18 84.8%	1.20 83.3%	1.14 87.7%
home_draw	1.08 92.6%	1.12 89.3%	1.11 90.1%	1.10 90.9%	1.13 88.5%	1.07 93.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
ТБ 0.5	1.04 96.2%	—	1.03 97.1%
ТБ 1.0	—	—	1.03 97.1%
ТБ 1.25	—	—	1.06 94.3%
ТБ 1.5	1.20 83.3%	—	1.14 87.7%
ТБ 2.5	1.62 61.7%	—	—
ТБ 2.75	—	1.85 54.1%	—
ТБ 3.0	—	2.07 48.3%	—
ТБ 3.5	2.55 39.2%	—	—
ТБ 4.5	4.33 23.1%	—	—
ТМ 0.5	10.00 10.0%	—	—
ТМ 1.5	4.33 23.1%	—	—
ТМ 2.5	2.25 44.4%	—	—
ТМ 2.75	—	2.05 48.8%	—
ТМ 3.0	—	1.85 54.1%	—
ТМ 3.5	1.50 66.7%	—	—
ТМ 4.5	1.20 83.3%	—	—

Match center

Arsenal

Founded 1886

Bournemouth

Founded 1899

Match center

Arsenal

BS B. Saka Injury

LT Leandro Trossard Injury

Bournemouth

JK J. Kluivert Knee Injury

TA T. Adams Hamstring Injury

Arsenal Founded: 1886

Bournemouth Founded: 1899

Match center

Arsenal

W W W W D

14.03 17:30 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 2:0 Everton

04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 1:0 Brighton

01.03 16:30 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 2:1 Chelsea

22.02 16:30 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 4:1 Tottenkhem

18.02 20:00 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 2:2 Wolves

4 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

2.2 Scored

0.8 Conceded

13 Points

Bournemouth

D D D D D

20.03 20:00 UTC Premier League

Bournemouth 2:2 Manchester United

14.03 15:00 UTC Premier League

Bournemouth 0:0 Burnley

03.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Bournemouth 0:0 Brentford

28.02 12:30 UTC Premier League

Bournemouth 1:1 Sunderland

21.02 17:30 UTC Premier League

Bournemouth 0:0 West Ham

0 Wins

5 Draws

0 Losses

0.6 Scored

0.6 Conceded

5 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyArsenal - Bournemouth

Arsenal

3 matches total

Bournemouth

Arsenal: 1 (33.3%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Bournemouth: 2 (66.7%)

Biggest win Bournemouth 0:2 (19.10 16:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 5 goals (3:2, 03.01 17:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 6

6 Goals conceded 4

Match history

03.01 17:30 UTC

Premier League

Arsenal

3:2

Bournemouth

03.05 16:30 UTC

Premier League

Arsenal

1:2

Bournemouth

19.10 16:30 UTC

Premier League

Arsenal

0:2

Bournemouth

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.