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Premier League
Premier League England
18.05.2025 15:30 UTC Match prediction
18.05.2025 15:30 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Arsenal - Newcastle

England Football
Arsenal
Arsenal
1 : 0
Finished
Newcastle
Newcastle

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Arsenal - Newcastle May 18, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Arsenal.

Line favourite market consensus: Arsenal. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.88 / X 3.84 / 2 4.21
  • 1X2 market: Arsenal 51.7% / X 25.3% / Newcastle 23.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 55.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 3.0%
1 51.6%
X 25.3%
2 23.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.2%
Over 2.5 55.4%
Under 2.5 44.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 18.05.2025 15:30 UTC
Match center

Arsenal - Newcastle

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.21 market consensus · line only
X 3.84 market consensus · line only
1 1.88 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.00 market consensus · line only
12 1.30 market consensus · line only
1X 1.26 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.75 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.17 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.88 53.2%
X 3.84 26.0%
4.21 23.8%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 2.00 50.0%
home_away 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.26 79.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
Over 2.5 1.75 57.1%
Under 2.5 2.17 46.1%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.40 71.4%
3.14 31.9%
Match center
Arsenal
D L D W D
11.05 15:30 UTC Premier League
Arsenal 2:2 LiverpulLiverpul
03.05 16:30 UTC Premier League
Arsenal 1:2 BournemouthBournemouth
23.04 19:00 UTC Premier League
Arsenal 2:2 Kristal PelasKristal Pelas
20.04 13:00 UTC Premier League
Arsenal 4:0 IpswichIpswich
12.04 16:30 UTC Premier League
Arsenal 1:1 BrentfordBrentford
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.4 Conceded
6 Points
Newcastle
W D W L W
11.05 11:00 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 2:0 ChelseaChelsea
04.05 13:00 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 1:1 BrightonBrighton
26.04 14:00 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 3:0 IpswichIpswich
19.04 16:30 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 1:4 Aston VillaAston Villa
16.04 18:30 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 5:0 Kristal PelasKristal Pelas
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.4 Scored
1.0 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyArsenal - Newcastle

Arsenal
0 matches total
Newcastle
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history