PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
Premier League
Premier League England
25.04.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction
25.04.2026 16:30 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Arsenal - Newcastle

England Football
Stadium Emirates Stadium
Capacity 60 383
Arsenal
Arsenal
1 : 0
Finished
Newcastle
Newcastle
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Arsenal — 65%

1 · Arsenal ✓ Pick65.5%
market64%
X · draw20.3%
market21%
2 · Newcastle14.3%
market15%

Model estimate: win Arsenal 65.5%, draw 20.3%, win Newcastle 14.3%. Model favourite — Arsenal.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Arsenal - Newcastle April 25, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Arsenal.

Strongest: Arsenal - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.47 / X 4.59 / 2 6.27
  • 1X2 market: Arsenal 64.3% / X 20.6% / Newcastle 15.1%
  • Glicko: Arsenal 65.5% / X 20.3% / Newcastle 14.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 37.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.8%
1 ✓ Pick 64.3%
X 20.6%
2 15.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 59.1%
Under 2.5 40.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 10/10
Confidence 65.7%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 25.04.2026 16:30 UTC
Stadium Emirates Stadium (London)
Capacity 60,383

? ? ??? ? ??????§? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ? ??? ? ? ??° ? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ?????  ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????±? ? ? ??? ? ??????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ?????¦? ? ??? ? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????· SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Arsenal 65%
💹 Market Arsenal 6430%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Arsenal - Newcastle

Arsenal: Win 1.44 Arsenal: Draw 4.75 Newcastle Win: 6.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.62 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.30 Individualnyy total golov Arsenal bolshe 2.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Arsenal menshe 2.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total golov Newcastle bol…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 13
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
9' 9' Normal Goal | Eberechi Eze | assist/sub out: Kai Havertz Aaron Eliscu Arsenal
34' 34' Substitution 1 | Kai Havertz | assist/sub out: Viktor Gyökeres L. Yoro Arsenal
53' 53' Substitution 3 | Eberechi Eze | assist/sub out: Gabriel Martinelli Aaron Eliscu Arsenal
57' 57' Yellow Card | D. Burn DONGZE LV Newcastle
66' 66' Substitution 4 | W. Osula | assist/sub out: Y. Wissa Newcastle
66' 66' Substitution 5 | J. Murphy | assist/sub out: H. Barnes Stefan Ilie Bogdan Petre Newcastle
71' 71' Yellow Card | Gabriel Martinelli Arsenal
74' 74' Yellow Card | N. Pope Efe Bartu Onur Newcastle
Metric Arsenal Newcastle SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.49 1 final
Zablokirovannye udary 5 5 final
Shots off target 2 5 final
Shots on target 4 3 final
Udary vsego 11 13 final
Fouls soversheno 13 10 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 2 final
Offsides 2 1 final
Arsenal #1 Nick Pope, #4 Sven Botman, #8 S. Tonali, #12 M. Thiaw, #18 William Osula, #23 Jacob Murphy, #28 Joe Willock, #33 D. Burn, #39 Bruno Guimaraes, #41 Jacob Ramsey, #67 L. Miley
Newcastle #1 D. Raya, #2 W. Saliba, #4 B. White, #5 P. Hincapié, #6 Gabriel, #8 M. Odegaard, #10 E. Eze, #20 N. Madueke, #29 K. Havertz, #36 M. Zubimendi, #41 D. Rice
Player Team Metric SStats
B. Saka Newcastle football.player.assists 0
B. Saka Newcastle Edinoborstva vsego 1
B. Saka Newcastle Edinoborstva vyigrano 2
B. Saka Newcastle Seyvy 0
B. Saka Newcastle football.player.minutes_played 9
B. Saka Newcastle Tochnost pasov % 1
B. Saka Newcastle Klyuchevye pasy 5
B. Saka Newcastle Reyting (staryy) 6.5
B. Saka Newcastle Otbory vsego 4
B. Saka Newcastle Yellow cards 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Arsenal 64.9% 65.5% market and model agree
Draw 20.5% 20.3% draw risk
Newcastle 14.6% 14.3%
xG - 2.03 : 0.82
Total 2.5 Over 37.8% - Under 62.2%
Model check - - Difference 0.01
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 65.5% / 20.3% / 14.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,681 / 1,502 Arsenal / Newcastle
RD 76 / 71 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.27 market consensus · no value · model 14.3%
X 4.59 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.47 market consensus · no value · model 65.5%
Double chance
X2 2.61 market consensus · no value · model 34.5%
12 1.19 market consensus · no value · model 79.7%
1X 1.12 market consensus · no value · model 85.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.63 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.07 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 5.55 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.47 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.61 market consensus · no value · model 37.8%
Under 2.5 2.33 market consensus · value +45.0% · model 62.2%
Both teams to score
No 2.06 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.71 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.45 69.0% 1.52 65.8% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.47 68.0%
X 4.35 23.0% 4.78 20.9% 4.40 22.7% 4.75 21.1% 4.60 21.7% 4.75 21.1%
6.75 14.8% 6.65 15.0% 6.00 16.7% 6.50 15.4% 6.20 16.1% 6.50 15.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.05 48.8% 2.02 49.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.02 49.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.04 49.0%
yes 1.73 57.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.72 58.1% 1.71 58.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.65 37.7% 2.70 37.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.62 38.2% 2.70 37.0% 2.63 38.0%
home_away 1.15 87.0% 1.23 81.3% 1.20 83.3% 1.20 83.3% 1.19 84.0% 1.17 85.5%
home_draw 1.10 90.9% 1.14 87.7% 1.13 88.5% 1.12 89.3% 1.15 87.0% 1.08 92.6%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0 — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25 — 1.08 92.6%
Over 1.5 1.20 83.3% 1.16 86.2%
Over 1.75 — 1.20 83.3%
Over 2.0 — 1.25 80.0%
Over 2.25 — 1.42 70.4%
Over 2.5 1.60 62.5% 1.66 60.2%
Over 3.5 2.50 40.0% —
Over 4.5 4.33 23.1% —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% —
Under 1.5 4.33 23.1% —
Under 2.5 2.30 43.5% —
Under 3.5 1.50 66.7% —
Under 4.5 1.20 83.3% —
Match center
Arsenal
Founded 1886
Newcastle
Founded 1892
Match center
Arsenal
L L W W W
19.04 15:30 UTC Premier League
Arsenal 1:2 Manchester CityManchester City
11.04 11:30 UTC Premier League
Arsenal 1:2 BournemouthBournemouth
14.03 17:30 UTC Premier League
Arsenal 2:0 EvertonEverton
04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League
Arsenal 1:0 BrightonBrighton
01.03 16:30 UTC Premier League
Arsenal 2:1 ChelseaChelsea
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.0 Conceded
9 Points
Newcastle
L L L W W
18.04 14:00 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 1:2 BournemouthBournemouth
12.04 13:00 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 1:2 Kristal PelasKristal Pelas
22.03 12:00 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 1:2 SunderlandSunderland
14.03 17:30 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 1:0 ChelseaChelsea
04.03 20:15 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 2:1 Manchester UnitedManchester United
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.4 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyArsenal - Newcastle

Arsenal
2 matches total
Newcastle
Arsenal: 2 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Newcastle: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Arsenal 2:1 (28.09 15:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 28.09 15:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 3

Match history

28.09 15:30 UTC Premier League
Arsenal
2:1
Nyukasl
18.05 15:30 UTC Premier League
Arsenal
1:0
Nyukasl
Match center
? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????±? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????»? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????µ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ????? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.