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Start
05.10.2025 13:00 UTC
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05.10.2025 13:00 UTC
Finished
Premier League
Aston Villa - Burnley
2
:
1
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Aston Villa - Burnley October 5, 2025
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Aston Villa.
Line favourite market consensus: Aston Villa. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.63 / X 3.90 / 2 5.69
- 1X2 market: Aston Villa 58.7% / X 24.5% / Burnley 16.8%
- Total 2.5: over probability 50.7%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 4.6%
1
58.7%
X
24.5%
2
16.8%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 4.2%
Over 2.5
49.2%
Under 2.5
50.8%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Aston Villa - Burnley
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
5.71
market consensus · line only
X
3.90
market consensus · line only
1
1.63
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
2.32
market consensus · line only
12
1.26
market consensus · line only
1X
1.15
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
2.35
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.77
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
5.18
market consensus · line only
1 -0.5
1.62
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.95
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
1.89
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.84
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.91
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 1.64 61.0% | |
| X | 3.91 25.6% |
| 5.92 16.9% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.59 62.9% | 1.63 61.4% | 1.68 59.5% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.65 60.6% | |
| X | 3.90 25.6% | 3.95 25.3% | 4.03 24.8% | 3.80 26.3% | 4.00 25.0% | 3.90 25.6% |
| 5.70 17.5% | 5.70 17.5% | 5.87 17.0% | 5.00 20.0% | 5.50 18.2% | 6.00 16.7% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | Pinnacle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.83 54.6% | 1.86 53.8% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.86 53.8% |
| yes | 1.85 54.1% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.89 52.9% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.90 52.6% | 2.01 49.8% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 2.30 43.5% | 2.33 42.9% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.35 42.6% |
| home_away | 1.20 83.3% | 1.29 77.5% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.26 79.4% | 1.28 78.1% |
| home_draw | 1.13 88.5% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.15 87.0% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.16 86.2% |
Match center
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Match center
Full head-to-head historyAston Villa - Burnley
Aston Villa
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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