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Premier League England

21.02.2026 15:00 UTC Match prediction

21.02.2026 15:00 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Aston Villa - Leeds

England Football

Aston Villa

1 : 1

Finished

Leeds

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Aston Villa - Leeds February 21, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Aston Villa.

Line favourite market consensus: Aston Villa. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.83 / X 3.66 / 2 4.36
1X2 market: Aston Villa 52.1% / X 26.1% / Leeds 21.9%
Total 2.5: over probability 53.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.9%

1 52.1%

X 26.0%

2 21.9%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.3%

Over 2.5 53.9%

Under 2.5 46.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 21.02.2026 15:00 UTC

Match center

Aston Villa - Leeds

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 4.37 market consensus · line only

X 3.67 market consensus · line only

1 1.83 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 2.00 market consensus · line only

12 1.27 market consensus · line only

1X 1.21 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.05 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.56 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 4.16 market consensus · line only

2 +1 7.50 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.78 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.08 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.13 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.68 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.84 54.4%
X	3.76 26.6%
	4.52 22.1%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.77 56.5%	1.81 55.3%	1.88 53.2%	1.85 54.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.85 54.1%
X	3.60 27.8%	3.75 26.7%	3.81 26.3%	3.40 29.4%	3.70 27.0%	3.75 26.7%
	4.35 23.0%	4.45 22.5%	4.52 22.1%	4.00 25.0%	4.50 22.2%	4.55 22.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	2.15 46.5%	2.22 45.1%	2.12 47.2%	2.05 48.8%	2.10 47.6%	2.15 46.5%	2.15 46.5%	2.09 47.9%	2.22 45.1%
yes	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.66 60.2%	1.70 58.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.65 60.6%	1.70 58.8%	1.66 60.2%	1.71 58.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.00 50.0%	2.02 49.5%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	2.02 49.5%	1.91 52.4%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.31 76.3%	1.29 77.5%	1.28 78.1%	1.27 78.7%	1.22 82.0%
home_draw	1.20 83.3%	1.24 80.7%	1.22 82.0%	1.18 84.8%	1.24 80.7%	1.17 85.5%

Match center

Aston Villa

W D L W L

11.02 19:30 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 1:0 Brighton

07.02 15:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 1:1 Bournemouth

01.02 14:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 0:1 Brentford

25.01 14:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 2:0 Nyukasl

18.01 16:30 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 0:1 Everton

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

0.8 Scored

0.6 Conceded

7 Points

Leeds

D W L D W

10.02 19:30 UTC Premier League

Leeds 2:2 Chelsea

06.02 20:00 UTC Premier League

Leeds 3:1 Nottingem Forest

31.01 15:00 UTC Premier League

Leeds 0:4 Arsenal

26.01 20:00 UTC Premier League

Leeds 1:1 Everton

17.01 15:00 UTC Premier League

Leeds 1:0 Fulham

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

1.4 Scored

1.6 Conceded

8 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAston Villa - Leeds

Aston Villa

1 matches total

Leeds

Aston Villa: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Leeds: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Aston Villa 2:1 (23.11 14:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 23.11 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 2

Match history

23.11 14:00 UTC

Premier League

Aston Villa

2:1

Leeds