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Premier League England

37 round 15.05.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction

15.05.2026 19:00 UTC 37 round

Finished

Premier League

Aston Villa - Liverpool

England Football

Aston Villa

4 : 2

Finished

Liverpool

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Aston Villa - Liverpool May 15, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Liverpool.

Line favourite market consensus: Liverpool. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.76 / X 3.43 / 2 2.50
1X2 market: Aston Villa 34.4% / X 27.7% / Liverpool 37.9%
Total 2.5: over probability 53.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%

1 34.4%

X 27.7%

2 38.0%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%

Over 2.5 53.0%

Under 2.5 47.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: Liverpool

Main outcome Liverpool

Agreement 1/1

Confidence 37.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Stadium Villa Park (Birmingem, England), 43 033 zritelya (101% pri vmestimosti 42 788)

Referee Kris Kavana (Lankashir)

Start 15.05.2026 19:00 UTC

Match center

Aston Villa - Liverpool

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Aston Villa - Liverpul, 15 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. APL 2025-2026 — Championship England po futbolu, 37 round. Aston Villa - Liverpul, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 4:2

Events 17

Statistics 22

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

39' 39' Yellow Card | M. Cash M. Cash Aston Villa

42' 42' Normal Goal | M. Rogers | assist/sub out: L. Digne M. Rogers Aston Villa

45+3' 45+3' Yellow Card | O. Watkins O. Watkins Aston Villa

46' 46' Substitution 1 | V. Lindelöf | assist/sub out: R. Barkley Victor Lindelöf Aston Villa

52' 52' Normal Goal | V. van Dijk | assist/sub out: D. Szoboszlai Virgil van Dijk Liverpool

57' 57' Normal Goal | O. Watkins | assist/sub out: M. Rogers O. Watkins Aston Villa

62' 62' Yellow Card | J. Gomez Joe Gomez Liverpool

66' 66' Substitution 1 | J. Gomez | assist/sub out: F. Chiesa Joe Gomez Liverpool

Metric Aston Villa Liverpool SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.91 1.55 final

Zablokirovannye udary 3 3 final

Shots off target 2 8 final

Shots on target 9 5 final

Udary vsego 14 16 final

Fouls soversheno 12 9 final

Zheltye kartochki 3 1 final

Offsides 2 3 final

Aston Villa #8 Y. Tielemans, #10 E. Buendía, #11 O. Watkins, #12 L. Digne, #23 E. Martinez, #3 Victor Lindelöf, #14 Pau Torres, #27 M. Rogers, #4 E. Konsa, #7 J. McGinn, #2 M. Cash

Liverpool #6 M. Kerkez, #10 A. Mac Allister, #18 Cody Gakpo, #25 G. Mamardashvili, #73 R. Ngumoha, #4 Virgil van Dijk, #8 Dominik Szoboszlai, #38 Ryan Gravenberch, #5 I. Konate, #17 Curtis Jones, #2 Joe Gomez

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Mac Allister Liverpool football.player.assists 0

A. Mac Allister Liverpool football.player.minutes_played 90

Cody Gakpo Liverpool football.player.assists 0

Cody Gakpo Liverpool football.player.minutes_played 74

Curtis Jones Liverpool football.player.assists 0

Curtis Jones Liverpool football.player.minutes_played 90

Dominik Szoboszlai Liverpool football.player.assists 2

Dominik Szoboszlai Liverpool football.player.minutes_played 90

F. Wirtz Liverpool football.player.assists 0

F. Wirtz Liverpool football.player.minutes_played 24

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.50 market consensus · line only

X 3.43 market consensus · line only

1 2.76 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.43 market consensus · line only

12 1.29 market consensus · line only

1X 1.52 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.45 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.17 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.43 market consensus · line only

2 +1 4.03 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.80 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.03 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.21 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.62 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	2.68 37.3%	2.84 35.2%	2.80 35.7%	2.70 37.0%	2.62 38.2%	2.75 36.4%
X	3.55 28.2%	3.49 28.7%	3.25 30.8%	3.40 29.4%	3.60 27.8%	3.40 29.4%
	2.42 41.3%	2.65 37.7%	2.45 40.8%	2.55 39.2%	2.50 40.0%	2.55 39.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.25 44.4%	2.19 45.7%	2.20 45.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.15 46.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.15 46.5%	2.16 46.3%	2.35 42.6%
yes	1.60 62.5%	1.62 61.7%	1.65 60.6%	1.62 61.7%	1.65 60.6%	1.60 62.5%	1.60 62.5%	1.62 61.7%	1.54 64.9%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.45 69.0%	1.48 67.6%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.40 71.4%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.35 74.1%	1.30 76.9%	1.28 78.1%	1.31 76.3%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.55 64.5%	1.54 64.9%	1.53 65.4%	1.57 63.7%	1.52 65.8%	1.50 66.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.04 96.2%	1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25	—	1.14 87.7%
Over 1.5	1.25 80.0%	1.24 80.7%
Over 1.75	—	1.31 76.3%
Over 2.5	1.75 57.1%	—
Over 3.5	2.88 34.7%	—
Over 4.5	5.25 19.1%	—
Over 5.5	7.50 13.3%	—
Under 0.5	10.00 10.0%	—
Under 1.5	3.95 25.3%	—
Under 2.5	2.05 48.8%	—
Under 3.5	1.40 71.4%	—
Under 4.5	1.15 87.0%	—
Under 5.5	1.08 92.6%	—

Match center

Aston Villa

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Liverpool

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Bubakar Kamara Amadu Onana Alisson Travmirovannye Dzhovanni Leoni Konor Bredli Vataru Endo Ugo Ekitike Stefan Baychetich Aleksander Isak

Match center

Aston Villa

D L L W D

10.05 13:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 2:2 Burnley

03.05 18:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 1:2 Tottenkhem

25.04 11:30 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 0:1 Fulham

19.04 13:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 4:3 Sunderland

12.04 13:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 1:1 Nottingem Forest

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

1.6 Scored

1.8 Conceded

5 Points

Liverpool

D L W W W

09.05 11:30 UTC Premier League

Liverpool 1:1 Chelsea

03.05 14:30 UTC Premier League

Liverpool 2:3 Manchester United

25.04 14:00 UTC Premier League

Liverpool 3:1 Kristal Pelas

19.04 13:00 UTC Premier League

Liverpool 2:1 Everton

11.04 16:30 UTC Premier League

Liverpool 2:0 Fulham

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

2.0 Scored

1.2 Conceded

10 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAston Villa - Liverpool

Aston Villa

1 matches total

Liverpool

Aston Villa: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Liverpool: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Liverpul 0:2 (01.11 20:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (0:2, 01.11 20:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 0

Match history

01.11 20:00 UTC

Premier League

Aston Villa

0:2

Liverpul

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Aston Villa

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Liverpool

36 Games 36

17 Wins 17

8 Draws 8

11 Losses 11

50 Scored 60

46 Conceded 48

59 Points 59

82.13 Attacks 109.83

44.09 Dangerous attacks 57.56

0 Big chances 0

12.5 Shots on goal 15.08

4.36 Shots on target 4.5

03 Sendoffs 0.03 Goly Morgan Rodzhers Lyuka Din 1:0 42' Virdzhil van Deyk Dominik Soboslai 1 52' Olli Uotkins Morgan Rodzhers 2:1 57' Olli Uotkins 3:1 73' Dzhon Makginn Olli Uotkins 4:1 89' Virdzhil van Deyk Dominik Soboslai 4:2 90+2' Nakazaniya Metti Kesh 39' Olli Uotkins 45+3' Dzhozef Gomes 62' Dzhon Makginn 66'

Aston Villa Liverpul 36 Games 36 17 Wins 17 8 Draws 8 11 Losses 11 50 Scored 60 46 Conceded 48 59 Points 59 82.13 Attacks 109.83 44.09 Dangerous attacks 57.56 0 Big chances 0 12.5 Shots on goal 15.08 4.36 Udary v stvor 4.5 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 5.31 Uglovye 5.81 1.11 Offsaydy 2 10.11 Foly 10.19 54.03 % vladeniya myachom 59.36 1.53 Warnings 1.5 0.03 Sendoffs 0.03 Goly Morgan Rodzhers Lyuka Din 1:0 42' Virdzhil van Deyk Dominik Soboslai 1 52' Olli Uotkins Morgan Rodzhers 2:1 57' Olli Uotkins 3:1 73' Dzhon Makginn Olli Uotkins 4:1 89' Virdzhil van Deyk Dominik Soboslai 4:2 90+2' Nakazaniya Metti Kesh 39' Olli Uotkins 45+3' Dzhozef Gomes 62' Dzhon Makginn 66'