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Premier League
Premier League England
05.04.2025 16:30 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2025 16:30 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest

England Football
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
2 : 1
Finished
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest April 5, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Aston Villa.

Line favourite market consensus: Aston Villa. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.03 / X 3.61 / 2 3.88
  • 1X2 market: Aston Villa 48.0% / X 27.0% / Nottingham Forest 25.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 52.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 2.7%
1 47.9%
X 27.0%
2 25.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 2.2%
Over 2.5 52.0%
Under 2.5 48.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2025 16:30 UTC
Match center

Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.88 market consensus · line only
X 3.61 market consensus · line only
1 2.03 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.87 market consensus · line only
12 1.33 market consensus · line only
1X 1.29 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.88 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.04 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.03 49.3%
X 3.61 27.7%
3.88 25.8%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 1.87 53.5%
home_away 1.33 75.2%
home_draw 1.29 77.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
Over 2.5 1.88 53.2%
Under 2.5 2.04 49.0%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.47 68.0%
2.83 35.3%
Match center
Aston Villa
W D W D D
02.04 18:45 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 3:0 BrightonBrighton
26.10 14:00 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 1:1 BournemouthBournemouth
19.10 14:00 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 3:1 FulhamFulham
06.10 13:00 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 0:0 Manchester UnitedManchester United
29.09 13:00 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 2:2 IpswichIpswich
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
1.8 Scored
0.8 Conceded
9 Points
Nottingham Forest
W W W D L
01.04 19:00 UTC Premier League
Nottingham Forest 1:0 Manchester UnitedManchester United
25.10 19:00 UTC Premier League
Nottingham Forest 3:1 Leicester
21.10 19:00 UTC Premier League
Nottingham Forest 1:0 Kristal PelasKristal Pelas
06.10 13:00 UTC Premier League
Nottingham Forest 1:1 ChelseaChelsea
28.09 14:00 UTC Premier League
Nottingham Forest 0:1 FulhamFulham
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.6 Conceded
10 Points