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Premier League England

03.01.2026 12:30 UTC Match prediction

03.01.2026 12:30 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest

England Football

Aston Villa

3 : 1

Finished

Nottingham Forest

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest January 3, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Aston Villa.

Line favourite market consensus: Aston Villa. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.92 / X 3.51 / 2 4.17
1X2 market: Aston Villa 49.8% / X 27.3% / Nottingham Forest 23.0%
Total 2.5: over probability 50.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.6%

1 49.8%

X 27.2%

2 22.9%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.9%

Over 2.5 50.9%

Under 2.5 49.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 03.01.2026 12:30 UTC

Match center

Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 4.19 market consensus · line only

X 3.51 market consensus · line only

1 1.92 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.90 market consensus · line only

12 1.31 market consensus · line only

1X 1.24 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.92 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.51 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 4.03 market consensus · line only

2 +1 7.80 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.89 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.96 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.05 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.73 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.93 51.8%
X	3.52 28.4%
	4.40 22.7%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.90 52.6%	1.95 51.3%	1.96 51.0%	1.91 52.4%	1.95 51.3%	1.91 52.4%
X	3.50 28.6%	3.55 28.2%	3.68 27.2%	3.50 28.6%	3.65 27.4%	3.40 29.4%
	4.00 25.0%	4.00 25.0%	4.27 23.4%	4.00 25.0%	4.25 23.5%	4.33 23.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	Superbet
no	2.00 50.0%	2.12 47.2%	2.02 49.5%	2.00 50.0%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.00 50.0%	2.12 47.2%	2.05 48.8%
yes	1.75 57.1%	1.73 57.8%	1.72 58.1%	1.75 57.1%	1.72 58.1%	1.73 57.8%	1.72 58.1%	1.78 56.2%	1.74 57.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
draw_away	1.85 54.1%	1.94 51.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.93 51.8%	1.93 51.8%	1.95 51.3%
home_away	1.25 80.0%	1.33 75.2%	1.28 78.1%	1.29 77.5%	1.32 75.8%	1.35 74.1%
home_draw	1.22 82.0%	1.26 79.4%	1.22 82.0%	1.26 79.4%	1.26 79.4%	1.24 80.7%

Match center

Aston Villa

L W W W W

30.12 20:15 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 1:4 Arsenal

27.12 17:30 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 2:1 Chelsea

21.12 16:30 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 2:1 Manchester United

14.12 14:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 3:2 West Ham

06.12 12:30 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 2:1 Arsenal

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

2.0 Scored

1.8 Conceded

12 Points

Nottingham Forest

L L L W L

30.12 19:30 UTC Premier League

Nottingham Forest 0:2 Everton

27.12 12:30 UTC Premier League

Nottingham Forest 1:2 Manchester City

22.12 20:00 UTC Premier League

Nottingham Forest 0:1 Fulham

14.12 14:00 UTC Premier League

Nottingham Forest 3:0 Tottenkhem

06.12 15:00 UTC Premier League

Nottingham Forest 0:3 Everton

1 Wins

0 Draws

4 Losses

0.8 Scored

1.6 Conceded

3 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAston Villa - Nottingham Forest

Aston Villa

1 matches total

Nottingham Forest

Aston Villa: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Nottingham Forest: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Aston Villa 2:1 (05.04 16:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 05.04 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 2

Match history

05.04 16:30 UTC

Premier League

Aston Villa

2:1

Nottingem Forest