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Premier League
Premier League England
19.04.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
19.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Aston Villa - Sunderland

England Football
Stadium Villa Park
Capacity 42 788
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
4 : 3
Finished
Sunderland
Sunderland
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Aston Villa — 51%

1 · Aston Villa50.6%
X · draw26.3%
2 · Sunderland23.1%

Model estimate: win Aston Villa 50.6%, draw 26.3%, win Sunderland 23.1%. Model favourite — Aston Villa.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Aston Villa - Sunderland April 19, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Aston Villa.

Strongest: Aston Villa - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.75 / X 3.68 / 2 4.88
  • 1X2 market: Aston Villa 54.4% / X 26.0% / Sunderland 19.6%
  • Glicko: Aston Villa 50.6% / X 26.3% / Sunderland 23.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 45.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 54.5%
X 25.9%
2 19.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.2%
Over 2.5 49.0%
Under 2.5 51.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 53.8%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Start 19.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Stadium Villa Park (Birmingham)
Capacity 42,788

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Aston Villa 51%
💹 Market Aston Villa 5443%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Aston Villa - Sunderland

Aston Villa: Win 1.75 Aston Villa: Draw 3.60 Sunderland Win: 5.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Aston Villa bolshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov Aston Villa menshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total gol…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 4:3
Events 19
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
2' 2' Normal Goal | Ollie Watkins | assist/sub out: John McGinn Ruien Zhang Aston Villa
9' 9' Normal Goal | Chris Rigg | assist/sub out: Noah Sadiki Sunderland
36' 36' Normal Goal | Ollie Watkins | assist/sub out: Ian Maatsen Ruien Zhang Aston Villa
46' 46' Normal Goal | Morgan Rogers | assist/sub out: Ollie Watkins Daniele Minighini Aston Villa
63' 63' Substitution 1 | Chris Rigg | assist/sub out: Chemsdine Talbi Sunderland
63' 63' Substitution 2 | Reinildo Mandava | assist/sub out: Trai Hume F. Passlack Sunderland
63' 63' Substitution 3 | Omar Alderete | assist/sub out: Daniel Ballard A. Knudsen Sunderland
66' 66' Yellow Card | Noah Sadiki Sunderland
Metric Aston Villa Sunderland SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.84 1.73 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 1 final
Shots off target 5 2 final
Shots on target 7 7 final
Udary vsego 15 10 final
Fouls soversheno 11 11 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 3 final
Offsides 0 3 final
Aston Villa #2 M. Cash, #4 E. Konsa, #5 T. Mings, #6 R. Barkley, #7 J. McGinn, #8 Y. Tielemans, #11 O. Watkins, #22 I. Maatsen, #23 E. Martinez, #24 A. Onana, #27 M. Rogers
Sunderland #9 Brian Brobbey, #11 C. Rigg, #13 L. O'Nien, #15 Omar Alderete, #17 Reinildo, #19 H. Diarra, #20 N. Mukiele, #22 Robin Roefs, #27 N. Sadiki, #28 E. Le Fée, #34 G. Xhaka
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Onana Aston Villa football.player.assists 0
A. Onana Aston Villa Dribling popytki 3
A. Onana Aston Villa Edinoborstva vyigrano 5
A. Onana Aston Villa Seyvy 0
A. Onana Aston Villa football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Onana Aston Villa Tochnost pasov % 1
A. Onana Aston Villa Klyuchevye pasy 39
A. Onana Aston Villa Reyting (staryy) 6.9
A. Onana Aston Villa Shots on target 1
A. Onana Aston Villa Bloki 2
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Aston Villa 56.4% 50.6% market and model agree
Draw 25.1% 26.3% draw risk
Sunderland 18.5% 23.1%
xG - 1.48 : 0.91
Total 2.5 Over 45.8% - Under 54.2%
Model check - - Difference 0.06
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.06

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 50.6% / 26.3% / 23.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,567 / 1,519 Aston Villa / Sunderland
RD 73 / 74 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.88 market consensus · no value · model 23.1%
X 3.68 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.75 market consensus · no value · model 50.6%
Double chance
X2 2.06 market consensus · no value · model 49.4%
12 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 73.7%
1X 1.18 market consensus · no value · model 76.9%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.09 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.58 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.45 market consensus · line only
2 +1 9.60 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.96 market consensus · no value · model 45.8%
Under 2.5 1.88 market consensus · no value · model 54.2%
Both teams to score
No 1.90 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.85 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.74 57.5% 1.63 61.4% 1.82 55.0% 1.70 58.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6%
X 3.65 27.4% 4.05 24.7% 3.72 26.9% 3.60 27.8% 3.60 27.8% 3.70 27.0%
4.50 22.2% 5.50 18.2% 5.08 19.7% 4.80 20.8% 4.75 21.1% 5.00 20.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.95 51.3% 1.92 52.1% 1.87 53.5% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.93 51.8% 1.87 53.5% 1.87 53.5% 1.85 54.1%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.89 52.9% 1.85 54.1% 1.83 54.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.80 55.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.00 50.0% 2.07 48.3% 2.00 50.0%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.32 75.8% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.28 78.1% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 1.18 84.8% 1.21 82.6% 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5% 1.21 82.6% 1.14 87.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% — 1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25 — — 1.15 87.0%
Over 1.5 1.30 76.9% — 1.28 78.1%
Over 1.75 — — 1.35 74.1%
Over 2.5 1.90 52.6% 1.92 52.1% —
Over 3.5 3.25 30.8% — —
Over 4.5 6.25 16.0% — —
Under 0.5 9.00 11.1% — —
Under 1.5 3.45 29.0% — —
Under 2.5 1.85 54.1% 1.98 50.5% —
Under 3.5 1.33 75.2% — —
Under 4.5 1.11 90.1% — —
Match center
Aston Villa
Founded 1874
Sunderland
Founded 1879
Match center
Aston Villa

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Sunderland
AA A. Alese Shoulder injury
Aston Villa Founded: 1874
Sunderland Founded: 1879
Match center
Aston Villa
D W L L L
12.04 13:00 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 1:1 Nottingem ForestNottingem Forest
22.03 14:15 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 2:0 West HamWest Ham
15.03 14:00 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 1:3 Manchester UnitedManchester United
04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 1:4 ChelseaChelsea
27.02 20:00 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa 0:2 WolvesWolves
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
4 Points
Sunderland
W W L W D
12.04 13:00 UTC Premier League
Sunderland 1:0 TottenkhemTottenkhem
22.03 12:00 UTC Premier League
Sunderland 2:1 NyukaslNyukasl
14.03 15:00 UTC Premier League
Sunderland 0:1 BrightonBrighton
03.03 19:30 UTC Premier League
Sunderland 1:0 LeedsLeeds
28.02 12:30 UTC Premier League
Sunderland 1:1 BournemouthBournemouth
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.6 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAston Villa - Sunderland

Aston Villa
1 matches total
Sunderland
Aston Villa: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Sunderland: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 21.09 13:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (21.09 13:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

21.09 13:00 UTC Premier League
Aston Villa
1:1
Sunderland
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.