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Premier League
Premier League England
22.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
22.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Bournemouth - Leeds

England Football
Stadium Vitality Stadium
Capacity 12 000
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
2 : 2
Finished
Leeds
Leeds
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Bournemouth — 44%

1 · Bournemouth43.5%
X · draw26.3%
2 · Leeds30.2%

Model estimate: win Bournemouth 43.5%, draw 26.3%, win Leeds 30.2%. Model favourite — Bournemouth.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bournemouth - Leeds April 22, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bournemouth.

Strongest: Bournemouth - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.98 / X 3.58 / 2 3.73
  • 1X2 market: Bournemouth 48.0% / X 26.6% / Leeds 25.5%
  • Glicko: Bournemouth 43.5% / X 26.3% / Leeds 30.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 35.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 48.0%
X 26.5%
2 25.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 55.1%
Under 2.5 44.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/8
Confidence 60.0%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 22.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth)
Capacity 12,000

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Bournemouth 44%
💹 Market Bournemouth 4799%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Bournemouth - Leeds

Bournemouth: Win 1.95 Bournemouth: Draw 3.60 Leeds Win: 3.75 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.73 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Bournemouth bolshe 1.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Bournemouth menshe 1.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Le…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:2
Events 17
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
25' 25' Yellow Card | Eli Junior Kroupi Bournemouth
41' 41' Yellow Card | Álex Jiménez Bournemouth
46' 46' Substitution 1 | J. Bogle | assist/sub out: J. Rodon Caspar Schuetze Leeds
60' 60' Normal Goal Bournemouth
64' 64' Substitution 2 | N. Okafor | assist/sub out: W. Gnonto Leeds
64' 64' Substitution 3 | J. Bijol | assist/sub out: L. Nmecha E. Agbadou Leeds
67' 67' Substitution 3 | D. Brooks | assist/sub out: Rayan Federico Iannaccone Bournemouth
68' 68' Own Goal | James Hill Tanasi Kokkinakis Leeds
Metric Bournemouth Leeds SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.65 0.81 final
Zablokirovannye udary 5 2 final
Shots off target 5 5 final
Shots on target 7 3 final
Udary vsego 17 10 final
Fouls soversheno 6 10 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 0 final
Offsides 1 1 final
Bournemouth #1 D. Petrovic, #3 Adrien Truffert, #5 M. Senesi, #7 D. Brooks, #8 A. Scott, #9 Evanilson, #10 R. Christie, #16 Marcus Tavernier, #20 A. Jimenez, #22 Eli Junior Kroupi, #23 James Hill
Leeds #2 Jayden Bogle, #3 Gabriel Gudmundsson, #4 E. Ampadu, #5 Pascal Struijk, #9 D. Calvert-Lewin, #11 Brenden Aaronson, #15 J. Bijol, #19 N. Okafor, #22 Ao Tanaka, #24 James Justin, #26 K. Darlow
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Adli Bournemouth football.player.assists 0
A. Adli Bournemouth Dribling popytki 3
A. Adli Bournemouth Edinoborstva vyigrano 3
A. Adli Bournemouth Seyvy 0
A. Adli Bournemouth football.player.minutes_played 17
A. Adli Bournemouth Tochnost pasov % 1
A. Adli Bournemouth Klyuchevye pasy 13
A. Adli Bournemouth Reyting (staryy) 6.9
A. Adli Bournemouth Otbory vsego 11
A. Jimenez Bournemouth football.player.assists 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Bournemouth 47.1% 43.5% market and model agree
Draw 26.6% 26.3% draw risk
Leeds 26.3% 30.2%
xG - 1.42 : 1.14
Total 2.5 Over 35.8% - Under 64.2%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 43.5% / 26.3% / 30.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,560 / 1,511 Bournemouth / Leeds
RD 71 / 72 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.73 market consensus · no value · model 30.2%
X 3.58 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.98 market consensus · no value · model 43.5%
Double chance
X2 1.82 market consensus · weak value +2.8% · model 56.5%
12 1.27 market consensus · no value · model 73.7%
1X 1.27 market consensus · no value · model 69.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.86 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.43 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.56 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.98 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.73 market consensus · no value · model 35.8%
Under 2.5 2.12 market consensus · value +36.1% · model 64.2%
Both teams to score
No 2.24 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.60 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.96 51.0% 2.03 49.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.98 50.5% 1.95 51.3%
X 3.60 27.8% 3.74 26.7% 3.40 29.4% 3.60 27.8% 3.65 27.4% 3.60 27.8%
3.55 28.2% 3.90 25.6% 3.60 27.8% 3.75 26.7% 3.70 27.0% 3.80 26.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.17 46.1% 2.40 41.7%
yes 1.62 61.7% 1.61 62.1% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.61 62.1% 1.52 65.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.80 55.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.80 55.6%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.32 75.8% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.27 78.7% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 1.28 78.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.22 82.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.10 90.9%
Over 1.5 1.22 82.0% 1.19 84.0%
Over 1.75 — 1.25 80.0%
Over 2.0 — 1.32 75.8%
Over 2.25 — 1.52 65.8%
Over 2.5 1.70 58.8% 1.81 55.3%
Over 3.5 2.80 35.7% —
Over 4.5 5.00 20.0% —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% —
Under 1.5 4.00 25.0% —
Under 2.5 2.10 47.6% —
Under 3.5 1.42 70.4% —
Under 4.5 1.17 85.5% —
Match center
Bournemouth
Founded 1899
Leeds
Founded 1919
Match center
Bournemouth
W W D D D
18.04 14:00 UTC Premier League
Bournemouth 2:1 NyukaslNyukasl
11.04 11:30 UTC Premier League
Bournemouth 2:1 ArsenalArsenal
20.03 20:00 UTC Premier League
Bournemouth 2:2 Manchester UnitedManchester United
14.03 15:00 UTC Premier League
Bournemouth 0:0 BurnleyBurnley
03.03 19:30 UTC Premier League
Bournemouth 0:0 BrentfordBrentford
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.8 Conceded
9 Points
Leeds
W W D D L
18.04 14:00 UTC Premier League
Leeds 3:0 WolvesWolves
13.04 19:00 UTC Premier League
Leeds 2:1 Manchester UnitedManchester United
21.03 20:00 UTC Premier League
Leeds 0:0 BrentfordBrentford
15.03 14:00 UTC Premier League
Leeds 0:0 Kristal PelasKristal Pelas
03.03 19:30 UTC Premier League
Leeds 0:1 SunderlandSunderland
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.4 Conceded
8 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBournemouth - Leeds

Bournemouth
1 matches total
Leeds
Bournemouth: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Leeds: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (2:2, 27.09 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (27.09 14:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 2

Match history

27.09 14:00 UTC Premier League
Bournemouth
2:2
Leeds
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.