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Premier League
Premier League England
11.04.2026 14:00 UTC Match prediction
11.04.2026 14:00 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Brentford - Everton

England Football
Stadium Brentford Kommyuniti
Brentford
Brentford
2 : 2
Finished
Everton
Everton
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Brentford — 43%

1 · Brentford42.8%
X · draw28.0%
2 · Everton29.2%

Model estimate: win Brentford 42.8%, draw 28.0%, win Everton 29.2%. Model favourite — Brentford.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Brentford - Everton April 11, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Brentford.

Strongest: Brentford - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.15 / X 3.31 / 2 3.52
  • 1X2 market: Brentford 44.3% / X 28.7% / Everton 27.0%
  • Glicko: Brentford 42.8% / X 28.0% / Everton 29.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 38.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%
1 44.2%
X 28.7%
2 27.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 47.4%
Under 2.5 52.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 44.1%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 11.04.2026 14:00 UTC
Stadium Brentford Kommyuniti

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Brentford 43%
💹 Market Brentford 4427%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Brentford - Everton

Brentford: Win 2.10 Brentford: Draw 3.30 Everton Win: 3.60 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.00 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Brentford bolshe 1.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Brentford menshe 1.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Everton …

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:2
Events 10
Statistics 24
Lineups 35
min Event Player Team
2' 2' Yellow Card | Jordan Pickford P. Pagis Everton
3' 3' Penalty | Igor Thiago Brentford
26' 26' Normal Goal | Beto | assist/sub out: Idrissa Gueye Everton
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Mikkel Damsgaard | assist/sub out: Reiss Nelson Sapir Koen Brentford
47' 47' Yellow Card | James Garner Tyrick Mitchell Everton
75' 75' Substitution 1 | Beto | assist/sub out: Thierno Barry Everton
75' 75' Substitution 2 | Dwight McNeil | assist/sub out: Tyrique George Lukas Steindl Everton
75' 75' Substitution 3 | Idrissa Gueye | assist/sub out: Tim Iroegbunam D. Namaso Everton
Metric Brentford Everton SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.84 1.53 final
Zablokirovannye udary 6 4 final
Shots off target 7 3 final
Shots on target 4 7 final
Udary vsego 17 14 final
Fouls soversheno 6 7 final
Zheltye kartochki 0 2 final
Offsides 0 1 final
Brentford #1 J. Pickford, #6 James Tarkowski, #7 Dwight McNeil, #9 Beto, #10 I. Ndiaye, #15 J. O'Brien, #16 V. Mykolenko, #22 Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, #27 I. Gueye, #37 J. Garner
Everton #1 C. Kelleher, #4 Sepp van den Berg, #7 K. Schade, #8 M. Jensen, #9 I. Thiago, #18 Y. Yarmolyuk, #19 Dango Ouattara, #22 N. Collins, #23 Keane Lewis-Potter, #24 M. Damsgaard, #33 M. Kayode
Player Team Metric SStats
Beto Brentford football.player.assists 0
Beto Brentford Dribling popytki 2
Beto Brentford Dribling uspeshno 1
Beto Brentford Edinoborstva vyigrano 9
Beto Brentford football.player.goals 1
Beto Brentford Conceded golov 1
Beto Brentford Seyvy 0
Beto Brentford football.player.minutes_played 74
Beto Brentford Tochnost pasov % 1
Beto Brentford Klyuchevye pasy 15
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Brentford 45.0% 42.8% market and model agree
Draw 28.2% 28.0% draw risk
Everton 26.8% 29.2%
xG - 1.29 : 1.02
Total 2.5 Over 38.9% - Under 61.1%
Model check - - Difference 0.02
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 42.8% / 28.0% / 29.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,540 / 1,541 Brentford / Everton
RD 72 / 73 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.52 market consensus · no value · model 29.2%
X 3.31 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.15 market consensus · no value · model 42.8%
Double chance
X2 1.69 market consensus · no value · model 57.2%
12 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 72.1%
1X 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 70.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.73 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.33 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.41 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.74 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.01 market consensus · no value · model 38.9%
Under 2.5 1.81 market consensus · value +10.5% · model 61.1%
Both teams to score
No 1.99 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.76 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.12 47.2% 2.13 47.0% 2.22 45.1% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5%
X 3.25 30.8% 3.40 29.4% 3.44 29.1% 3.20 31.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.30 30.3%
3.40 29.4% 3.60 27.8% 3.66 27.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.60 27.8% 3.55 28.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.05 48.8% 2.03 49.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.98 50.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 1.94 51.6%
yes 1.73 57.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.78 56.2% 1.83 54.6% 1.73 57.8% 1.77 56.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.67 59.9% 1.74 57.5% 1.65 60.6% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.67 59.9%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.32 75.8% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.28 78.1% 1.32 75.8% 1.25 80.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.06 94.3% — 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.25 — — 1.17 85.5%
Over 1.5 1.30 76.9% — 1.30 76.9%
Over 1.75 — — 1.37 73.0%
Over 2.5 1.95 51.3% 2.06 48.5% —
Over 3.5 3.35 29.9% — —
Over 4.5 6.50 15.4% — —
Under 0.5 8.50 11.8% — —
Under 1.5 3.35 29.9% — —
Under 2.5 1.83 54.6% 1.84 54.4% —
Under 3.5 1.30 76.9% — —
Under 4.5 1.10 90.9% — —
Match center
Brentford
Founded 1889
Everton
Founded 1878
Match center
Brentford
RH R. Henry Muscle Injury
JD J. Dasilva Knee Injury
Everton
JG J. Grealish Foot Injury
CA C. Alcaraz Injury
Brentford Founded: 1889
Everton Founded: 1878
Match center
Brentford
D D D W L
21.03 20:00 UTC Premier League
Brentford 0:0 LeedsLeeds
16.03 20:00 UTC Premier League
Brentford 2:2 WolvesWolves
03.03 19:30 UTC Premier League
Brentford 0:0 BournemouthBournemouth
28.02 15:00 UTC Premier League
Brentford 4:3 BurnleyBurnley
21.02 15:00 UTC Premier League
Brentford 0:2 BrightonBrighton
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.4 Conceded
6 Points
Everton
W L W W L
21.03 17:30 UTC Premier League
Everton 3:0 ChelseaChelsea
14.03 17:30 UTC Premier League
Everton 0:2 ArsenalArsenal
03.03 19:30 UTC Premier League
Everton 2:0 BurnleyBurnley
28.02 15:00 UTC Premier League
Everton 3:2 NyukaslNyukasl
23.02 20:00 UTC Premier League
Everton 0:1 Manchester UnitedManchester United
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.0 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBrentford - Everton

Brentford
1 matches total
Everton
Brentford: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Everton: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Brentford 4:2 (04.01 15:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 6 goals (4:2, 04.01 15:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 4

Match history

04.01 15:00 UTC Premier League
Brentford
4:2
Everton
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.