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Premier League England

21.03.2026 12:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction

21.03.2026 12:30 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Brighton - Liverpool

England Football

Stadium Amex Stadium

Referee Darren England

Capacity 31 800

Brighton

2 : 1

Finished

Liverpool

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Liverpool — 47%

1 · Brighton27.6%

X · draw25.9%

2 · Liverpool46.5%

Model estimate: win Brighton 27.6%, draw 25.9%, win Liverpool 46.5%. Model favourite — Liverpool.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Brighton - Liverpool March 21, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Liverpool.

Strongest: Liverpool - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.15 / X 3.67 / 2 2.17
1X2 market: Brighton 30.3% / X 25.9% / Liverpool 43.9%
Glicko: Brighton 27.6% / X 25.9% / Liverpool 46.5%
Total 2.5: over probability 31.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%

1 30.2%

X 25.9%

2 43.9%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%

Over 2.5 58.8%

Under 2.5 41.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 45.1%

Total Under 2.5

Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 21.03.2026 12:30 UTC

Stadium Amex Stadium (Brighton)

Referee Darren England

Capacity 31,800

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Liverpool 47%

💹 Market Liverpool 4385%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Brighton - Liverpool

Brighton: Win 3.20 Brighton: Draw 3.78 Liverpool Win: 2.22 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.63 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.35 Individualnyy total golov Brighton bolshe 1.5: 2.41 Individualnyy total golov Brighton menshe 1.5: 1.60 Individualnyy total golov Liverpool …

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:1

Events 22

Statistics 24

Lineups 80

min Event Player Team

8' 8' Substitution 1 | H. Ekitike | assist/sub out: Curtis Jones H. Ekitike Liverpool

14' 14' Normal Goal | Danny Welbeck | assist/sub out: D. Gómez Danny Welbeck Brighton

25' 25' Yellow Card | Y. Minteh Y. Minteh Brighton

30' 30' Normal Goal Liverpool

45' 45' Yellow Card | Ibrahima Konaté I. Konate Liverpool

45+5' 45+5' Yellow Card | D. Gómez Diego Gómez Brighton

48' 48' Yellow Card | Danny Welbeck Danny Welbeck Brighton

56' 56' Normal Goal | Danny Welbeck Danny Welbeck Brighton

Metric Brighton Liverpool SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.17 1.03 final

Zablokirovannye udary 2 3 final

Shots off target 7 4 final

Shots on target 7 5 final

Udary vsego 16 12 final

Fouls soversheno 11 11 final

Zheltye kartochki 5 5 final

Offsides 2 1 final

Brighton #4 Virgil van Dijk, #5 I. Konate, #6 M. Kerkez, #7 F. Wirtz, #8 Dominik Szoboszlai, #10 A. Mac Allister, #18 Cody Gakpo, #22 H. Ekitike, #25 G. Mamardashvili, #30 J. Frimpong, #38 Ryan Gravenberch

Liverpool #1 Bart Verbruggen, #5 Lewis Dunk, #6 Jan Paul van Hecke, #11 Y. Minteh, #13 Jack Hinshelwood, #18 Danny Welbeck, #20 James Milner, #24 Ferdi Kadıoğlu, #25 Diego Gómez, #27 Mats Wieffer, #30 Pascal Groß

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Mac Allister Liverpool football.player.assists 0

A. Mac Allister Liverpool football.player.minutes_played 90

A. Robertson Liverpool football.player.assists 0

A. Robertson Liverpool football.player.minutes_played 14

Bart Verbruggen Liverpool Dribling popytki 1

Bart Verbruggen Liverpool Edinoborstva vyigrano 1

Bart Verbruggen Liverpool Seyvy 1

Bart Verbruggen Liverpool Klyuchevye pasy 43

Bart Verbruggen Liverpool Reyting 4

Bart Verbruggen Liverpool Reyting (staryy) 7.5

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Brighton 30.3% 27.6%

Draw 26.1% 25.9% draw risk

Liverpool 43.6% 46.5% market and model agree

xG - 1.08 : 1.49

Total 2.5 Over 31.9% - Under 68.1%

Model check - - Difference 0.03

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 27.6% / 25.9% / 46.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,542 / 1,566 Brighton / Liverpool

RD 73 / 75 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.18 market consensus · no value · model 46.5%

X 3.67 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 3.14 market consensus · no value · model 27.6%

Double chance

X2 1.36 market consensus · no value · model 72.5%

12 1.28 market consensus · no value · model 74.1%

1X 1.69 market consensus · no value · model 53.5%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.37 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.12 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.12 market consensus · line only

2 +1 3.15 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.62 market consensus · no value · model 31.9%

Under 2.5 2.31 market consensus · weak value +57.3% · model 68.1%

Both teams to score

No 2.45 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.52 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	3.08 32.5%
X	3.65 27.4%
	2.30 43.5%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	3.20 31.3%	3.10 32.3%	3.24 30.9%	3.00 33.3%	3.20 31.3%	3.20 31.3%
X	3.70 27.0%	3.75 26.7%	3.77 26.5%	3.50 28.6%	3.60 27.8%	3.70 27.0%
	2.05 48.8%	2.20 45.5%	2.26 44.3%	2.15 46.5%	2.15 46.5%	2.15 46.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	2.40 41.7%	2.59 38.6%	2.45 40.8%	2.40 41.7%	2.38 42.0%	2.40 41.7%	2.50 40.0%	2.45 40.8%	2.41 41.5%
yes	1.53 65.4%	1.51 66.2%	1.50 66.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.35 74.1%	1.39 71.9%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.38 72.5%	1.30 76.9%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.32 75.8%	1.29 77.5%	1.28 78.1%	1.27 78.7%	1.22 82.0%
home_draw	1.70 58.8%	1.71 58.5%	1.65 60.6%	1.67 59.9%	1.72 58.1%	1.67 59.9%

Match center

Brighton

Founded 1901

Liverpool

Founded 1892

Match center

Brighton

AW A. Webster Knee Injury

ST S. Tzimas Knee Injury

Liverpool

AB Alisson Becker Injury

MS Mohamed Salah Muscle Injury

Brighton Founded: 1901

Liverpool Founded: 1892

Match center

Brighton

W L W W L

14.03 15:00 UTC Premier League

Brighton 1:0 Sunderland

04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Brighton 0:1 Arsenal

01.03 14:00 UTC Premier League

Brighton 2:1 Nottingem Forest

21.02 15:00 UTC Premier League

Brighton 2:0 Brentford

11.02 19:30 UTC Premier League

Brighton 0:1 Aston Villa

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

1.0 Scored

0.6 Conceded

9 Points

Liverpool

D L W W W

15.03 16:30 UTC Premier League

Liverpool 1:1 Tottenkhem

03.03 20:15 UTC Premier League

Liverpool 1:2 Wolves

28.02 15:00 UTC Premier League

Liverpool 5:2 West Ham

22.02 14:00 UTC Premier League

Liverpool 1:0 Nottingem Forest

11.02 20:15 UTC Premier League

Liverpool 1:0 Sunderland

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.8 Scored

1.0 Conceded

10 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyBrighton - Liverpool

Brighton

2 matches total

Liverpool

Brighton: 1 (50%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Liverpool: 1 (50%)

Biggest win Liverpul 0:2 (13.12 15:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 5 goals (3:2, 19.05 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 4

4 Goals conceded 3

Match history

13.12 15:00 UTC

Premier League

Brighton

0:2

Liverpul

19.05 19:00 UTC

Premier League

Brighton

3:2

Liverpul

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.