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Premier League
Premier League England
11.04.2026 14:00 UTC Match prediction
11.04.2026 14:00 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Burnley - Brighton

England Football
Stadium Terf Mur
Burnley
Burnley
0 : 2
Finished
Brighton
Brighton
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Brighton — 56%

1 · Burnley19.5%
X · draw24.5%
2 · Brighton ✓ Pick56.0%

Model estimate: win Burnley 19.5%, draw 24.5%, win Brighton 56.0%. Model favourite — Brighton.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Burnley - Brighton April 11, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Brighton.

Strongest: Brighton - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.82 / X 4.11 / 2 1.67
  • 1X2 market: Burnley 19.8% / X 23.2% / Brighton 57.0%
  • Glicko: Burnley 19.5% / X 24.5% / Brighton 56.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 35.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 19.8%
X 23.2%
2 ✓ Pick 57.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%
Over 2.5 57.1%
Under 2.5 42.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 56.3%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 11.04.2026 14:00 UTC
Stadium Terf Mur (Bernli)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Brighton 56%
💹 Market Brighton 5696%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Burnley - Brighton

Burnley: Win 4.75 Burnley: Draw 4.00 Brighton Win: 1.70 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.73 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Burnley bolshe 0.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total golov Burnley menshe 0.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Brighton bolshe…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:2
Events 16
Statistics 24
Lineups 38
min Event Player Team
7' 7' Goal Disallowed - offside | Jaidon Anthony Burnley
30' 30' Yellow Card | Maxime Estève Burnley
43' 43' Normal Goal | Mats Wieffer | assist/sub out: Pascal Gross Brighton
48' 48' Yellow Card | Jan Paul van Hecke Brighton
50' 50' Goal Disallowed - offside | Bashir Humphreys Burnley
60' 60' Yellow Card | Florentino Luís J. Obrian Burnley
67' 67' Substitution 1 | Lesley Ugochukwu | assist/sub out: Jacob Bruun Larsen Burnley
75' 75' Substitution 1 | Danny Welbeck | assist/sub out: Georginio Rutter Raúl Chasco Brighton
Metric Burnley Brighton SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.88 1.93 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 4 final
Shots off target 3 3 final
Shots on target 5 6 final
Udary vsego 10 13 final
Fouls soversheno 7 11 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 1 final
Offsides 2 1 final
Burnley #1 M. Dúbravka, #3 Q. Hartman, #5 M. Estève, #8 L. Ugochukwu, #10 M. Edwards, #11 J. Anthony, #12 B. Humphreys, #16 Florentino, #18 Hjalmar Ekdal, #19 Z. Flemming, #20 J. Ward-Prowse
Brighton #1 Bart Verbruggen, #6 Jan Paul van Hecke, #11 Y. Minteh, #13 Jack Hinshelwood, #18 Danny Welbeck, #21 Olivier Boscagli, #24 Ferdi Kadıoğlu, #25 Diego Gómez, #26 Yasin Ayari, #27 Mats Wieffer, #30 Pascal Groß
Player Team Metric SStats
Bart Verbruggen Brighton football.player.assists 0
Bart Verbruggen Brighton Seyvy 0
Bart Verbruggen Brighton football.player.minutes_played 90
Bart Verbruggen Brighton Klyuchevye pasy 46
Bart Verbruggen Brighton Reyting 4
Bart Verbruggen Brighton Reyting (staryy) 8.9
Bart Verbruggen Brighton Otbory vsego 41
C. Kostoulas Brighton Seyvy 0
Carlos Baleba Brighton football.player.assists 0
Carlos Baleba Brighton Edinoborstva vsego 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Burnley 20.6% 19.5%
Draw 23.0% 24.5% draw risk
Brighton 56.4% 56.0% market and model agree
xG - 0.86 : 1.65
Total 2.5 Over 35.0% - Under 65.0%
Model check - - Difference 0.02
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 19.5% / 24.5% / 56.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,370 / 1,551 Burnley / Brighton
RD 76 / 72 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.67 market consensus · no value · model 56.0%
X 4.11 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 4.82 market consensus · no value · model 19.5%
Double chance
X2 1.18 market consensus · no value · model 80.5%
12 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 75.5%
1X 2.19 market consensus · no value · model 44.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.17 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.01 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.65 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.13 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.67 market consensus · no value · model 35.0%
Under 2.5 2.22 market consensus · value +44.2% · model 65.0%
Both teams to score
No 2.14 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.66 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
4.40 22.7% 5.00 20.0% 4.98 20.1% 4.50 22.2% 4.75 21.1% 5.00 20.0%
X 3.90 25.6% 4.30 23.3% 4.37 22.9% 4.00 25.0% 4.10 24.4% 4.25 23.5%
1.70 58.8% 1.64 61.0% 1.71 58.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.05 48.8% 2.17 46.1% 2.13 47.0% 2.15 46.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2% 2.25 44.4% 2.15 46.5% 2.11 47.4%
yes 1.73 57.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.65 60.6% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.20 83.3% 1.21 82.6% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.21 82.6% 1.14 87.7%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.23 81.3% 1.20 83.3%
home_draw 2.10 47.6% 2.27 44.1% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.20 45.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.08 92.6%
Over 1.5 1.22 82.0% — 1.18 84.8%
Over 1.75 — — 1.22 82.0%
Over 2.0 — — 1.28 78.1%
Over 2.5 1.73 57.8% — —
Over 2.75 — 1.84 54.4% —
Over 3.5 2.85 35.1% — —
Over 4.5 5.25 19.1% — —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 4.20 23.8% — —
Under 2.5 2.10 47.6% — —
Under 2.75 — 2.06 48.5% —
Under 3.5 1.42 70.4% — —
Under 4.5 1.15 87.0% — —
Match center
Burnley
Founded 1882
Brighton
Founded 1901
Match center
Burnley
CR C. Roberts Muscle Injury
JC J. Cullen Knee Injury
Brighton
LD L. Dunk Yellow Cards
AW A. Webster Knee Injury
Burnley Founded: 1882
Brighton Founded: 1901
Match center
Burnley
L D L L D
21.03 15:00 UTC Premier League
Burnley 1:3 FulhamFulham
14.03 15:00 UTC Premier League
Burnley 0:0 BournemouthBournemouth
03.03 19:30 UTC Premier League
Burnley 0:2 EvertonEverton
28.02 15:00 UTC Premier League
Burnley 3:4 BrentfordBrentford
21.02 15:00 UTC Premier League
Burnley 1:1 ChelseaChelsea
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
2 Points
Brighton
W W L W W
21.03 12:30 UTC Premier League
Brighton 2:1 LiverpulLiverpul
14.03 15:00 UTC Premier League
Brighton 1:0 SunderlandSunderland
04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League
Brighton 0:1 ArsenalArsenal
01.03 14:00 UTC Premier League
Brighton 2:1 Nottingem ForestNottingem Forest
21.02 15:00 UTC Premier League
Brighton 2:0 BrentfordBrentford
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.6 Conceded
12 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBurnley - Brighton

Burnley
1 matches total
Brighton
Burnley: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Brighton: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Brighton 0:2 (03.01 15:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (0:2, 03.01 15:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 0

Match history

03.01 15:00 UTC Premier League
Burnley
0:2
Brighton
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.