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Premier League England

22.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction

22.04.2026 19:00 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Burnley - Manchester City

England Football

Stadium Turf Moor

Capacity 22 546

Burnley

0 : 1

Finished

Manchester City

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Manchester City — 77%

1 · Burnley7.5%

market6%

X · draw15.7%

market11%

2 · Manchester City ✓ Pick76.8%

market83%

Model estimate: win Burnley 7.5%, draw 15.7%, win Manchester City 76.8%. Model favourite — Manchester City.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Burnley - Manchester City April 22, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Manchester City.

Strongest: Manchester City - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 17.30 / X 8.73 / 2 1.15
1X2 market: Burnley 5.6% / X 11.0% / Manchester City 83.4%
Glicko: Burnley 7.5% / X 15.7% / Manchester City 76.8%
Total 2.5: over probability 13.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.2%

1 5.5%

X 11.0%

2 ✓ Pick 83.5%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.5%

Over 2.5 71.6%

Under 2.5 28.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome

Agreement 10/11

Confidence 82.2%

Total Under 2.5

Score 0:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 22.04.2026 19:00 UTC

Stadium Turf Moor (Burnley)

Capacity 22,546

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Manchester City 77%

💹 Market Manchester City 8339%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Burnley - Manchester City

Burnley: Win 15.00 Burnley: Draw 9.00 Manchester City Win: 1.14 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Burnley bolshe 0.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov Burnley menshe 0.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov Manches…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:1

Events 8

Statistics 22

Lineups 39

min Event Player Team

5' 5' Normal Goal | Erling Haaland | assist/sub out: J. Doku L. Fabianski Manchester City

65' 65' Substitution 1 | R. Aït-Nouri | assist/sub out: Nico González R. van Duiven Manchester City

65' 65' Substitution 2 | A. Semenyo | assist/sub out: Savinho Yannick Baluska Manchester City

72' 72' Substitution 2 | L. Tchaouna | assist/sub out: L. Foster Burnley

82' 82' Substitution 5 | B. Humphreys | assist/sub out: Florentino Burnley

82' 82' Substitution 4 | Z. Flemming | assist/sub out: A. Broja Burnley

87' 87' Substitution 9 | J. Anthony | assist/sub out: M. Trésor Burnley

87' 87' Substitution 10 | J. Laurent | assist/sub out: M. Edwards Gabriele Vulpitta Burnley

Metric Burnley Manchester City SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.63 3.36 final

Zablokirovannye udary 4 10 final

Shots off target 4 9 final

Shots on target 1 9 final

Udary vsego 9 28 final

Fouls soversheno 10 12 final

Offsides 4 1 final

Ball possession, % 35 65 final

Burnley #1 M. Dúbravka, #2 K. Walker, #3 Q. Hartman, #5 M. Estève, #11 J. Anthony, #12 B. Humphreys, #17 L. Tchaouna, #18 Hjalmar Ekdal, #19 Z. Flemming, #20 J. Ward-Prowse, #29 J. Laurent

Manchester City #9 E. Haaland, #10 R. Cherki, #11 J. Doku, #15 M. Guehi, #20 B. Silva, #21 R. Ait-Nouri, #25 G. Donnarumma, #27 M. Nunes, #33 N. O'Reilly, #42 A. Semenyo, #45 A. Khusanov

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Broja Burnley football.player.assists 0

A. Broja Burnley Dribling popytki 2

A. Broja Burnley Edinoborstva vyigrano 2

A. Broja Burnley Fouls soversheno 1

A. Broja Burnley Conceded golov 1

A. Broja Burnley Seyvy 0

A. Broja Burnley football.player.minutes_played 8

A. Broja Burnley Klyuchevye pasy 1

A. Broja Burnley Reyting (staryy) 6.6

A. Broja Burnley Otbory vsego 1

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Burnley 5.2% 7.5%

Draw 10.5% 15.7% draw risk

Manchester City 84.3% 76.8% market and model agree

xG - 0.58 : 2.33

Total 2.5 Over 13.7% - Under 86.3%

Model check - - Difference 0.07

Market vs Glicko gap: 0.07

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 7.5% / 15.7% / 76.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,354 / 1,675 Burnley / Manchester City

RD 75 / 74 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.15 market consensus · no value · model 76.8%

X 8.73 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

Double chance

X2 1.02 market consensus · no value · model 92.5%

12 1.07 market consensus · no value · model 84.3%

1X 5.30 market consensus · no value · model 23.2%

Handicap

2 +0.5 1.13 market consensus · line only

2 +1 1.18 market consensus · line only

1 +0.5 5.40 market consensus · line only

1 +1 4.49 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 13.7%

Under 2.5 3.31 market consensus · weak value +185.6% · model 86.3%

Both teams to score

No 1.80 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.95 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	16.00 6.3%	19.00 5.3%	15.00 6.7%	15.00 6.7%	19.50 5.1%	18.00 5.6%
X	7.00 14.3%	9.60 10.4%	8.00 12.5%	9.00 11.1%	8.25 12.1%	9.50 10.5%
	1.16 86.2%	1.16 86.2%	1.15 87.0%	1.14 87.7%	1.17 85.5%	1.13 88.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.80 55.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.85 54.1%	1.75 57.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.91 52.4%	1.75 57.1%	1.74 57.5%	1.80 55.6%
yes	1.95 51.3%	1.98 50.5%	1.91 52.4%	2.00 50.0%	1.95 51.3%	1.91 52.4%	1.95 51.3%	1.98 50.5%	1.93 51.8%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.03 97.1%	1.03 97.1%	1.03 97.1%	1.02 98.0%	1.03 97.1%	1.02 98.0%
home_away	1.08 92.6%	1.08 92.6%	1.08 92.6%	1.07 93.5%	1.09 91.7%	1.06 94.3%
home_draw	5.00 20.0%	6.00 16.7%	5.00 20.0%	5.50 18.2%	5.50 18.2%	5.50 18.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.5	1.09 91.7%	1.05 95.2%
Over 1.75	—	1.06 94.3%
Over 2.0	—	1.08 92.6%
Over 2.25	—	1.19 84.0%
Over 2.5	1.33 75.2%	1.30 76.9%
Over 2.75	—	1.36 73.5%
Over 3.5	1.83 54.6%	—
Over 4.5	2.88 34.7%	—
Over 5.5	5.00 20.0%	—
Under 1.5	7.00 14.3%	—
Under 2.5	3.25 30.8%	—
Under 3.5	1.95 51.3%	—
Under 4.5	1.40 71.4%	—
Under 5.5	1.17 85.5%	—

Match center

Burnley

Founded 1882

Manchester City

Founded 1880

Match center

Burnley

L L L D L

19.04 13:00 UTC Premier League

Burnley 1:4 Nottingem Forest

11.04 14:00 UTC Premier League

Burnley 0:2 Brighton

21.03 15:00 UTC Premier League

Burnley 1:3 Fulham

14.03 15:00 UTC Premier League

Burnley 0:0 Bournemouth

03.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Burnley 0:2 Everton

0 Wins

1 Draws

4 Losses

0.4 Scored

2.2 Conceded

1 Points

Manchester City

W W D D W

19.04 15:30 UTC Premier League

Manchester City 2:1 Arsenal

12.04 15:30 UTC Premier League

Manchester City 3:0 Chelsea

14.03 20:00 UTC Premier League

Manchester City 1:1 West Ham

04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Manchester City 2:2 Nottingem Forest

28.02 17:30 UTC Premier League

Manchester City 1:0 Leeds

3 Wins

2 Draws

0 Losses

1.8 Scored

0.8 Conceded

11 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyBurnley - Manchester City

Burnley

1 matches total

Manchester City

Burnley: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Manchester City: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Manchester City 1:5 (27.09 14:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 6 goals (1:5, 27.09 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 5

5 Goals conceded 1

Match history

27.09 14:00 UTC

Premier League

Burnley

1:5

Manchester City

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.