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Premier League England

12.04.2026 15:30 UTC Match prediction

12.04.2026 15:30 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Chelsea - Manchester City

England Football

Stadium Stamford Bridge

Capacity 41 841

Chelsea

0 : 3

Finished

Manchester City

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Manchester City — 49%

1 · Chelsea26.2%

X · draw25.3%

2 · Manchester City48.5%

Model estimate: win Chelsea 26.2%, draw 25.3%, win Manchester City 48.5%. Model favourite — Manchester City.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Chelsea - Manchester City April 12, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Manchester City.

Strongest: Manchester City - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.49 / X 3.87 / 2 1.99
1X2 market: Chelsea 27.3% / X 24.6% / Manchester City 48.0%
Glicko: Chelsea 26.2% / X 25.3% / Manchester City 48.5%
Total 2.5: over probability 43.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.7%

1 27.4%

X 24.7%

2 48.0%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.5%

Over 2.5 62.6%

Under 2.5 37.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 47.7%

Total Under 2.5

Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 12.04.2026 15:30 UTC

Stadium Stamford Bridge (London)

Capacity 41,841

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Manchester City 49%

💹 Market Manchester City 4804%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Chelsea - Manchester City

Chelsea: Win 3.40 Chelsea: Draw 4.00 Manchester City Win: 1.95 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.30 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Chelsea bolshe 1.5: 2.38 Individualnyy total golov Chelsea menshe 1.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov Manchest…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:3

Events 16

Statistics 24

Lineups 38

min Event Player Team

12' 12' Yellow Card | Estêvão Chelsea

38' 38' Yellow Card | Antoine Semenyo Yannick Baluska Manchester City

51' 51' Normal Goal | Nico O'Reilly | assist/sub out: Rayan Cherki Manchester City

54' 54' Yellow Card | Marc Cucurella Chelsea

57' 57' Normal Goal | Marc Guéhi | assist/sub out: Rayan Cherki Manchester City

64' 64' Substitution 1 | Nico O'Reilly | assist/sub out: Rayan Aït-Nouri Manchester City

67' 67' Substitution 1 | Estêvão | assist/sub out: Alejandro Garnacho Chelsea

67' 67' Substitution 2 | Andrey Santos | assist/sub out: Roméo Lavia Chelsea

Metric Chelsea Manchester City SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.14 2.29 final

Zablokirovannye udary 5 6 final

Shots off target 4 4 final

Shots on target 3 8 final

Udary vsego 12 18 final

Fouls soversheno 10 15 final

Zheltye kartochki 3 1 final

Offsides 6 0 final

Chelsea #1 Robert Sánchez, #3 M. Cucurella, #7 P. Neto, #10 C. Palmer, #17 Andrey Santos, #20 Joao Pedro, #21 Jorrel Hato, #25 M. Caicedo, #27 M. Gusto, #29 Wesley Fofana, #41 Estêvão

Manchester City #9 E. Haaland, #10 R. Cherki, #11 J. Doku, #15 M. Guehi, #16 Rodri, #20 B. Silva, #25 G. Donnarumma, #27 M. Nunes, #33 N. O'Reilly, #42 A. Semenyo, #45 A. Khusanov

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Khusanov Manchester City football.player.assists 0

A. Khusanov Manchester City Edinoborstva vsego 1

A. Khusanov Manchester City Edinoborstva vyigrano 3

A. Khusanov Manchester City Seyvy 0

A. Khusanov Manchester City football.player.minutes_played 90

A. Khusanov Manchester City Tochnost pasov % 2

A. Khusanov Manchester City Klyuchevye pasy 77

A. Khusanov Manchester City Reyting (staryy) 7.6

A. Khusanov Manchester City Shots on target 1

A. Khusanov Manchester City Perekhvaty 2

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Chelsea 27.8% 26.2%

Draw 25.4% 25.3% draw risk

Manchester City 46.9% 48.5% market and model agree

xG - 1.08 : 1.56

Total 2.5 Over 43.2% - Under 56.9%

Model check - - Difference 0.02

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 26.2% / 25.3% / 48.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,568 / 1,653 Chelsea / Manchester City

RD 74 / 76 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.99 market consensus · no value · model 48.5%

X 3.87 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 3.49 market consensus · no value · model 26.2%

Double chance

X2 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 73.8%

12 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 74.7%

1X 1.84 market consensus · no value · model 51.5%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.32 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.10 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.96 market consensus · line only

2 +1 2.67 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.50 market consensus · no value · model 43.2%

Under 2.5 2.51 market consensus · value +42.7% · model 56.9%

Both teams to score

No 2.57 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.48 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	3.40 29.4%	3.55 28.2%	3.68 27.2%	3.40 29.4%	3.50 28.6%	3.50 28.6%
X	3.80 26.3%	3.90 25.6%	4.03 24.8%	3.70 27.0%	3.90 25.6%	3.80 26.3%
	1.95 51.3%	1.99 50.3%	2.02 49.5%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	2.00 50.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	2.50 40.0%	2.73 36.6%	2.48 40.3%	2.50 40.0%	2.50 40.0%	2.60 38.5%	2.63 38.0%	2.55 39.2%	2.62 38.2%
yes	1.50 66.7%	1.46 68.5%	1.49 67.1%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.45 69.0%	1.50 66.7%	1.44 69.4%	1.49 67.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.30 76.9%	1.33 75.2%	1.30 76.9%	1.30 76.9%	1.33 75.2%	1.25 80.0%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.26 79.4%	1.20 83.3%
home_draw	1.80 55.6%	1.89 52.9%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.83 54.6%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	—	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.04 96.2%
Over 1.5	1.18 84.8%	—	1.10 90.9%
Over 1.75	—	—	1.13 88.5%
Over 2.5	1.55 64.5%	—	—
Over 3.0	—	1.81 55.3%	—
Over 3.25	—	2.06 48.5%	—
Over 3.5	2.35 42.6%	—	—
Over 4.5	4.20 23.8%	—	—
Over 5.5	8.00 12.5%	—	—
Under 1.5	4.75 21.1%	—	—
Under 2.5	2.40 41.7%	—	—
Under 3.0	—	2.11 47.4%	—
Under 3.25	—	1.86 53.8%	—
Under 3.5	1.57 63.7%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.22 82.0%	—	—
Under 5.5	1.07 93.5%	—	—

Match center

Chelsea

Founded 1905

Manchester City

Founded 1880

Match center

Chelsea

EF E. Fernández Coach's decision

RJ R. James Hamstring Injury

Manchester City

RD Rúben Dias Muscle Injury

JS J. Stones Calf Injury

Chelsea Founded: 1905

Manchester City Founded: 1880

Match center

Chelsea

L L W L D

21.03 17:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 0:3 Everton

14.03 17:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 0:1 Nyukasl

04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 4:1 Aston Villa

01.03 16:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 1:2 Arsenal

21.02 15:00 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 1:1 Burnley

1 Wins

1 Draws

3 Losses

1.2 Scored

1.6 Conceded

4 Points

Manchester City

D D W W W

14.03 20:00 UTC Premier League

Manchester City 1:1 West Ham

04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Manchester City 2:2 Nottingem Forest

28.02 17:30 UTC Premier League

Manchester City 1:0 Leeds

21.02 20:00 UTC Premier League

Manchester City 2:1 Nyukasl

11.02 19:30 UTC Premier League

Manchester City 3:0 Fulham

3 Wins

2 Draws

0 Losses

1.8 Scored

0.8 Conceded

11 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyChelsea - Manchester City

Chelsea

1 matches total

Manchester City

Chelsea: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (100%)

Manchester City: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 04.01 17:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (04.01 17:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

04.01 17:30 UTC

Premier League

Chelsea

1:1

Manchester City

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.