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Premier League England

33 round 18.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction

18.04.2026 19:00 UTC 33 round

Finished

Premier League

Chelsea - Manchester United

England Football

Stadium Stamford Bridge

Capacity 41 841

Chelsea

0 : 1

Finished

Manchester United

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Chelsea — 43%

1 · Chelsea43.0%

X · draw26.0%

2 · Manchester United31.0%

Model estimate: win Chelsea 43.0%, draw 26.0%, win Manchester United 31.0%. Model favourite — Chelsea.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Chelsea - Manchester United April 18, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Chelsea.

Strongest: Chelsea - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.14 / X 3.63 / 2 3.25
1X2 market: Chelsea 44.5% / X 26.2% / Manchester United 29.3%
Glicko: Chelsea 43.0% / X 26.0% / Manchester United 31.0%
Total 2.5: over probability 41.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%

1 44.5%

X 26.2%

2 29.3%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.5%

Over 2.5 61.4%

Under 2.5 38.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 43.7%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Stadium Stemford Bridzh (London, England), 39 733 zritelya (95% pri vmestimosti 41 841)

Referee Maykl Oliver (Ashington)

Start 18.04.2026 19:00 UTC

Capacity 41,841

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Chelsea 43%

💹 Market Chelsea 4445%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Chelsea - Manchester United

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Chelsi - Manchester Yunayted, 18 aprelya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. APL 2025-2026 — Championship England po futbolu, 33 round. Chelsi - Manchester Yunayted, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:1

Events 12

Statistics 24

Lineups 37

min Event Player Team

16' 16' Substitution 1 | Estêvão | assist/sub out: A. Garnacho Chelsea

25' 25' Yellow Card | M. Cunha A. Martinez Manchester United

39' 39' Yellow Card | J. Hato Chelsea

43' 43' Normal Goal | M. Cunha | assist/sub out: B. Fernandes A. Martinez Manchester United

80' 80' Substitution 3 | B. Sesko | assist/sub out: A. Diallo Manchester United

81' 81' Substitution 5 | W. Fofana | assist/sub out: T. Chalobah S. Mavididi Chelsea

81' 81' Substitution 6 | M. Gusto | assist/sub out: J. Acheampong Chelsea

81' 81' Substitution 4 | M. Cunha | assist/sub out: M. Mount A. Martinez Manchester United

Metric Chelsea Manchester United SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.57 0.29 final

Zablokirovannye udary 13 2 final

Shots off target 5 1 final

Shots on target 3 1 final

Udary vsego 21 4 final

Fouls soversheno 12 13 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 3 final

Offsides 2 0 final

Chelsea #2 D. Dalot, #3 N. Mazraoui, #8 B. Fernandes, #10 M. Cunha, #18 Casemiro, #19 B. Mbeumo, #23 L. Shaw, #26 A. Heaven, #30 B. Šeško, #31 S. Lammens, #37 K. Mainoo

Manchester United #1 Robert Sánchez, #3 M. Cucurella, #7 P. Neto, #8 E. Fernandez, #9 Liam Delap, #10 C. Palmer, #21 Jorrel Hato, #25 M. Caicedo, #27 M. Gusto, #29 Wesley Fofana, #41 Estêvão

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Diallo Chelsea football.player.assists 0

A. Diallo Chelsea Seyvy 0

A. Diallo Chelsea football.player.minutes_played 10

A. Diallo Chelsea Klyuchevye pasy 3

A. Diallo Chelsea Reyting (staryy) 6.7

A. Diallo Chelsea Perekhvaty 1

A. Diallo Chelsea Otbory vsego 2

A. Heaven Chelsea football.player.assists 0

A. Heaven Chelsea Dribling popytki 4

A. Heaven Chelsea Dribling uspeshno 1

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Chelsea 44.1% 43.0% market and model agree

Draw 26.8% 26.0% draw risk

Manchester United 29.1% 31.0%

xG - 1.44 : 1.18

Total 2.5 Over 41.9% - Under 58.1%

Model check - - Difference 0.02

Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 43.0% / 26.0% / 31.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,556 / 1,580 Chelsea / Manchester United

RD 73 / 72 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.25 market consensus · no value · model 31.0%

X 3.63 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.14 market consensus · no value · model 43.0%

Double chance

X2 1.72 market consensus · no value · model 57.0%

12 1.28 market consensus · no value · model 74.0%

1X 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 69.0%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.73 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.38 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.18 market consensus · line only

2 +1 5.81 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.53 market consensus · no value · model 41.9%

Under 2.5 2.43 market consensus · value +41.3% · model 58.1%

Both teams to score

No 2.58 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.46 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.18 45.9%	2.30 43.5%	2.16 46.3%	2.05 48.8%	2.10 47.6%	2.12 47.2%
X	3.55 28.2%	3.70 27.0%	3.78 26.5%	3.50 28.6%	3.60 27.8%	3.70 27.0%
	3.05 32.8%	3.00 33.3%	3.48 28.7%	3.25 30.8%	3.25 30.8%	3.25 30.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	2.55 39.2%	2.66 37.6%	2.50 40.0%	2.50 40.0%	2.50 40.0%	2.57 38.9%	2.63 38.0%	2.60 38.5%	2.65 37.7%
yes	1.48 67.6%	1.48 67.6%	1.48 67.6%	1.44 69.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.47 68.0%	1.50 66.7%	1.44 69.4%	1.48 67.6%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.65 60.6%	1.78 56.2%	1.73 57.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.67 59.9%
home_away	1.25 80.0%	1.31 76.3%	1.30 76.9%	1.28 78.1%	1.27 78.7%	1.22 82.0%
home_draw	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.30 76.9%	1.33 75.2%	1.37 73.0%	1.30 76.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.04 96.2%	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.05 95.2%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.10 90.9%
Over 1.5	1.18 84.8%	—	1.10 90.9%
Over 2.5	1.57 63.7%	—	—
Over 3.0	—	1.94 51.6%	—
Over 3.5	2.35 42.6%	—	—
Over 4.5	4.20 23.8%	—	—
Over 5.5	7.50 13.3%	—	—
Under 0.5	10.00 10.0%	—	—
Under 1.5	4.75 21.1%	—	—
Under 2.5	2.38 42.0%	—	—
Under 3.0	—	1.96 51.0%	—
Under 3.5	1.57 63.7%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.22 82.0%	—	—
Under 5.5	1.08 92.6%	—	—

Match center

Chelsea

Founded 1905

Manchester United

Founded 1878

Match center

Chelsea

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Manchester United

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Livay Koluill Dzheymi Gittens Filip Yorgensen Ris Dzheyms Zhoao Pedro Travmirovannye Patrik Dorgu Matteys Leni Yoro Diskvalifitsirovannye Lisandro Martines Garri Maguayr CHAMP

Chelsea Founded: 1905

Manchester United Founded: 1878

Match center

Chelsea

L L L W L

12.04 15:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 0:3 Manchester City

21.03 17:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 0:3 Everton

14.03 17:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 0:1 Nyukasl

04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 4:1 Aston Villa

01.03 16:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 1:2 Arsenal

1 Wins

0 Draws

4 Losses

1.0 Scored

2.0 Conceded

3 Points

Manchester United

L D W L W

13.04 19:00 UTC Premier League

Manchester United 1:2 Leeds

20.03 20:00 UTC Premier League

Manchester United 2:2 Bournemouth

15.03 14:00 UTC Premier League

Manchester United 3:1 Aston Villa

04.03 20:15 UTC Premier League

Manchester United 1:2 Nyukasl

01.03 14:00 UTC Premier League

Manchester United 2:1 Kristal Pelas

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.8 Scored

1.6 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyChelsea - Manchester United

Chelsea

2 matches total

Manchester United

Chelsea: 1 (50%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Manchester United: 1 (50%)

Biggest win Manchester United 1:2 (20.09 16:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 20.09 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 2

Match history

20.09 16:30 UTC

Premier League

Chelsea

1:2

Manchester United

16.05 19:15 UTC

Premier League

Chelsea

1:0

Manchester United

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Chelsea

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Manchester United

32 Games 32

13 Wins 15

9 Draws 10

10 Losses 7

53 Scored 57

41 Conceded 45

48 Points 55

101.81 Attacks 100.42

55.66 Dangerous attacks 48.77

0 Big chances 0

13.72 Shots on goal 16.03

4.56 Shots on target 5.81

daleniya 0.09 Goly Mateus Kunya Brunu Fernandesh 0:1 43' Nakazaniya Mateus Kunya 25' Yorrel Khato 39' Meyson Maunt 90+1' Kobbi Maynu 90+4'

Chelsi Manchester Yunayted 32 Games 32 13 Wins 15 9 Draws 10 Losses 7 53 Scored 57 41 Conceded 45 48 Points 55 101.81 Attacks 100.42 55.66 Dangerous attacks 48.77 0 Big chances 0 13.72 Shots on goal 16.03 4.56 Udary v stvor 5.81 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 6.16 Uglovye 4.78 1.47 Offsaydy 1.5 11 Foly 10.28 58.47 % vladeniya myachom 53.16 2.44 Warnings 1.59 0.22 Sendoffs 0.09 Goly Mateus Kunya Brunu Fernandesh 0:1 43' Nakazaniya Mateus Kunya 25' Yorrel Khato 39' Meyson Maunt 90+1' Kobbi Maynu 90+4'