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Premier League England

14.03.2026 17:30 UTC Match prediction

14.03.2026 17:30 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Chelsea - Newcastle

England Football

Chelsea

0 : 1

Finished

Newcastle

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Chelsea - Newcastle March 14, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Chelsea.

Line favourite market consensus: Chelsea. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.86 / X 4.03 / 2 3.92
1X2 market: Chelsea 51.6% / X 23.8% / Newcastle 24.5%
Total 2.5: over probability 61.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.1%

1 51.7%

X 23.8%

2 24.5%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.9%

Over 2.5 62.0%

Under 2.5 38.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 14.03.2026 17:30 UTC

Match center

Chelsea - Newcastle

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.93 market consensus · line only

X 4.04 market consensus · line only

1 1.86 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 2.00 market consensus · line only

12 1.25 market consensus · line only

1X 1.27 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.03 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.56 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.75 market consensus · line only

2 +1 7.10 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.51 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.46 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.48 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.52 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.88 53.2%
X	4.08 24.5%
	3.99 25.1%

Match Winner

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SStats Consensus
	1.86 53.8%	1.88 53.2%	1.85 54.1%	1.82 55.0%	1.88 53.2%	1.88 53.2%
X	4.00 25.0%	4.20 23.8%	4.00 25.0%	4.05 24.7%	4.08 24.5%	4.08 24.5%
	3.95 25.3%	4.07 24.6%	3.60 27.8%	4.10 24.4%	3.99 25.1%	3.99 25.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	William Hill
no	2.53 39.5%	2.48 40.3%	2.38 42.0%	2.44 41.0%	2.58 38.8%	2.45 40.8%
yes	1.53 65.4%	1.49 67.1%	1.53 65.4%	1.49 67.1%	1.55 64.5%	1.50 66.7%

Double chance

Outcome	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SStats Consensus	William Hill
draw_away	2.02 49.5%	1.91 52.4%	2.04 49.0%	2.02 49.5%	2.02 49.5%	2.00 50.0%
home_away	1.27 78.7%	1.22 82.0%	1.27 78.7%	1.27 78.7%	1.27 78.7%	1.22 82.0%
home_draw	1.28 78.1%	1.28 78.1%	1.26 79.4%	1.28 78.1%	1.28 78.1%	1.25 80.0%

Match center

Chelsea

W L D D W

04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 4:1 Aston Villa

01.03 16:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 1:2 Arsenal

21.02 15:00 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 1:1 Burnley

10.02 19:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 2:2 Leeds

07.02 15:00 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 3:1 Wolves

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

2.2 Scored

1.4 Conceded

8 Points

Newcastle

W L L W L

04.03 20:15 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 2:1 Manchester United

28.02 15:00 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 2:3 Everton

21.02 20:00 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 1:2 Manchester City

10.02 19:30 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 2:1 Tottenkhem

07.02 17:30 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 2:3 Brentford

2 Wins

0 Draws

3 Losses

1.8 Scored

2.0 Conceded

6 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyChelsea - Newcastle

Chelsea

3 matches total

Newcastle

Chelsea: 1 (33.3%)

Draws:1 (33.3%)

Newcastle: 1 (33.4%)

Biggest win Nyukasl 0:2 (11.05 11:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (2:2, 20.12 12:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (20.12 12:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 5

5 Goals conceded 4

Match history

20.12 12:30 UTC

Premier League

Chelsea

2:2

Nyukasl

11.05 11:00 UTC

Premier League

Chelsea

0:2

Nyukasl

27.10 13:00 UTC

Premier League

Chelsea

2:1

Nyukasl