Premier League England

35-й тур 04.05.2026 14:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction

04.05.2026 14:00 UTC 35-й тур

Finished

Premier League

Chelsea - Nottingham Forest

England Futbol

Stadium Stamford Bridge

Referee A. Taylor

Capacity 41 841

Chelsea

1 : 3

Finished

Nottingham Forest

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Chelsea — 54%

1 · Chelsea54.5%

X · draw24.8%

2 · Nottingham Forest20.8%

Model estimate: win Chelsea 54.5%, draw 24.8%, win Nottingham Forest 20.8%. Model favourite — Chelsea.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Chelsea - Nottingham Forest 4 мая 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Chelsea.

Strongest: Chelsea - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.70 / X 3.95 / 2 4.85
1X2 market: Chelsea 56.2% / X 24.2% / Nottingham Forest 19.7%
Glicko: Chelsea 54.5% / X 24.8% / Nottingham Forest 20.8%
Total 2.5: over probability 38.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%

1 56.2%

X 24.2%

2 19.7%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%

Over 2.5 55.7%

Under 2.5 44.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П1

Main outcome П1

Agreement 5/5

Confidence 56.6%

Total ТМ 2.5

Score 1:0

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

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Match center

Stadium Стэмфорд Бридж (Лондон, Англия), 39 605 зрителей (95% при вместимости 41 841)

Referee Энтони Тейлор (Манчестер, Англия)

Start 04.05.2026 14:00 UTC

Capacity 41,841

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Chelsea 54%

💹 Market Chelsea 5615%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Chelsea - Nottingham Forest

Итоговый протокол и результаты встречи Челси - Ноттингем Форест, 4 мая 2026. Обзор и статистика матча, точный счет. АПЛ 2025-2026 — Чемпионат Англии по футболу, 35-й тур. Челси - Ноттингем Форест, кто победил, онлайн трансляция матча.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:3

Events 19

Statistics 24

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

2' 2' Normal Goal | T. Awoniyi | assist/sub out: Dilane Bakwa Taiwo Awoniyi Nottingham Forest

10' 10' Yellow Card | Morato Morato Nottingham Forest

13' 13' Penalty confirmed | T. Awoniyi Taiwo Awoniyi Nottingham Forest

14' 14' Yellow Card | M. Gusto M. Gusto Chelsea

15' 15' Penalty | Igor Jesus Igor Jesus Nottingham Forest

45+5' 45+5' Substitution 1 | Z. Abbott | assist/sub out: Neco Williams Zach Abbott Nottingham Forest

45+9' 45+9' Substitution 1 | J. Derry | assist/sub out: L. Delap Jesse Derry Chelsea

46' 46' Substitution 2 | T. Adarabioyo | assist/sub out: L. Colwill T. Adarabioyo Chelsea

Metric Chelsea Nottingham Forest SStats

Ожидаемые голы (xG) 2.15 2.05 final

Заблокированные удары 8 1 final

Удары мимо 8 1 final

Удары в створ 5 4 final

Удары всего 21 6 final

Фолы совершено 12 10 final

Желтые карточки 3 1 final

Офсайды 1 2 final

Chelsea #1 Robert Sánchez, #3 M. Cucurella, #20 Joao Pedro, #25 M. Caicedo, #55 Jesse Derry, #4 T. Adarabioyo, #8 E. Fernandez, #45 R. Lavia, #10 C. Palmer, #23 T. Chalobah, #27 M. Gusto

Nottingham Forest #9 Taiwo Awoniyi, #24 James McAtee, #25 Luca Netz, #26 M. Sels, #4 Morato, #16 Nicolás Domínguez, #19 Igor Jesus, #22 Ryan Yates, #23 Jair, #29 D. Bakwa, #44 Zach Abbott

Player Team Metric SStats

Andrey Santos Chelsea football.player.assists 0

Andrey Santos Chelsea Дриблинг попытки 2

Andrey Santos Chelsea Единоборства выиграно 2

Andrey Santos Chelsea Фолы совершено 1

Andrey Santos Chelsea Сейвы 0

Andrey Santos Chelsea football.player.minutes_played 32

Andrey Santos Chelsea Ключевые пасы 44

Andrey Santos Chelsea Рейтинг (старый) 7.2

Andrey Santos Chelsea Блоки 1

Andrey Santos Chelsea Отборы всего 41

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Chelsea 55.8% 54.5% market and model agree

Draw 24.1% 24.8% draw risk

Nottingham Forest 20.1% 20.8%

xG - 1.63 : 0.90

Total 2.5 Over 38.0% - Under 62.0%

Model check - - Difference 0.01

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 54.5% / 24.8% / 20.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,534 / 1,499 Chelsea / Nottingham Forest

RD 71 / 72 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 4.85 market consensus · no value · model 20.8%

X 3.95 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.70 market consensus · no value · model 54.5%

Double chance

X2 2.15 market consensus · no value · model 45.6%

12 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 75.3%

1X 1.18 market consensus · no value · model 79.2%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.18 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.69 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 4.33 market consensus · line only

2 +1 9.10 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.71 market consensus · no value · model 38.0%

Under 2.5 2.15 market consensus · value +33.4% · model 62.0%

Both teams to score

No 2.12 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.67 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
П1	1.66 60.2%	1.75 57.1%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%
Х	3.90 25.6%	4.12 24.3%	3.80 26.3%	3.90 25.6%	4.00 25.0%	3.90 25.6%
П2	4.80 20.8%	4.98 20.1%	4.60 21.7%	4.75 21.1%	5.30 18.9%	5.00 20.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.15 46.5%	2.10 47.6%	2.15 46.5%	2.10 47.6%	2.12 47.2%	2.15 46.5%	2.10 47.6%	2.06 48.5%	2.10 47.6%
yes	1.65 60.6%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.65 60.6%	1.68 59.5%	1.67 59.9%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.15 46.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.15 46.5%	2.05 48.8%	2.22 45.1%	2.10 47.6%
home_away	1.20 83.3%	1.28 78.1%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.20 83.3%
home_draw	1.17 85.5%	1.21 82.6%	1.18 84.8%	1.18 84.8%	1.19 84.0%	1.14 87.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
ТБ 0.5	1.04 96.2%	1.00 100.0%
ТБ 1.0	—	1.00 100.0%
ТБ 1.25	—	1.10 90.9%
ТБ 1.5	1.22 82.0%	1.19 84.0%
ТБ 1.75	—	1.25 80.0%
ТБ 2.0	—	1.30 76.9%
ТБ 2.25	—	1.57 63.7%
ТБ 2.5	1.67 59.9%	1.76 56.8%
ТБ 3.5	2.70 37.0%	—
ТБ 4.5	4.75 21.1%	—
ТМ 0.5	10.00 10.0%	—
ТМ 1.5	4.20 23.8%	—
ТМ 2.5	2.15 46.5%	—
ТМ 3.5	1.45 69.0%	—
ТМ 4.5	1.18 84.8%	—

Match center

Chelsea

Founded 1905

Nottingham Forest

Founded 1865

Match center

Chelsea

RJ R. James Hamstring Injury

MM M. Mudryk Suspended

Nottingham Forest

CH C. Hudson-Odoi Injury

OA O. Aina Injury

Джейми Гиттенс Эстевао Травмированные Джон Виктор Николо Савона Каллум Хадсон-Одои Вилли Боли

Chelsea Founded: 1905

Nottingham Forest Founded: 1865

Match center

Chelsea

L L L L L

21.04 19:00 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 0:3 Brighton

18.04 19:00 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 0:1 Manchester United

12.04 15:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 0:3 Manchester City

21.03 17:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 0:3 Everton

14.03 17:30 UTC Premier League

Chelsea 0:1 Nyukasl

0 Wins

0 Draws

5 Losses

0.0 Scored

2.2 Conceded

0 Points

Nottingham Forest

W W D W D

24.04 19:00 UTC Premier League

Nottingham Forest 5:0 Sunderland

19.04 13:00 UTC Premier League

Nottingham Forest 4:1 Burnley

12.04 13:00 UTC Premier League

Nottingham Forest 1:1 Aston Villa

22.03 14:15 UTC Premier League

Nottingham Forest 3:0 Tottenkhem

15.03 14:00 UTC Premier League

Nottingham Forest 0:0 Fulham

3 Wins

2 Draws

0 Losses

2.6 Scored

0.4 Conceded

11 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyChelsea - Nottingham Forest

Chelsea

3 matches total

Nottingham Forest

Chelsea: 2 (66.7%)

Draws:1 (33.3%)

Nottingham Forest: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Chelsea 3:0 (18.10 11:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (3:0, 18.10 11:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (06.10 13:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

5 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 5

Match history

18.10 11:30 UTC

Premier League

Chelsea

3:0

Nottingem Forest

25.05 15:00 UTC

Premier League

Chelsea

1:0

Nottingem Forest

06.10 13:00 UTC

Premier League

Chelsea

1:1

Nottingem Forest

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Chelsea

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Nottingham Forest

34 Игры 34

13 Победы 10

9 Ничьи 9

12 Поражения 15

53 Забито 41

45 Пропущено 45

48 Очки 39

101.44 Атаки 92.61

55.15 Опасные атаки 52.13

0 Голевые моменты 0

13.74 Удары по воротам 12.5

4.38 Удары в створ 4.03

1 Удаления 0.03 Голы Тайво Авонийи Дилан Баква 0:1 2' Игор Жезус 0:2 15' Тайво Авонийи Морган Гиббс-Уайт 0:3 52' Жоао Педро Марк Кукурелья 1:3 90+3' Незабитые пенальти Коул Палмер 45+10' Наказания Морато 10' Мало Гюсто 14' Мойсес Кайседо 78' Лиам Делап 78' VAR Жоао Педро 73'

Челси Ноттингем Форест 34 Игры 34 13 Победы 10 9 Ничьи 9 12 Поражения 15 53 Забито 41 45 Пропущено 45 48 Очки 39 101.44 Атаки 92.61 55.15 Опасные атаки 52.13 0 Голевые моменты 0 13.74 Удары по воротам 12.5 4.38 Удары в створ 4.03 0 Штанги/перекладины 0 6.15 Угловые 5.38 1.56 Оффсайды 1.59 10.85 Фолы 10.71 58.12 % владения мячом 47.06 2.35 Предупреждения 1.62 0.21 Удаления 0.03 Голы Тайво Авонийи Дилан Баква 0:1 2' Игор Жезус 0:2 15' Тайво Авонийи Морган Гиббс-Уайт 0:3 52' Жоао Педро Марк Кукурелья 1:3 90+3' Незабитые пенальти Коул Палмер 45+10' Наказания Морато 10' Мало Гюсто 14' Мойсес Кайседо 78' Лиам Делап 78' VAR Жоао Педро 73'