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Premier League England

12.04.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction

12.04.2026 13:00 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Crystal Palace - Newcastle

England Football

Stadium Selhurst Park

Capacity 26 309

Crystal Palace

2 : 1

Finished

Newcastle

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Newcastle — 42%

1 · Crystal Palace30.9%

X · draw27.1%

2 · Newcastle42.0%

Model estimate: win Crystal Palace 30.9%, draw 27.1%, win Newcastle 42.0%. Model favourite — Newcastle.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Crystal Palace - Newcastle April 12, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Newcastle.

Strongest: Newcastle - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.94 / X 3.41 / 2 2.40
1X2 market: Crystal Palace 32.3% / X 27.9% / Newcastle 39.7%
Glicko: Crystal Palace 30.9% / X 27.1% / Newcastle 42.0%
Total 2.5: over probability 37.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%

1 32.4%

X 27.9%

2 39.7%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%

Over 2.5 53.4%

Under 2.5 46.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome

Agreement 3/4

Confidence 41.1%

Total Under 2.5

Score 0:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 12.04.2026 13:00 UTC

Stadium Selhurst Park (London)

Capacity 26,309

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Newcastle 42%

💹 Market Newcastle 3973%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Crystal Palace - Newcastle

Crystal Palace: Win 2.80 Crystal Palace: Draw 3.60 Newcastle Win: 2.38 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.73 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Crystal Palace bolshe 1.5: 2.25 Individualnyy total golov Crystal Palace menshe 1.5: 1.57 Individualny…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:1

Events 16

Statistics 24

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

43' 43' Normal Goal | William Osula Newcastle

64' 64' Substitution 1 | Will Hughes | assist/sub out: Adam Wharton Kelebogile Monnayoo Crystal Palace

64' 64' Substitution 2 | Brennan Johnson | assist/sub out: Ismaïla Sarr Crystal Palace

65' 65' Substitution 3 | Jørgen Strand Larsen | assist/sub out: Jean-Philippe Mateta Saúl Coco Crystal Palace

68' 68' Yellow Card | Malick Thiaw Newcastle

71' 71' Substitution 1 | Anthony Gordon | assist/sub out: Harvey Barnes Newcastle

74' 74' Yellow Card | Joelinton R. Jimenez Newcastle

76' 76' Substitution 4 | Yéremy Pino | assist/sub out: Daichi Kamada Crystal Palace

Metric Crystal Palace Newcastle SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.56 1.13 final

Zablokirovannye udary 3 3 final

Shots off target 3 1 final

Shots on target 5 3 final

Udary vsego 11 7 final

Fouls soversheno 17 12 final

Zheltye kartochki 0 3 final

Offsides 1 0 final

Crystal Palace #3 L. Hall, #4 Sven Botman, #7 Joelinton, #8 S. Tonali, #10 A. Gordon, #12 M. Thiaw, #18 William Osula, #21 T. Livramento, #23 Jacob Murphy, #32 A. Ramsdale, #67 L. Miley

Newcastle #1 D. Henderson, #2 D. Munoz, #3 Tyrick Mitchell, #5 M. Lacroix, #8 J. Lerma, #10 Y. Pino, #11 B. Johnson, #19 Will Hughes, #22 J. Larsen, #23 Jaydee Canvot, #26 Chris Richards

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Wharton Newcastle football.player.assists 0

A. Wharton Newcastle Edinoborstva vyigrano 2

A. Wharton Newcastle Seyvy 0

A. Wharton Newcastle football.player.minutes_played 26

A. Wharton Newcastle Klyuchevye pasy 8

A. Wharton Newcastle Reyting (staryy) 6.9

A. Wharton Newcastle Otbory vsego 6

B. Johnson Newcastle football.player.assists 0

B. Johnson Newcastle Dribling popytki 1

B. Johnson Newcastle Dribling uspeshno 1

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Crystal Palace 33.2% 30.9%

Draw 27.4% 27.1% draw risk

Newcastle 39.3% 42.0% market and model agree

xG - 1.11 : 1.34

Total 2.5 Over 37.5% - Under 62.5%

Model check - - Difference 0.03

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 30.9% / 27.1% / 42.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,505 / 1,519 Crystal Palace / Newcastle

RD 73 / 72 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.40 market consensus · no value · model 42.0%

X 3.41 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.94 market consensus · no value · model 30.9%

Double chance

X2 1.39 market consensus · no value · model 69.2%

12 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 72.9%

1X 1.57 market consensus · no value · model 58.0%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.42 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.15 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.36 market consensus · line only

2 +1 3.71 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.79 market consensus · no value · model 37.5%

Under 2.5 2.05 market consensus · value +28.1% · model 62.5%

Both teams to score

No 2.22 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.61 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.78 36.0%	3.00 33.3%	3.13 32.0%	2.88 34.7%	3.00 33.3%	2.95 33.9%
X	3.40 29.4%	3.50 28.6%	3.52 28.4%	3.25 30.8%	3.60 27.8%	3.40 29.4%
	2.42 41.3%	2.38 42.0%	2.43 41.2%	2.40 41.7%	2.25 44.4%	2.40 41.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	2.30 43.5%	2.23 44.8%	2.20 45.5%	2.15 46.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.25 44.4%	2.16 46.3%
yes	1.57 63.7%	1.66 60.2%	1.61 62.1%	1.62 61.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.57 63.7%	1.62 61.7%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.42 70.4%	1.42 70.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.42 70.4%	1.33 75.2%
home_away	1.25 80.0%	1.35 74.1%	1.30 76.9%	1.28 78.1%	1.31 76.3%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.55 64.5%	1.63 61.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.60 62.5%	1.57 63.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.05 95.2%	—	1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.11 90.1%
Over 1.5	1.25 80.0%	—	1.22 82.0%
Over 2.5	1.75 57.1%	1.88 53.2%	—
Over 2.75	—	2.10 47.6%	—
Over 3.5	2.80 35.7%	—	—
Over 4.5	5.25 19.1%	—	—
Under 0.5	9.50 10.5%	—	—
Under 1.5	3.85 26.0%	—	—
Under 2.5	2.05 48.8%	2.04 49.0%	—
Under 2.75	—	1.82 55.0%	—
Under 3.5	1.42 70.4%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.15 87.0%	—	—

Match center

Crystal Palace

Founded 1861

Newcastle

Founded 1892

Match center

Crystal Palace

EN E. Nketiah Thigh Injury

CD C. Doucouré Knee Injury

Newcastle

FS F. Schär Ankle Injury

EK E. Krafth Knee Injury

Crystal Palace Founded: 1861

Newcastle Founded: 1892

Match center

Crystal Palace

D W L W L

15.03 14:00 UTC Premier League

Crystal Palace 0:0 Leeds

05.03 20:00 UTC Premier League

Crystal Palace 3:1 Tottenkhem

01.03 14:00 UTC Premier League

Crystal Palace 1:2 Manchester United

22.02 14:00 UTC Premier League

Crystal Palace 1:0 Wolves

11.02 19:30 UTC Premier League

Crystal Palace 2:3 Burnley

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.4 Scored

1.2 Conceded

7 Points

Newcastle

L W W L L

22.03 12:00 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 1:2 Sunderland

14.03 17:30 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 1:0 Chelsea

04.03 20:15 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 2:1 Manchester United

28.02 15:00 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 2:3 Everton

21.02 20:00 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 1:2 Manchester City

2 Wins

0 Draws

3 Losses

1.4 Scored

1.6 Conceded

6 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyCrystal Palace - Newcastle

Crystal Palace

2 matches total

Newcastle

Crystal Palace: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Newcastle: 2 (100%)

Biggest win Nyukasl 0:5 (16.04 18:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 5 goals (0:5, 16.04 18:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

04.01 15:00 UTC

Premier League

Kristal Pelas

0:2

Nyukasl

16.04 18:30 UTC

Premier League

Kristal Pelas

0:5

Nyukasl

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.