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Premier League
Premier League Russia
05.04.2026 13:30 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 13:30 UTC
Finished

Premier League

Russia

Dinamo Makhachkala - Baltika

Russia Football
Stadium Anzhi-Arena
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
2 : 2
Finished
Baltika
Baltika
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Baltika — 43%

1 · Dinamo Makhachkala28.3%
X · draw29.1%
2 · Baltika42.6%

Model estimate: win Dinamo Makhachkala 28.3%, draw 29.1%, win Baltika 42.6%. Model favourite — Baltika.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Dinamo Makhachkala - Baltika April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Baltika.

Strongest: Baltika - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.74 / X 3.05 / 2 2.23
  • 1X2 market: Dinamo Makhachkala 25.6% / X 31.4% / Baltika 42.9%
  • Glicko: Dinamo Makhachkala 28.3% / X 29.1% / Baltika 42.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 8.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.4%
1 25.6%
X 31.4%
2 43.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 7.0%
Over 2.5 29.2%
Under 2.5 70.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 3/4
Confidence 43.2%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:0

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 13:30 UTC
Stadium Anzhi-Arena (Kaspiysk)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Baltika 43%
💹 Market Baltika 4293%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Dinamo Makhachkala - Baltika

Dinamo Makhachkala: Win 3.40 Dinamo Makhachkala: Draw 2.92 Baltika Win: 2.30 Obschiy total golov bolshe 1.5: 1.65 Obschiy total golov menshe 1.5: 2.15 Individualnyy total golov Dinamo Makhachkala bolshe 0.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Dinamo Makhachkala menshe 0.5: 2.12…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:2
Events 15
Statistics 22
Lineups 38
min Event Player Team
13' 13' Normal Goal | B. Gil | assist/sub out: I. Petrov Baltika
40' 40' Substitution 1 | M. Hosseinnejad | assist/sub out: Miro Dinamo Makhachkala
46' 46' Substitution 2 | T. Yenne | assist/sub out: I. Belikov Baltika
53' 53' Normal Goal | G. Agalarov Dinamo Makhachkala
58' 58' Yellow Card Baltika
60' 60' Substitution 6 | E. Civic | assist/sub out: M. Ryadno Baltika
61' 61' Substitution 4 | J. Tabidze | assist/sub out: I. Akhmedov Dinamo Makhachkala
67' 67' Substitution 7 | N. Titkov | assist/sub out: Derik Lacerda Baltika
Metric Dinamo Makhachkala Baltika SStats
Zablokirovannye udary 3 4 final
Shots off target 6 5 final
Shots on target 4 4 final
Udary vsego 13 13 final
Fouls soversheno 14 21 final
Zheltye kartochki 0 1 final
Offsides 1 1 final
Ball possession, % 44 56 final
Dinamo Makhachkala #2 S. Varatynov, #4 N. Gassama, #10 I. Petrov, #15 T. Yenne, #16 K. Andrade, #22 N. Titkov, #67 M. Borisko, #69 I. Manelov, #73 M. Petrov, #77 E. Ćivić
Baltika #5 Jemal Tabidze, #6 El Mehdi Moubarik, #10 Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad, #13 Soslan Kagermazov, #16 H. Mrezigue, #22 M. Azzi, #24 Andrés Alarcón, #25 G. Agalarov, #27 D. Volk, #47 Nikita Glushkov, #77 Temirkan Sundukov
Player Team Metric SStats
Andrés Alarcón Baltika football.player.assists 0
Andrés Alarcón Baltika Dribling popytki 7
Andrés Alarcón Baltika Edinoborstva vsego 1
Andrés Alarcón Baltika Edinoborstva vyigrano 11
Andrés Alarcón Baltika Fouls soversheno 2
Andrés Alarcón Baltika Seyvy 0
Andrés Alarcón Baltika football.player.minutes_played 90
Andrés Alarcón Baltika Klyuchevye pasy 29
Andrés Alarcón Baltika Pasy vsego 1
Andrés Alarcón Baltika Reyting (staryy) 6.3
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Dinamo Makhachkala 25.6% 28.3%
Draw 31.2% 29.1% draw risk
Baltika 43.2% 42.6% market and model agree
xG - 0.94 : 1.22
Total 2.5 Over 8.4% - Under 91.6%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 28.3% / 29.1% / 42.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,405 / 1,644 Dinamo Makhachkala / Baltika
RD 83 / 85 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.23 market consensus · no value · model 42.6%
X 3.05 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.74 market consensus · no value · model 28.3%
Double chance
X2 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 71.7%
12 1.41 market consensus · no value · model 70.9%
1X 1.71 market consensus · no value · model 57.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.28 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.03 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.20 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.78 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 3.20 market consensus · no value · model 8.4%
Under 2.5 1.32 market consensus · value +20.9% · model 91.6%
Both teams to score
No 1.47 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.56 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Marathonbet Pinnacle
3.60 27.8% 3.84 26.0% 3.78 26.5% 3.73 26.8%
X 2.90 34.5% 3.16 31.7% 3.10 32.3% 3.03 33.0%
2.19 45.7% 2.28 43.9% 2.24 44.6% 2.21 45.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Marathonbet
no 1.47 68.0% 1.47 68.0% 1.46 68.5%
yes 2.63 38.0% 2.52 39.7% 2.52 39.7%

Double chance

Outcome 1xBet Marathonbet
draw_away 1.31 76.3% 1.31 76.3%
home_away 1.41 70.9% 1.41 70.9%
home_draw 1.70 58.8% 1.71 58.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.10 90.9%
Over 0.75 — 1.14 87.7%
Over 1.0 — 1.20 83.3%
Over 1.25 — 1.53 65.4%
Over 1.5 — 1.79 55.9%
Over 1.75 1.98 50.5% 2.03 49.3%
Over 2.0 2.11 47.4% 2.39 41.8%
Over 2.25 — 2.76 36.2%
Over 2.5 — 3.16 31.7%
Over 2.75 — 4.03 24.8%
Over 3.0 — 6.05 16.5%
Over 3.25 — 6.46 15.5%
Over 3.5 — 7.00 14.3%
Over 3.75 — 9.40 10.6%
Under 1.75 1.91 52.4% —
Under 2.0 1.71 58.5% —
Match center
Dinamo Makhachkala
Founded 2019
Baltika
Founded 1954
Match center
Dinamo Makhachkala
AS A. Sandrachuk Knee Injury
JĐ J. Đapo Injury
Baltika
MB Mingiyan Beveev Yellow Cards
AM A. Mendel Shoulder Injury
Dinamo Makhachkala Founded: 2019
Baltika Founded: 1954
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.