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Premier League
Premier League England
21.03.2026 17:30 UTC Match prediction
21.03.2026 17:30 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Everton - Chelsea

England Football
Stadium Hill Dickinson Stadium
Referee Samuel Barrott
Everton
Everton
3 : 0
Finished
Chelsea
Chelsea
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Chelsea — 46%

1 · Everton27.1%
X · draw26.9%
2 · Chelsea46.1%

Model estimate: win Everton 27.1%, draw 26.9%, win Chelsea 46.1%. Model favourite — Chelsea.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Everton - Chelsea March 21, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Chelsea.

Strongest: Chelsea - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.26 / X 3.37 / 2 2.24
  • 1X2 market: Everton 29.2% / X 28.3% / Chelsea 42.5%
  • Glicko: Everton 27.1% / X 26.9% / Chelsea 46.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 38.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 29.2%
X 28.3%
2 42.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.4%
Over 2.5 50.4%
Under 2.5 49.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 44.5%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 21.03.2026 17:30 UTC
Stadium Hill Dickinson Stadium (Liverpool)
Referee Samuel Barrott

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Chelsea 46%
💹 Market Chelsea 4253%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Everton - Chelsea

Everton: Win 3.31 Everton: Draw 3.40 Chelsea Win: 2.32 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.93 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.97 Individualnyy total golov Everton bolshe 1.5: 2.83 Individualnyy total golov Everton menshe 1.5: 1.46 Individualnyy total golov Chelsea bolshe 1…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:0
Events 14
Statistics 24
Lineups 37
min Event Player Team
33' 33' Normal Goal | Beto Everton
46' 46' Substitution 1 | M. Gusto | assist/sub out: A. Garnacho Chelsea
57' 57' Substitution 2 | R. Lavia | assist/sub out: Andrey Santos Chelsea
62' 62' Normal Goal | Beto | assist/sub out: I. Gueye Everton
69' 69' Yellow Card | A. Garnacho Chelsea
70' 70' Substitution 3 | Pedro Neto | assist/sub out: Estêvão A. Gabrielloni Chelsea
76' 76' Normal Goal | I. Ndiaye | assist/sub out: Beto Yun Seong Chung Everton
78' 78' Substitution 4 | M. Caicedo | assist/sub out: T. Adarabioyo Chelsea
Metric Everton Chelsea SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.18 0.93 final
Zablokirovannye udary 1 4 final
Shots off target 0 4 final
Shots on target 9 4 final
Udary vsego 10 12 final
Fouls soversheno 6 7 final
Zheltye kartochki 0 2 final
Offsides 0 0 final
Everton #1 J. Pickford, #5 Michael Keane, #6 James Tarkowski, #7 Dwight McNeil, #9 Beto, #10 I. Ndiaye, #15 J. O'Brien, #16 V. Mykolenko, #22 Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, #27 I. Gueye, #37 J. Garner
Chelsea #1 Robert Sánchez, #3 M. Cucurella, #7 P. Neto, #8 E. Fernandez, #10 C. Palmer, #20 Joao Pedro, #21 Jorrel Hato, #25 M. Caicedo, #27 M. Gusto, #29 Wesley Fofana, #45 R. Lavia
Player Team Metric SStats
Alejandro Garnacho Chelsea football.player.assists 0
Alejandro Garnacho Chelsea Dribling uspeshno 1
Alejandro Garnacho Chelsea Edinoborstva vyigrano 1
Alejandro Garnacho Chelsea Seyvy 0
Alejandro Garnacho Chelsea football.player.minutes_played 45
Alejandro Garnacho Chelsea Klyuchevye pasy 29
Alejandro Garnacho Chelsea Reyting (staryy) 6.2
Alejandro Garnacho Chelsea Otbory vsego 25
Andrey Santos Chelsea football.player.assists 0
Andrey Santos Chelsea Dribling popytki 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Everton 28.8% 27.1%
Draw 28.2% 26.9% draw risk
Chelsea 43.0% 46.1% market and model agree
xG - 1.01 : 1.41
Total 2.5 Over 38.0% - Under 62.0%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 27.1% / 26.9% / 46.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,527 / 1,583 Everton / Chelsea
RD 74 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.23 market consensus · no value · model 46.1%
X 3.39 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.29 market consensus · no value · model 27.1%
Double chance
X2 1.34 market consensus · no value · model 72.9%
12 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 73.1%
1X 1.66 market consensus · no value · model 54.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.35 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.10 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.19 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.44 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.90 market consensus · no value · model 38.0%
Under 2.5 1.93 market consensus · value +19.7% · model 62.0%
Both teams to score
No 2.12 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.69 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.63 27.6%
X 3.62 27.6%
2.07 48.3%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.20 31.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.42 29.2% 3.20 31.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.25 30.8%
X 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.48 28.7% 3.25 30.8% 3.40 29.4% 3.30 30.3%
2.20 45.5% 2.26 44.3% 2.29 43.7% 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.27 44.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.10 47.6% 2.16 46.3% 2.03 49.3% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.71 58.5% 1.72 58.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.72 58.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.37 73.0% 1.30 76.9%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.35 74.1% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.32 75.8% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.65 60.6% 1.70 58.8% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9%
Match center
Everton
Founded 1878
Chelsea
Founded 1905
Match center
Everton
JG J. Grealish Foot Injury
CA C. Alcaraz Injury
Chelsea
RJ R. James Hamstring Injury
TC T. Chalobah Ankle Injury
Everton Founded: 1878
Chelsea Founded: 1905
Match center
Everton
L W W L L
14.03 17:30 UTC Premier League
Everton 0:2 ArsenalArsenal
03.03 19:30 UTC Premier League
Everton 2:0 BurnleyBurnley
28.02 15:00 UTC Premier League
Everton 3:2 NyukaslNyukasl
23.02 20:00 UTC Premier League
Everton 0:1 Manchester UnitedManchester United
10.02 19:30 UTC Premier League
Everton 1:2 BournemouthBournemouth
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.4 Conceded
6 Points
Chelsea
L W L D D
14.03 17:30 UTC Premier League
Chelsea 0:1 NyukaslNyukasl
04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League
Chelsea 4:1 Aston VillaAston Villa
01.03 16:30 UTC Premier League
Chelsea 1:2 ArsenalArsenal
21.02 15:00 UTC Premier League
Chelsea 1:1 BurnleyBurnley
10.02 19:30 UTC Premier League
Chelsea 2:2 LeedsLeeds
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.4 Conceded
5 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyEverton - Chelsea

Everton
2 matches total
Chelsea
Everton: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Chelsea: 2 (100%)
Biggest win Chelsea 0:2 (13.12 15:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (0:2, 13.12 15:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 0

Match history

13.12 15:00 UTC Premier League
Everton
0:2
Chelsea
26.04 11:30 UTC Premier League
Everton
0:1
Chelsea
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.