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Premier League
Premier League England
35 round 04.05.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
04.05.2026 19:00 UTC 35 round
Finished

Premier League

England

Everton - Manchester City

England Football
Stadium Hill Dickinson Stadium
Referee M. Oliver
Everton
Everton
3 : 3
Finished
Manchester City
Manchester City
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Manchester City — 63%

1 · Everton14.8%
market15%
X · draw22.0%
market20%
2 · Manchester City ✓ Pick63.2%
market65%

Model estimate: win Everton 14.8%, draw 22.0%, win Manchester City 63.2%. Model favourite — Manchester City.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Everton - Manchester City May 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Manchester City.

Strongest: Manchester City - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 6.54 / X 4.67 / 2 1.46
  • 1X2 market: Everton 14.6% / X 20.4% / Manchester City 65.1%
  • Glicko: Everton 14.8% / X 22.0% / Manchester City 63.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 28.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 14.5%
X 20.4%
2 ✓ Pick 65.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%
Over 2.5 59.6%
Under 2.5 40.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 5/5
Confidence 64.1%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Stadium Khill Dikinson (Liverpul, England), vmestimost: 52888
Referee Maykl Oliver (Ashington)
Start 04.05.2026 19:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Manchester City 63%
💹 Market Manchester City 6506%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Everton - Manchester City

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Everton - Manchester Siti, 4 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. APL 2025-2026 — Championship England po futbolu, 35 round. Everton - Manchester Siti, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:3
Events 18
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
43' 43' Normal Goal | J. Doku | assist/sub out: R. Cherki J. Doku Manchester City
45' 45' Yellow Card | M. Keane Michael Keane Everton
48' 48' Yellow Card | Beto Beto Everton
53' 53' Yellow Card | J. Tarkowski James Tarkowski Everton
64' 64' Substitution 1 | Beto | assist/sub out: T. Barry Beto Everton
68' 68' Normal Goal | T. Barry Thierno Barry Everton
73' 73' Yellow Card | G. Donnarumma G. Donnarumma Manchester City
73' 73' Normal Goal | J. O'Brien J. O'Brien Everton
Metric Everton Manchester City SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.72 1.54 final
Zablokirovannye udary 6 9 final
Shots off target 2 8 final
Shots on target 6 4 final
Udary vsego 14 21 final
Fouls soversheno 15 5 final
Zheltye kartochki 4 1 final
Offsides 4 0 final
Everton #1 J. Pickford, #9 Beto, #10 I. Ndiaye, #16 V. Mykolenko, #37 J. Garner, #5 Michael Keane, #22 Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, #42 Tim Iroegbunam, #6 James Tarkowski, #34 Merlin Röhl, #15 J. O'Brien
Manchester City #9 E. Haaland, #11 J. Doku, #20 B. Silva, #25 G. Donnarumma, #33 N. O'Reilly, #10 R. Cherki, #14 Nico González, #15 M. Guehi, #42 A. Semenyo, #45 A. Khusanov, #27 M. Nunes
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Khusanov Manchester City football.player.assists 0
A. Khusanov Manchester City Dribling popytki 7
A. Khusanov Manchester City Dribling uspeshno 2
A. Khusanov Manchester City Edinoborstva vyigrano 8
A. Khusanov Manchester City Fouls soversheno 1
A. Khusanov Manchester City Fouls na igroke 2
A. Khusanov Manchester City Seyvy 0
A. Khusanov Manchester City football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Khusanov Manchester City Klyuchevye pasy 61
A. Khusanov Manchester City Reyting (staryy) 6.7
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Everton 14.3% 14.8%
Draw 20.1% 22.0% draw risk
Manchester City 65.7% 63.2% market and model agree
xG - 0.76 : 1.84
Total 2.5 Over 28.3% - Under 71.7%
Model check - - Difference 0.02
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 14.8% / 22.0% / 63.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,523 / 1,675 Everton / Manchester City
RD 71 / 74 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.46 market consensus · no value · model 63.2%
X 4.67 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 6.54 market consensus · no value · model 14.8%
Double chance
X2 1.11 market consensus · no value · model 85.2%
12 1.18 market consensus · no value · model 78.0%
1X 2.70 market consensus · no value · model 36.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.11 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.01 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.45 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.74 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.60 market consensus · no value · model 28.3%
Under 2.5 2.36 market consensus · weak value +69.3% · model 71.7%
Both teams to score
No 2.04 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.73 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
6.40 15.6% 6.65 15.0% 6.00 16.7% 6.50 15.4% 7.10 14.1% 7.00 14.3%
X 4.55 22.0% 4.88 20.5% 4.50 22.2% 4.75 21.1% 4.60 21.7% 4.60 21.7%
1.44 69.4% 1.52 65.8% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.44 69.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.00 50.0% 2.04 49.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.07 48.3% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.02 49.5% 2.04 49.0%
yes 1.77 56.5% 1.71 58.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.71 58.5% 1.71 58.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.10 90.9% 1.14 87.7% 1.13 88.5% 1.11 90.1% 1.13 88.5% 1.08 92.6%
home_away 1.15 87.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.18 84.8% 1.18 84.8% 1.20 83.3% 1.14 87.7%
home_draw 2.70 37.0% 2.74 36.5% 2.70 37.0% 2.62 38.2% 2.72 36.8% 2.70 37.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% 1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.09 91.7%
Over 1.5 1.20 83.3% 1.16 86.2%
Over 1.75 — 1.20 83.3%
Over 2.0 — 1.25 80.0%
Over 2.25 — 1.48 67.6%
Over 2.5 1.62 61.7% —
Over 3.5 2.55 39.2% —
Over 4.5 4.50 22.2% —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% —
Under 1.5 4.33 23.1% —
Under 2.5 2.25 44.4% —
Under 3.5 1.50 66.7% —
Under 4.5 1.20 83.3% —
Match center
Everton
Founded 1878
Manchester City
Founded 1880
Match center
Everton
JB J. Branthwaite Injury
JG J. Grealish Foot Injury
Manchester City
R Rodri Groin Injury
RD Rúben Dias Muscle Injury
Dzhek Grilish Dzherred Brentueyt Travmirovannye Yoshko Gvardiol Ruben Diash
Everton Founded: 1878
Manchester City Founded: 1880
Match center
Everton
L L D W L
25.04 14:00 UTC Premier League
Everton 1:2 West HamWest Ham
19.04 13:00 UTC Premier League
Everton 1:2 LiverpulLiverpul
11.04 14:00 UTC Premier League
Everton 2:2 BrentfordBrentford
21.03 17:30 UTC Premier League
Everton 3:0 ChelseaChelsea
14.03 17:30 UTC Premier League
Everton 0:2 ArsenalArsenal
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.6 Conceded
4 Points
Manchester City
W W W D D
22.04 19:00 UTC Premier League
Manchester City 1:0 BurnleyBurnley
19.04 15:30 UTC Premier League
Manchester City 2:1 ArsenalArsenal
12.04 15:30 UTC Premier League
Manchester City 3:0 ChelseaChelsea
14.03 20:00 UTC Premier League
Manchester City 1:1 West HamWest Ham
04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League
Manchester City 2:2 Nottingem ForestNottingem Forest
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.8 Scored
0.8 Conceded
11 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyEverton - Manchester City

Everton
2 matches total
Manchester City
Everton: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Manchester City: 2 (100%)
Biggest win Manchester City 0:2 (18.10 14:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (0:2, 18.10 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 4
4 Goals conceded 0

Match history

18.10 14:00 UTC Premier League
Everton
0:2
Manchester City
19.04 14:00 UTC Premier League
Everton
0:2
Manchester City
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Everton
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Manchester City
Everton Team comparison Manchester City
34 Games 33
13 Wins 21
8 Draws 7
13 Losses 5
41 Scored 66
41 Conceded 29
47 Points 70
87.26 Attacks 113.72
44.47 Dangerous attacks 61.41
0 Big chances 0
10.97 Shots on goal 15.42
3.71 Shots on target 5.3
6 0.12 Sendoffs 0 Goly Zheremi Doku Rayan Sherki 0:1 43' Terno Barri 1 68' Dzheyk O'Brayen Dzheyms Garner 2:1 73' Terno Barri 3:1 81' Erling Kholand Mateo Kovachich 3:2 83' Zheremi Doku Mark Gekhi 3 90+7' Nakazaniya Maykl Kin 45' Betu 48' Dzheyms Tarkovski 53' Dzhanluidzhi Donnarumma 74' Dzheyk O'Brayen 86'

Everton Manchester Siti 34 Games 33 13 Wins 21 8 Draws 7 13 Losses 5 41 Scored 66 41 Conceded 29 47 Points 70 87.26 Attacks 113.72 44.47 Dangerous attacks 61.41 0 Big chances 0 10.97 Shots on goal 15.42 3.71 Udary v stvor 5.3 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4.24 Uglovye 6.09 1.38 Offsaydy 1.24 10.24 Foly 9.97 44 % vladeniya myachom 60.39 1.82 Warnings 1.76 0.12 Sendoffs 0 Goly Zheremi Doku Rayan Sherki 0:1 43' Terno Barri 1 68' Dzheyk O'Brayen Dzheyms Garner 2:1 73' Terno Barri 3:1 81' Erling Kholand Mateo Kovachich 3:2 83' Zheremi Doku Mark Gekhi 3 90+7' Nakazaniya Maykl Kin 45' Betu 48' Dzheyms Tarkovski 53' Dzhanluidzhi Donnarumma 74' Dzheyk O'Brayen 86'