Premier League England

25.04.2026 11:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction

25.04.2026 11:30 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Fulham - Aston Villa

England Futbol

Stadium Craven Cottage

Referee M. Oliver

Capacity 25 700

Fulham

1 : 0

Finished

Aston Villa

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Aston Villa — 37%

1 · Fulham35.9%

X · draw26.9%

2 · Aston Villa37.2%

Model estimate: win Fulham 35.9%, draw 26.9%, win Aston Villa 37.2%. Model favourite — Aston Villa.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Fulham - Aston Villa 25 апреля 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Aston Villa.

Strongest: Aston Villa - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.58 / X 3.54 / 2 2.57
1X2 market: Fulham 36.6% / X 26.7% / Aston Villa 36.8%
Glicko: Fulham 35.9% / X 26.9% / Aston Villa 37.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 30.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.9%

1 36.6%

X 26.7%

2 36.7%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%

Over 2.5 54.4%

Under 2.5 45.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П2

Main outcome П2

Agreement 2/4

Confidence 37.2%

Total ТМ 2.5

Score 1:1

Модели не полностью совпадают, поэтому прогноз нужно сверять с рынком и линией.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: 100 RUB

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Match center

Start 25.04.2026 11:30 UTC

Stadium Craven Cottage (London)

Referee M. Oliver

Capacity 25,700

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Aston Villa 37%

💹 Market Aston Villa 3675%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Fulham - Aston Villa

Fulham: Победа 2.60 Fulham: Ничья 3.60 Aston Villa Победа: 2.60 Общий тотал голов больше 2.5: 1.73 Общий тотал голов меньше 2.5: 2.10 Индивидуальный тотал голов Fulham больше 1.5: 2.20 Индивидуальный тотал голов Fulham меньше 1.5: 1.62 Индивидуальный тотал голов Aston Villa боль…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:0

Events 15

Statistics 24

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

43' 43' Normal Goal | Ryan Sessegnon Feliciano Nicolas Saulino Fulham

46' 46' Yellow Card | Timothy Castagne L. Sinayoko Fulham

49' 49' Yellow Card | Pau Torres Aston Villa

66' 66' Substitution 1 | Raul Jimenez | assist/sub out: Rodrigo Muniz J. Krasso Fulham

66' 66' Goal Disallowed - Foul | Timothy Castagne L. Sinayoko Fulham

74' 74' Substitution 1 | Lamare Bogarde | assist/sub out: Douglas Luiz Aston Villa

74' 74' Substitution 2 | Youri Tielemans | assist/sub out: Jadon Sancho J. Casimir Aston Villa

74' 74' Substitution 3 | John McGinn | assist/sub out: Ross Barkley Pavle Miletić Aston Villa

Metric Fulham Aston Villa SStats

Ожидаемые голы (xG) 1.18 0.93 final

Заблокированные удары 5 1 final

Удары мимо 2 8 final

Удары в створ 6 1 final

Удары всего 13 10 final

Фолы совершено 14 12 final

Желтые карточки 2 2 final

Офсайды 7 0 final

Fulham #1 Bernd Leno, #3 Calvin Bassey, #5 Joachim Andersen, #7 R. Jimenez, #8 H. Wilson, #16 S. Berge, #19 Samuel Chukwueze, #20 S. Lukic, #21 T. Castagne, #30 Ryan Sessegnon, #32 Emile Smith Rowe

Aston Villa #2 M. Cash, #4 E. Konsa, #7 J. McGinn, #8 Y. Tielemans, #10 E. Buendía, #11 O. Watkins, #12 L. Digne, #14 Pau Torres, #23 E. Martinez, #26 L. Bogarde, #27 M. Rogers

Player Team Metric SStats

Douglas Luiz Aston Villa football.player.assists 0

Douglas Luiz Aston Villa Дриблинг попытки 2

Douglas Luiz Aston Villa Дриблинг успешно 2

Douglas Luiz Aston Villa Единоборства всего 1

Douglas Luiz Aston Villa Единоборства выиграно 7

Douglas Luiz Aston Villa Фолы совершено 1

Douglas Luiz Aston Villa Фолы на игроке 1

Douglas Luiz Aston Villa Сейвы 0

Douglas Luiz Aston Villa football.player.minutes_played 16

Douglas Luiz Aston Villa Точность пасов % 1

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Fulham 36.8% 35.9%

Draw 26.3% 26.9% draw risk

Aston Villa 36.9% 37.2% market and model agree

xG - 1.24 : 1.27

Total 2.5 Over 30.5% - Under 69.5%

Model check - - Difference 0.01

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 35.9% / 26.9% / 37.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,507 / 1,572 Fulham / Aston Villa

RD 71 / 72 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.57 market consensus · no value · model 37.2%

X 3.54 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.58 market consensus · no value · model 35.9%

Double chance

X2 1.48 market consensus · no value · model 64.1%

12 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 73.1%

1X 1.49 market consensus · no value · model 62.8%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.50 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.20 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.51 market consensus · line only

2 +1 4.12 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.75 market consensus · no value · model 30.5%

Under 2.5 2.09 market consensus · value +45.2% · model 69.5%

Both teams to score

No 2.27 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.59 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
П1	2.54 39.4%	2.68 37.3%	2.50 40.0%	2.60 38.5%	2.62 38.2%	2.63 38.0%
Х	3.50 28.6%	3.74 26.7%	3.40 29.4%	3.60 27.8%	3.55 28.2%	3.60 27.8%
П2	2.54 39.4%	2.67 37.5%	2.50 40.0%	2.60 38.5%	2.57 38.9%	2.55 39.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.30 43.5%	2.24 44.6%	2.30 43.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.27 44.1%	2.38 42.0%	2.25 44.4%	2.21 45.3%	2.25 44.4%
yes	1.57 63.7%	1.59 62.9%	1.62 61.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.57 63.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.59 62.9%	1.58 63.3%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.50 66.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.52 65.8%	1.44 69.4%
home_away	1.25 80.0%	1.32 75.8%	1.30 76.9%	1.28 78.1%	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.50 66.7%	1.54 64.9%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.44 69.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
ТБ 0.5	1.04 96.2%	1.01 99.0%
ТБ 0.75	—	1.00 100.0%
ТБ 1.0	—	1.01 99.0%
ТБ 1.25	—	1.11 90.1%
ТБ 1.5	1.22 82.0%	1.21 82.6%
ТБ 1.75	—	1.26 79.4%
ТБ 2.0	—	1.33 75.2%
ТБ 2.25	—	1.53 65.4%
ТБ 2.5	1.73 57.8%	—
ТБ 3.5	2.80 35.7%	—
ТБ 4.5	5.25 19.1%	—
ТМ 0.5	10.00 10.0%	—
ТМ 1.5	4.00 25.0%	—
ТМ 2.5	2.10 47.6%	—
ТМ 3.5	1.42 70.4%	—
ТМ 4.5	1.15 87.0%	—

Match center

Fulham

Founded 1879

Aston Villa

Founded 1874

Match center

Fulham

D L W D L

18.04 11:30 UTC Premier League

Fulham 0:0 Brentford

11.04 16:30 UTC Premier League

Fulham 0:2 Liverpul

21.03 15:00 UTC Premier League

Fulham 3:1 Burnley

15.03 14:00 UTC Premier League

Fulham 0:0 Nottingem Forest

04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Fulham 0:1 West Ham

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

0.6 Scored

0.8 Conceded

5 Points

Aston Villa

W D W L L

19.04 13:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 4:3 Sunderland

12.04 13:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 1:1 Nottingem Forest

22.03 14:15 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 2:0 West Ham

15.03 14:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 1:3 Manchester United

04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 1:4 Chelsea

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.8 Scored

2.2 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyFulham - Aston Villa

Fulham

3 matches total

Aston Villa

Fulham: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Aston Villa: 3 (100%)

Biggest win Aston Villa 1:3 (28.09 13:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 28.09 13:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 7

7 Goals conceded 2

Match history

28.09 13:00 UTC

Premier League

Fulham

1:3

Aston Villa

03.05 11:30 UTC

Premier League

Fulham

0:1

Aston Villa

19.10 14:00 UTC

Premier League

Fulham

1:3

Aston Villa

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.