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Premier League England

21.03.2026 15:00 UTC Match prediction

21.03.2026 15:00 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Fulham - Burnley

England Football

Stadium Craven Cottage

Referee Chris Kavanagh

Capacity 25 700

Fulham

3 : 1

Finished

Burnley

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Fulham — 60%

1 · Fulham ✓ Pick59.6%

market62%

X · draw22.8%

market22%

2 · Burnley17.6%

market16%

Model estimate: win Fulham 59.6%, draw 22.8%, win Burnley 17.6%. Model favourite — Fulham.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Fulham - Burnley March 21, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Fulham.

Strongest: Fulham - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.53 / X 4.29 / 2 6.08
1X2 market: Fulham 62.2% / X 22.2% / Burnley 15.7%
Glicko: Fulham 59.6% / X 22.8% / Burnley 17.6%
Total 2.5: over probability 34.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%

1 ✓ Pick 62.2%

X 22.2%

2 15.6%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%

Over 2.5 57.5%

Under 2.5 42.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 61.5%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 21.03.2026 15:00 UTC

Stadium Craven Cottage (London)

Referee Chris Kavanagh

Capacity 25,700

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Fulham 60%

💹 Market Fulham 6216%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Fulham - Burnley

Fulham: Win 1.53 Fulham: Draw 4.38 Burnley Win: 6.44 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.67 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.31 Individualnyy total golov Fulham bolshe 1.5: 1.55 Individualnyy total golov Fulham menshe 1.5: 2.55 Individualnyy total golov Burnley bolshe 0.5: …

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:1

Events 18

Statistics 26

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

18' 18' Substitution 1 | H. Mejbri | assist/sub out: L. Ugochukwu Burnley

37' 37' Yellow Card | J. Laurent Gabriele Vulpitta Burnley

55' 55' Yellow Card | A. Robinson Ava Catanzarite Fulham

60' 60' Normal Goal | Z. Flemming | assist/sub out: L. Foster Burnley

61' 61' Substitution 1 | Oscar Bobb | assist/sub out: S. Chukwueze Fulham

61' 61' Substitution 2 | A. Robinson | assist/sub out: R. Sessegnon Ava Catanzarite Fulham

64' 64' Yellow Card | J. Ward-Prowse K. Kouassi Burnley

67' 67' Normal Goal | Joshua King Fulham

Metric Fulham Burnley SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 3.15 1.24 final

Zablokirovannye udary 6 3 final

Shots off target 10 1 final

Shots on target 6 5 final

Udary vsego 22 9 final

Fouls soversheno 6 9 final

Red cards 0 1 final

Zheltye kartochki 2 2 final

Fulham #1 Bernd Leno, #3 Calvin Bassey, #5 Joachim Andersen, #8 H. Wilson, #9 Rodrigo Muniz, #14 O. Bobb, #16 S. Berge, #17 Alex Iwobi, #21 T. Castagne, #24 J. King, #33 Antonee Robinson

Burnley #1 M. Dúbravka, #2 K. Walker, #3 Q. Hartman, #5 M. Estève, #9 L. Foster, #11 J. Anthony, #12 B. Humphreys, #19 Z. Flemming, #20 J. Ward-Prowse, #28 Hannibal Mejbri, #29 J. Laurent

Player Team Metric SStats

Alex Iwobi Fulham football.player.assists 0

Alex Iwobi Fulham Dribling popytki 2

Alex Iwobi Fulham Edinoborstva vsego 1

Alex Iwobi Fulham Edinoborstva vyigrano 5

Alex Iwobi Fulham Fouls soversheno 1

Alex Iwobi Fulham Seyvy 0

Alex Iwobi Fulham football.player.minutes_played 90

Alex Iwobi Fulham Tochnost pasov % 2

Alex Iwobi Fulham Klyuchevye pasy 76

Alex Iwobi Fulham Reyting (staryy) 7.2

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Fulham 62.9% 59.6% market and model agree

Draw 22.0% 22.8% draw risk

Burnley 15.1% 17.6%

xG - 1.80 : 0.86

Total 2.5 Over 34.1% - Under 66.0%

Model check - - Difference 0.03

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 59.6% / 22.8% / 17.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,507 / 1,377 Fulham / Burnley

RD 72 / 77 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 6.08 market consensus · no value · model 17.6%

X 4.27 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.53 market consensus · no value · model 59.6%

Double chance

X2 2.49 market consensus · no value · model 40.4%

12 1.21 market consensus · no value · model 77.2%

1X 1.13 market consensus · no value · model 82.4%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.53 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.99 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 5.38 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.51 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.66 market consensus · no value · model 34.1%

Under 2.5 2.25 market consensus · value +48.4% · model 66.0%

Both teams to score

No 2.07 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.71 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.61 62.1%
X	3.98 25.1%
	6.00 16.7%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.53 65.4%	1.54 64.9%	1.56 64.1%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.57 63.7%
X	4.20 23.8%	4.45 22.5%	4.47 22.4%	4.00 25.0%	4.20 23.8%	4.30 23.3%
	5.60 17.9%	5.90 17.0%	6.55 15.3%	5.50 18.2%	6.25 16.0%	6.50 15.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	2.10 47.6%	2.08 48.1%	2.04 49.0%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.07 48.3%	2.10 47.6%	2.10 47.6%	2.02 49.5%
yes	1.70 58.8%	1.76 56.8%	1.71 58.5%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.67 59.9%	1.71 58.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.45 40.8%	2.59 38.6%	2.40 41.7%	2.50 40.0%	2.52 39.7%	2.40 41.7%
home_away	1.18 84.8%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.20 83.3%	1.22 82.0%	1.17 85.5%
home_draw	1.12 89.3%	1.14 87.7%	1.14 87.7%	1.12 89.3%	1.15 87.0%	1.10 90.9%

Match center

Fulham

Founded 1879

Burnley

Founded 1882

Match center

Fulham

KT K. Tete Foot Injury

K Kevin Injury

Burnley

AT A. Tuanzebe Achilles Tendon Injury

CR C. Roberts Groin Injury

Fulham Founded: 1879

Burnley Founded: 1882

Match center

Fulham

D L W W L

15.03 14:00 UTC Premier League

Fulham 0:0 Nottingem Forest

04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Fulham 0:1 West Ham

01.03 14:00 UTC Premier League

Fulham 2:1 Tottenkhem

22.02 14:00 UTC Premier League

Fulham 3:1 Sunderland

11.02 19:30 UTC Premier League

Fulham 0:3 Manchester City

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.2 Conceded

7 Points

Burnley

D L L D W

14.03 15:00 UTC Premier League

Burnley 0:0 Bournemouth

03.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Burnley 0:2 Everton

28.02 15:00 UTC Premier League

Burnley 3:4 Brentford

21.02 15:00 UTC Premier League

Burnley 1:1 Chelsea

11.02 19:30 UTC Premier League

Burnley 3:2 Kristal Pelas

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

1.4 Scored

1.8 Conceded

5 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyFulham - Burnley

Fulham

1 matches total

Burnley

Fulham: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Burnley: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Fulham 3:2 (13.12 17:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 5 goals (3:2, 13.12 17:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 3

Match history

13.12 17:30 UTC

Premier League

Fulham

3:2

Burnley

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.