Match center
Start
17.05.2026 14:00 UTC
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17.05.2026 14:00 UTC
Finished
Premier League
Leeds - Brighton
1
:
0
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Leeds - Brighton May 17, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Brighton.
Line favourite market consensus: Brighton. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.33 / X 3.52 / 2 2.14
- 1X2 market: Leeds 28.6% / X 27.0% / Brighton 44.5%
- Total 2.5: over probability 52.8%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 5.2%
1
28.6%
X
27.0%
2
44.4%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 4.8%
Over 2.5
52.7%
Under 2.5
47.3%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: Leeds
Main outcome
Leeds
Agreement
1/1
Confidence
46.0%
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
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Match center
Leeds - Brighton
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:0
Events
12
Statistics
22
Lineups
40
min
Event
Player
Team
60'
60' Substitution 4 | B. Aaronson | assist/sub out: L. Nmecha
Brenden Aaronson
Leeds
60'
60' Substitution 2 | A. Tanaka | assist/sub out: S. Longstaff
Ao Tanaka
Leeds
60'
60' Substitution 3 | B. Aaronson | assist/sub out: L. Nmecha
Brenden Aaronson
Leeds
65'
65' Substitution 3 | J. Veltman | assist/sub out: D. Gomez
Joël Veltman
Brighton
65'
65' Substitution 2 | J. Veltman | assist/sub out: D. Gomez
Joël Veltman
Brighton
74'
74' Substitution 7 | A. Stach | assist/sub out: J. Piroe
A. Stach
Leeds
82'
82' Substitution 6 | C. Baleba | assist/sub out: Y. Ayari
Carlos Baleba
Brighton
82'
82' Substitution 7 | J. Hinshelwood | assist/sub out: C. Kostoulas
Jack Hinshelwood
Brighton
Metric
Leeds
Brighton
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
0.39
3.06
final
Zablokirovannye udary
3
5
final
Shots off target
3
6
final
Shots on target
1
8
final
Udary vsego
7
19
final
Fouls soversheno
9
7
final
Zheltye kartochki
1
0
final
Offsides
3
2
final
Leeds
#11 Brenden Aaronson, #23 Sebastiaan Bornauw, #24 James Justin, #26 K. Darlow, #9 D. Calvert-Lewin, #15 J. Bijol, #22 Ao Tanaka, #4 E. Ampadu, #6 J. Rodon, #18 A. Stach, #7 D. James
Brighton
#1 Bart Verbruggen, #11 Y. Minteh, #17 Carlos Baleba, #18 Danny Welbeck, #29 M. De Cuyper, #5 Lewis Dunk, #13 Jack Hinshelwood, #30 Pascal Groß, #6 Jan Paul van Hecke, #24 Ferdi Kadıoğlu, #34 Joël Veltman
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
Bart Verbruggen
Brighton
football.player.assists
0
Bart Verbruggen
Brighton
football.player.minutes_played
90
C. Kostoulas
Brighton
football.player.assists
0
C. Kostoulas
Brighton
football.player.minutes_played
8
Carlos Baleba
Brighton
football.player.assists
0
Carlos Baleba
Brighton
football.player.minutes_played
82
Danny Welbeck
Brighton
football.player.assists
0
Danny Welbeck
Brighton
football.player.minutes_played
65
Diego Gómez
Brighton
football.player.assists
0
Diego Gómez
Brighton
football.player.minutes_played
25
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.14
market consensus · line only
X
3.52
market consensus · line only
1
3.33
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.32
market consensus · line only
12
1.29
market consensus · line only
1X
1.70
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.33
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.11
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
2.10
market consensus · line only
2 +1
3.15
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.81
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
2.02
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.18
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.63
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.20 31.3% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.40 29.4% | |
| X | 3.50 28.6% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.50 28.6% |
| 2.12 47.2% | 2.22 45.1% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.10 47.6% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.20 45.5% | 2.02 49.5% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.15 46.5% | 1.99 50.3% | 2.32 43.1% |
| yes | 1.62 61.7% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.55 64.5% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.33 75.2% | 1.35 74.1% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.25 80.0% |
| home_away | 1.25 80.0% | 1.34 74.6% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.29 77.5% | 1.25 80.0% |
| home_draw | 1.67 59.9% | 1.74 57.5% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.72 58.1% | 1.73 57.8% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.05 95.2% | 1.00 100.0% |
| Over 0.75 | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 1.25 | — | 1.15 87.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.25 80.0% | 1.27 78.7% |
| Over 1.75 | — | 1.35 74.1% |
| Over 2.0 | — | 1.44 69.4% |
| Over 2.25 | — | 1.78 56.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.80 55.6% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 2.95 33.9% | — |
| Over 4.5 | 5.50 18.2% | — |
| Under 0.5 | 9.50 10.5% | — |
| Under 1.5 | 3.80 26.3% | — |
| Under 2.5 | 2.00 50.0% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.38 72.5% | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.14 87.7% | — |
Match center
Leeds
D
W
D
W
W
11.05 19:00 UTC
Premier League
Leeds
1:1
Tottenkhem
Tottenkhem
01.05 19:00 UTC
Premier League
Leeds
3:1
Burnley
Burnley
22.04 19:00 UTC
Premier League
Leeds
2:2
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
18.04 14:00 UTC
Premier League
Leeds
3:0
Wolves
Wolves
13.04 19:00 UTC
Premier League
Leeds
2:1
Manchester United
Manchester United
3
Wins
2
Draws
0
Losses
2.2
Scored
1.0
Conceded
11
Points
Brighton
W
L
W
D
W
09.05 14:00 UTC
Premier League
Brighton
3:0
Wolves
Wolves
02.05 14:00 UTC
Premier League
Brighton
1:3
Nyukasl
Nyukasl
21.04 19:00 UTC
Premier League
Brighton
3:0
Chelsea
Chelsea
18.04 16:30 UTC
Premier League
Brighton
2:2
Tottenkhem
Tottenkhem
11.04 14:00 UTC
Premier League
Brighton
2:0
Burnley
Burnley
3
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
2.2
Scored
1.0
Conceded
10
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyLeeds - Brighton
Leeds
1
matches total
Leeds: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Brighton: 1 (100%)
Biggest win
Brighton 0:3 (01.11 15:00 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
3 goals (0:3, 01.11 15:00 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
01.11 15:00 UTC
Premier League
Premier League
Leeds
0:3
Brighton
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