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Premier League England

01.05.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction

01.05.2026 19:00 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Leeds - Burnley

England Football

Stadium Elland Road

Referee T. Bramall

Capacity 40 204

Leeds

3 : 1

Finished

Burnley

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Leeds — 64%

1 · Leeds ✓ Pick64.1%

market70%

X · draw21.1%

market19%

2 · Burnley14.8%

market11%

Model estimate: win Leeds 64.1%, draw 21.1%, win Burnley 14.8%. Model favourite — Leeds.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Leeds - Burnley May 1, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Leeds.

Strongest: Leeds - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.37 / X 4.98 / 2 8.61
1X2 market: Leeds 69.7% / X 19.2% / Burnley 11.1%
Glicko: Leeds 64.1% / X 21.1% / Burnley 14.8%
Total 2.5: over probability 34.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.7%

1 ✓ Pick 69.7%

X 19.2%

2 11.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%

Over 2.5 57.8%

Under 2.5 42.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 66.2%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 01.05.2026 19:00 UTC

Stadium Elland Road (Leeds)

Referee T. Bramall

Capacity 40,204

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Leeds 64%

💹 Market Leeds 6972%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Leeds - Burnley

Leeds: Win 1.36 Leeds: Draw 4.75 Burnley Win: 9.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.67 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Leeds bolshe 1.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total golov Leeds menshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Burnley bolshe 0.5: 1.73…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:1

Events 22

Statistics 24

Lineups 80

min Event Player Team

8' 8' Normal Goal | A. Stach A. Stach Leeds

27' 27' Yellow Card | P. Struijk Pascal Struijk Leeds

35' 35' Yellow Card | B. Humphreys B. Humphreys Burnley

37' 37' Yellow Card | L. Tchaouna L. Tchaouna Burnley

40' 40' Yellow Card | J. Rodon J. Rodon Leeds

48' 48' Yellow Card | D. Calvert-Lewin D. Calvert-Lewin Leeds

52' 52' Normal Goal | N. Okafor | assist/sub out: J. Bogle N. Okafor Leeds

54' 54' Substitution 1 | J. Laurent | assist/sub out: H. Mejbri J. Laurent Burnley

Metric Leeds Burnley SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.64 0.57 final

Zablokirovannye udary 5 4 final

Shots off target 5 2 final

Shots on target 8 3 final

Udary vsego 18 9 final

Fouls soversheno 12 12 final

Zheltye kartochki 4 3 final

Offsides 0 1 final

Leeds #1 M. Dúbravka, #2 K. Walker, #3 Q. Hartman, #5 M. Estève, #11 J. Anthony, #12 B. Humphreys, #17 L. Tchaouna, #18 Hjalmar Ekdal, #19 Z. Flemming, #20 J. Ward-Prowse, #29 J. Laurent

Burnley #2 Jayden Bogle, #4 E. Ampadu, #5 Pascal Struijk, #6 J. Rodon, #9 D. Calvert-Lewin, #15 J. Bijol, #18 A. Stach, #19 N. Okafor, #22 Ao Tanaka, #24 James Justin, #26 K. Darlow

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Broja Burnley football.player.minutes_played 24

A. Stach Burnley Dribling popytki 6

A. Stach Burnley Dribling uspeshno 1

A. Stach Burnley Edinoborstva vsego 1

A. Stach Burnley Edinoborstva vyigrano 6

A. Stach Burnley Fouls soversheno 2

A. Stach Burnley Fouls na igroke 1

A. Stach Burnley Seyvy 0

A. Stach Burnley Tochnost pasov % 3

A. Stach Burnley Klyuchevye pasy 23

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Leeds 67.8% 64.1% market and model agree

Draw 19.8% 21.1% draw risk

Burnley 12.4% 14.8%

xG - 1.94 : 0.81

Total 2.5 Over 34.1% - Under 66.0%

Model check - - Difference 0.04

Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 64.1% / 21.1% / 14.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,515 / 1,354 Leeds / Burnley

RD 71 / 75 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 8.61 market consensus · no value · model 14.8%

X 4.98 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.37 market consensus · no value · model 64.1%

Double chance

X2 3.11 market consensus · no value · model 35.9%

12 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 78.9%

1X 1.07 market consensus · no value · model 85.2%

Handicap

2 -0.5 3.09 market consensus · line only

2 -1 2.48 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 7.00 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.36 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.65 market consensus · no value · model 34.1%

Under 2.5 2.26 market consensus · value +49.0% · model 66.0%

Both teams to score

No 1.83 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.90 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.34 74.6%	1.40 71.4%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.39 71.9%	1.36 73.5%
X	4.85 20.6%	5.18 19.3%	4.60 21.7%	5.00 20.0%	5.10 19.6%	5.00 20.0%
	8.40 11.9%	9.10 11.0%	8.00 12.5%	8.50 11.8%	9.25 10.8%	9.00 11.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.80 55.6%	1.82 55.0%	1.91 52.4%	1.80 55.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.91 52.4%	1.75 57.1%	1.79 55.9%	1.80 55.6%
yes	1.93 51.8%	1.90 52.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.95 51.3%	1.90 52.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.95 51.3%	1.92 52.1%	1.92 52.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	3.10 32.3%	3.20 31.3%	3.00 33.3%	3.00 33.3%	3.15 31.8%	3.10 32.3%
home_away	1.17 85.5%	1.20 83.3%	1.18 84.8%	1.17 85.5%	1.18 84.8%	1.14 87.7%
home_draw	1.05 95.2%	1.08 92.6%	1.08 92.6%	1.08 92.6%	1.09 91.7%	1.06 94.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.04 96.2%	1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75	—	1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25	—	1.10 90.9%
Over 1.5	1.22 82.0%	1.18 84.8%
Over 1.75	—	1.23 81.3%
Over 2.0	—	1.28 78.1%
Over 2.25	—	1.52 65.8%
Over 2.5	1.65 60.6%	—
Over 3.5	2.60 38.5%	—
Over 4.5	4.75 21.1%	—
Under 0.5	10.00 10.0%	—
Under 1.5	4.20 23.8%	—
Under 2.5	2.20 45.5%	—
Under 3.5	1.48 67.6%	—
Under 4.5	1.18 84.8%	—

Match center

Leeds

Founded 1919

Burnley

Founded 1882

Match center

Leeds

D W W D D

22.04 19:00 UTC Premier League

Leeds 2:2 Bournemouth

18.04 14:00 UTC Premier League

Leeds 3:0 Wolves

13.04 19:00 UTC Premier League

Leeds 2:1 Manchester United

21.03 20:00 UTC Premier League

Leeds 0:0 Brentford

15.03 14:00 UTC Premier League

Leeds 0:0 Kristal Pelas

2 Wins

3 Draws

0 Losses

1.4 Scored

0.6 Conceded

9 Points

Burnley

L L L L D

22.04 19:00 UTC Premier League

Burnley 0:1 Manchester City

19.04 13:00 UTC Premier League

Burnley 1:4 Nottingem Forest

11.04 14:00 UTC Premier League

Burnley 0:2 Brighton

21.03 15:00 UTC Premier League

Burnley 1:3 Fulham

14.03 15:00 UTC Premier League

Burnley 0:0 Bournemouth

0 Wins

1 Draws

4 Losses

0.4 Scored

2.0 Conceded

1 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyLeeds - Burnley

Leeds

1 matches total

Burnley

Leeds: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Burnley: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Burnley 0:2 (18.10 14:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (0:2, 18.10 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 0

Match history

18.10 14:00 UTC

Premier League

Leeds

0:2

Burnley

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.