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Premier League
Premier League England
18.04.2026 14:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
18.04.2026 14:00 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Leeds - Wolves

England Football
Stadium Elland Roud
Leeds
Leeds
3 : 0
Finished
Wolves
Wolves
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Leeds — 57%

1 · Leeds ✓ Pick57.0%
X · draw24.4%
2 · Wolves18.7%

Model estimate: win Leeds 57.0%, draw 24.4%, win Wolves 18.7%. Model favourite — Leeds.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Leeds - Wolves April 18, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Leeds.

Strongest: Leeds - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.59 / X 4.00 / 2 5.86
  • 1X2 market: Leeds 59.9% / X 23.8% / Wolves 16.3%
  • Glicko: Leeds 57.0% / X 24.4% / Wolves 18.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 44.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 ✓ Pick 59.9%
X 23.8%
2 16.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%
Over 2.5 50.8%
Under 2.5 49.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 58.3%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 18.04.2026 14:00 UTC
Stadium Elland Roud (Lids)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Leeds 57%
💹 Market Leeds 5992%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Leeds - Wolves

Leeds: Win 1.57 Leeds: Draw 4.00 Wolves Win: 6.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Leeds bolshe 1.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Leeds menshe 1.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Wolves bolshe 0.5: 1.62 I…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:0
Events 15
Statistics 24
Lineups 37
min Event Player Team
18' 18' Normal Goal | James Justin | assist/sub out: Noah Okafor Georgia Cranford Leeds
20' 20' Normal Goal Leeds
38' 38' Substitution 1 | Angel Gomes | assist/sub out: Mateus Mané Jesurun Rak-Sakyi Wolves
46' 46' Substitution 2 | Jackson Tchatchoua | assist/sub out: Pedro Lima Wolves
67' 67' Substitution 1 | Noah Okafor | assist/sub out: Wilfried Gnonto Leeds
67' 67' Substitution 3 | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | assist/sub out: Rodrigo Gomes Nikola Keremedchiev Wolves
73' 73' Yellow Card | Brenden Aaronson Leeds
75' 75' Substitution 4 | Ladislav Krejčí | assist/sub out: Hee-Chan Hwang Wolves
Metric Leeds Wolves SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.82 0.57 final
Zablokirovannye udary 4 3 final
Shots off target 7 2 final
Shots on target 6 2 final
Udary vsego 17 7 final
Fouls soversheno 9 17 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 1 final
Offsides 0 1 final
Leeds #3 Hugo Bueno, #4 S. Bueno, #7 André, #8 João Gomes, #9 Adam Armstrong, #24 Toti Gomes, #25 D. Bentley, #27 J. Bellegarde, #37 L. Krejci, #38 J. Tchatchoua, #47 A. Gomes
Wolves #2 Jayden Bogle, #3 Gabriel Gudmundsson, #4 E. Ampadu, #5 Pascal Struijk, #9 D. Calvert-Lewin, #11 Brenden Aaronson, #15 J. Bijol, #19 N. Okafor, #22 Ao Tanaka, #24 James Justin, #26 K. Darlow
Player Team Metric SStats
Tom Edozie Seyvy 0
Ao Tanaka Wolves football.player.assists 0
Ao Tanaka Wolves Dribling popytki 3
Ao Tanaka Wolves Dribling uspeshno 1
Ao Tanaka Wolves Edinoborstva vsego 1
Ao Tanaka Wolves Edinoborstva vyigrano 8
Ao Tanaka Wolves Fouls soversheno 2
Ao Tanaka Wolves Seyvy 0
Ao Tanaka Wolves football.player.minutes_played 89
Ao Tanaka Wolves Tochnost pasov % 4
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Leeds 59.3% 57.0% market and model agree
Draw 24.0% 24.4% draw risk
Wolves 16.7% 18.7%
xG - 1.65 : 0.83
Total 2.5 Over 44.7% - Under 55.3%
Model check - - Difference 0.02
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 57.0% / 24.4% / 18.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,503 / 1,389 Leeds / Wolves
RD 73 / 79 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.86 market consensus · no value · model 18.7%
X 4.00 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.59 market consensus · no value · model 57.0%
Double chance
X2 2.34 market consensus · no value · model 43.1%
12 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 75.6%
1X 1.13 market consensus · no value · model 81.3%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.39 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.83 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 5.27 market consensus · line only
2 +1 9.90 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.88 market consensus · no value · model 44.7%
Under 2.5 1.94 market consensus · value +7.2% · model 55.3%
Both teams to score
No 1.87 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.87 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.57 63.7% 1.63 61.4% 1.64 61.0% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.62 61.7%
X 3.75 26.7% 4.10 24.4% 4.22 23.7% 3.80 26.3% 4.00 25.0% 4.05 24.7%
6.00 16.7% 5.50 18.2% 5.99 16.7% 5.50 18.2% 6.00 16.7% 6.20 16.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.85 54.1% 1.90 52.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.85 54.1% 1.87 53.5% 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6%
yes 1.90 52.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.87 53.5% 1.83 54.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.88 53.2% 1.87 53.5% 1.85 54.1% 1.87 53.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.30 43.5% 2.41 41.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.40 41.7% 2.30 43.5%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.20 83.3%
home_draw 1.12 89.3% 1.16 86.2% 1.14 87.7% 1.12 89.3% 1.15 87.0% 1.10 90.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% — 1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.14 87.7%
Over 1.5 1.28 78.1% — 1.25 80.0%
Over 1.75 — — 1.31 76.3%
Over 2.5 1.85 54.1% 1.93 51.8% —
Over 3.5 3.10 32.3% — —
Over 4.5 6.00 16.7% — —
Under 0.5 9.00 11.1% — —
Under 1.5 3.50 28.6% — —
Under 2.5 1.90 52.6% 1.97 50.8% —
Under 3.5 1.35 74.1% — —
Under 4.5 1.12 89.3% — —
Match center
Leeds
Founded 1919
Wolves
Founded 1877
Match center
Leeds
W D D L L
13.04 19:00 UTC Premier League
Leeds 2:1 Manchester UnitedManchester United
21.03 20:00 UTC Premier League
Leeds 0:0 BrentfordBrentford
15.03 14:00 UTC Premier League
Leeds 0:0 Kristal PelasKristal Pelas
03.03 19:30 UTC Premier League
Leeds 0:1 SunderlandSunderland
28.02 17:30 UTC Premier League
Leeds 0:1 Manchester CityManchester City
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
0.4 Scored
0.6 Conceded
5 Points
Wolves
L D W W L
10.04 19:00 UTC Premier League
Wolves 0:4 West HamWest Ham
16.03 20:00 UTC Premier League
Wolves 2:2 BrentfordBrentford
03.03 20:15 UTC Premier League
Wolves 2:1 LiverpulLiverpul
27.02 20:00 UTC Premier League
Wolves 2:0 Aston VillaAston Villa
22.02 14:00 UTC Premier League
Wolves 0:1 Kristal PelasKristal Pelas
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.6 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLeeds - Wolves

Leeds
1 matches total
Wolves
Leeds: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Wolves: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Leeds 3:1 (20.09 14:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (3:1, 20.09 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 3

Match history

20.09 14:00 UTC Premier League
Leeds
3:1
Wolves
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.