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Premier League
Premier League England
11.04.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction
11.04.2026 16:30 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Liverpool - Fulham

England Football
Stadium Anfield
Capacity 55 212
Liverpool
Liverpool
2 : 0
Finished
Fulham
Fulham
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Liverpool — 60%

1 · Liverpool ✓ Pick60.0%
market57%
X · draw22.1%
market22%
2 · Fulham17.9%
market20%

Model estimate: win Liverpool 60.0%, draw 22.1%, win Fulham 17.9%. Model favourite — Liverpool.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Liverpool - Fulham April 11, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Liverpool.

Strongest: Liverpool - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.65 / X 4.23 / 2 4.72
  • 1X2 market: Liverpool 57.4% / X 22.5% / Fulham 20.1%
  • Glicko: Liverpool 60.0% / X 22.1% / Fulham 17.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 42.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 ✓ Pick 57.5%
X 22.4%
2 20.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.8%
Over 2.5 62.8%
Under 2.5 37.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 59.3%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 11.04.2026 16:30 UTC
Stadium Anfield (Liverpool)
Capacity 55,212

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Liverpool 60%
💹 Market Liverpool 5740%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Liverpool - Fulham

Liverpool: Win 1.65 Liverpool: Draw 4.20 Fulham Win: 4.75 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Liverpool bolshe 1.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total golov Liverpool menshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Fulham bo…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:0
Events 12
Statistics 22
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
36' 36' Normal Goal | Rio Ngumoha | assist/sub out: Florian Wirtz Liverpool
40' 40' Normal Goal | Mohamed Salah | assist/sub out: Cody Gakpo F. Lejeune Liverpool
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Oscar Bobb | assist/sub out: Saša Lukić Fulham
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Curtis Jones | assist/sub out: Ryan Gravenberch Liverpool
46' 46' Substitution 2 | Oscar Bobb | assist/sub out: Saša Lukić Fulham
68' 68' Substitution 2 | Florian Wirtz | assist/sub out: Alexis Mac Allister Liverpool
69' 69' Substitution 3 | Rio Ngumoha | assist/sub out: Alexander Isak Liverpool
69' 69' Substitution 4 | Jeremie Frimpong | assist/sub out: Joe Gomez Liverpool
Metric Liverpool Fulham SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.59 1.04 final
Zablokirovannye udary 6 8 final
Shots off target 7 7 final
Shots on target 5 4 final
Udary vsego 18 19 final
Fouls soversheno 10 4 final
Offsides 4 2 final
Ball possession, % 53 47 final
Liverpool #1 Bernd Leno, #3 Calvin Bassey, #5 Joachim Andersen, #8 H. Wilson, #9 Rodrigo Muniz, #14 O. Bobb, #16 S. Berge, #17 Alex Iwobi, #21 T. Castagne, #24 J. King, #33 Antonee Robinson
Fulham #4 Virgil van Dijk, #5 I. Konate, #7 F. Wirtz, #8 Dominik Szoboszlai, #11 M. Salah, #17 Curtis Jones, #18 Cody Gakpo, #25 G. Mamardashvili, #26 A. Robertson, #30 J. Frimpong, #73 R. Ngumoha
Player Team Metric SStats
Alex Iwobi Liverpool football.player.assists 0
Alex Iwobi Liverpool Dribling popytki 3
Alex Iwobi Liverpool Dribling uspeshno 3
Alex Iwobi Liverpool Edinoborstva vsego 2
Alex Iwobi Liverpool Edinoborstva vyigrano 7
Alex Iwobi Liverpool Fouls soversheno 1
Alex Iwobi Liverpool Fouls na igroke 1
Alex Iwobi Liverpool Seyvy 0
Alex Iwobi Liverpool football.player.minutes_played 90
Alex Iwobi Liverpool Tochnost pasov % 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Liverpool 58.4% 60.0% market and model agree
Draw 22.1% 22.1% draw risk
Fulham 19.5% 17.9%
xG - 1.89 : 0.92
Total 2.5 Over 42.9% - Under 57.1%
Model check - - Difference 0.02
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 60.0% / 22.1% / 17.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,556 / 1,513 Liverpool / Fulham
RD 74 / 72 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.72 market consensus · no value · model 17.9%
X 4.23 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.65 market consensus · no value · model 60.0%
Double chance
X2 2.23 market consensus · no value · model 40.0%
12 1.21 market consensus · no value · model 77.9%
1X 1.18 market consensus · no value · model 82.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.25 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.76 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.33 market consensus · line only
2 +1 9.30 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.49 market consensus · no value · model 42.9%
Under 2.5 2.52 market consensus · value +44.0% · model 57.1%
Both teams to score
No 2.39 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.53 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.65 60.6% 1.65 60.6% 1.69 59.2% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.70 58.8%
X 4.10 24.4% 4.35 23.0% 4.42 22.6% 4.00 25.0% 4.20 23.8% 4.40 22.7%
4.50 22.2% 4.80 20.8% 5.04 19.8% 4.60 21.7% 4.75 21.1% 4.75 21.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.40 41.7% 2.41 41.5% 2.40 41.7% 2.40 41.7% 2.25 44.4% 2.40 41.7% 2.50 40.0% 2.40 41.7% 2.36 42.4%
yes 1.53 65.4% 1.58 63.3% 1.52 65.8% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.52 65.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.20 45.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.22 45.1% 2.20 45.5%
home_away 1.18 84.8% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.17 85.5%
home_draw 1.18 84.8% 1.21 82.6% 1.18 84.8% 1.18 84.8% 1.22 82.0% 1.14 87.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.5 1.17 85.5% — 1.10 90.9%
Over 1.75 — — 1.12 89.3%
Over 2.5 1.50 66.7% — —
Over 3.0 — 1.81 55.3% —
Over 3.25 — 2.06 48.5% —
Over 3.5 2.25 44.4% — —
Over 4.5 3.85 26.0% — —
Over 5.5 7.00 14.3% — —
Under 1.5 5.00 20.0% — —
Under 2.5 2.50 40.0% — —
Under 3.0 — 2.09 47.9% —
Under 3.25 — 1.84 54.4% —
Under 3.5 1.62 61.7% — —
Under 4.5 1.25 80.0% — —
Under 5.5 1.09 91.7% — —
Match center
Liverpool
Founded 1892
Fulham
Founded 1879
Match center
Liverpool
AB Alisson Becker Muscle Injury
WE W. Endo Foot Injury
Fulham
KT K. Tete Foot Injury
HR H. Reed Knock
Liverpool Founded: 1892
Fulham Founded: 1879
Match center
Liverpool
L D L W W
21.03 12:30 UTC Premier League
Liverpool 1:2 BrightonBrighton
15.03 16:30 UTC Premier League
Liverpool 1:1 TottenkhemTottenkhem
03.03 20:15 UTC Premier League
Liverpool 1:2 WolvesWolves
28.02 15:00 UTC Premier League
Liverpool 5:2 West HamWest Ham
22.02 14:00 UTC Premier League
Liverpool 1:0 Nottingem ForestNottingem Forest
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.4 Conceded
7 Points
Fulham
W D L W W
21.03 15:00 UTC Premier League
Fulham 3:1 BurnleyBurnley
15.03 14:00 UTC Premier League
Fulham 0:0 Nottingem ForestNottingem Forest
04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League
Fulham 0:1 West HamWest Ham
01.03 14:00 UTC Premier League
Fulham 2:1 TottenkhemTottenkhem
22.02 14:00 UTC Premier League
Fulham 3:1 SunderlandSunderland
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.8 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLiverpool - Fulham

Liverpool
2 matches total
Fulham
Liverpool: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (50%)
Fulham: 1 (50%)
Biggest win Fulham 2:3 (06.04 13:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (2:3, 06.04 13:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (04.01 15:15 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

04.01 15:15 UTC Premier League
Liverpul
2:2
Fulham
06.04 13:00 UTC Premier League
Liverpul
2:3
Fulham
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.