Premier League England

19.04.2026 15:30 UTC Match prediction

19.04.2026 15:30 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Manchester City - Arsenal

England Futbol

Stadium Etihad Stadium

Capacity 55 097

Manchester City

2 : 1

Finished

Arsenal

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Manchester City — 45%

1 · Manchester City45.3%

X · draw25.7%

2 · Arsenal29.0%

Model estimate: win Manchester City 45.3%, draw 25.7%, win Arsenal 29.0%. Model favourite — Manchester City.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Manchester City - Arsenal 19 апреля 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Manchester City.

Strongest: Manchester City - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.86 / X 3.62 / 2 4.28
1X2 market: Manchester City 51.3% / X 26.4% / Arsenal 22.3%
Glicko: Manchester City 45.3% / X 25.7% / Arsenal 29.0%
Total 2.5: over probability 47.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%

1 51.3%

X 26.4%

2 22.3%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.2%

Over 2.5 49.0%

Under 2.5 51.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П1

Main outcome П1

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 49.1%

Total ТМ 2.5

Score 1:0

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

Buy the full AI analysis

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Match center

Start 19.04.2026 15:30 UTC

Stadium Etihad Stadium (Manchester)

Capacity 55,097

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Manchester City 45%

💹 Market Manchester City 5134%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Manchester City - Arsenal

Manchester City: Победа 1.85 Manchester City: Ничья 3.70 Arsenal Победа: 4.20 Общий тотал голов больше 2.5: 2.00 Общий тотал голов меньше 2.5: 1.80 Индивидуальный тотал голов Manchester City больше 1.5: 1.91 Индивидуальный тотал голов Manchester City меньше 1.5: 1.80 Индивидуаль…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:1

Events 16

Statistics 24

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

16' 16' Normal Goal | Rayan Cherki Manchester City

18' 18' Normal Goal | Kai Havertz L. Yoro Arsenal

36' 36' Yellow Card | Cristhian Mosquera Arsenal

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Noni Madueke | assist/sub out: Gabriel Martinelli Arsenal

60' 60' Yellow Card | Marc Guéhi Manchester City

65' 65' Normal Goal | Erling Haaland L. Fabianski Manchester City

74' 74' Substitution 2 | Eberechi Eze | assist/sub out: Leandro Trossard Aaron Eliscu Arsenal

74' 74' Substitution 3 | Cristhian Mosquera | assist/sub out: Ben White Arsenal

Metric Manchester City Arsenal SStats

Ожидаемые голы (xG) 1.36 1.62 final

Заблокированные удары 5 3 final

Удары мимо 5 3 final

Удары в створ 5 3 final

Удары всего 15 9 final

Фолы совершено 5 12 final

Желтые карточки 2 2 final

Офсайды 0 4 final

Manchester City #1 D. Raya, #2 W. Saliba, #3 C. Mosquera, #5 P. Hincapié, #6 Gabriel, #8 M. Odegaard, #10 E. Eze, #20 N. Madueke, #29 K. Havertz, #36 M. Zubimendi, #41 D. Rice

Arsenal #9 E. Haaland, #10 R. Cherki, #11 J. Doku, #15 M. Guehi, #16 Rodri, #20 B. Silva, #25 G. Donnarumma, #27 M. Nunes, #33 N. O'Reilly, #42 A. Semenyo, #45 A. Khusanov

Player Team Metric SStats

B. White Manchester City football.player.assists 0

B. White Manchester City Сейвы 0

B. White Manchester City football.player.minutes_played 16

B. White Manchester City Ключевые пасы 9

B. White Manchester City Рейтинг (старый) 6.7

B. White Manchester City Отборы всего 4

C. Mosquera Manchester City football.player.assists 0

C. Mosquera Manchester City Дриблинг попытки 5

C. Mosquera Manchester City Единоборства выиграно 13

C. Mosquera Manchester City Фолы совершено 1

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Manchester City 52.1% 45.3% market and model agree

Draw 26.1% 25.7% draw risk

Arsenal 21.8% 29.0%

xG - 1.50 : 1.15

Total 2.5 Over 47.8% - Under 52.2%

Model check - - Difference 0.07

Market vs Glicko gap: 0.07

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 45.3% / 25.7% / 29.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,666 / 1,691 Manchester City / Arsenal

RD 75 / 77 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 4.28 market consensus · no value · model 29.0%

X 3.62 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.86 market consensus · no value · model 45.3%

Double chance

X2 1.94 market consensus · value +6.2% · model 54.7%

12 1.28 market consensus · no value · model 74.3%

1X 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 71.0%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.99 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.52 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.92 market consensus · line only

2 +1 7.25 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.96 market consensus · no value · model 47.8%

Under 2.5 1.88 market consensus · no value · model 52.2%

Both teams to score

No 1.95 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.80 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
П1	1.82 55.0%	1.86 53.8%	1.90 52.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.90 52.6%
Х	3.55 28.2%	3.80 26.3%	3.78 26.5%	3.50 28.6%	3.70 27.0%	3.65 27.4%
П2	4.20 23.8%	4.20 23.8%	4.43 22.6%	4.00 25.0%	4.10 24.4%	4.45 22.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	1.95 51.3%	2.14 46.7%	1.87 53.5%	1.91 52.4%	1.95 51.3%	1.93 51.8%	1.91 52.4%	1.93 51.8%	1.95 51.3%
yes	1.80 55.6%	1.71 58.5%	1.85 54.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.82 55.0%	1.83 54.6%	1.78 56.2%	1.85 54.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.90 52.6%	2.00 50.0%	1.91 52.4%	1.91 52.4%	1.95 51.3%	1.91 52.4%
home_away	1.25 80.0%	1.31 76.3%	1.29 77.5%	1.28 78.1%	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.22 82.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.24 80.7%	1.17 85.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
ТБ 0.5	1.05 95.2%	—	1.01 99.0%
ТБ 0.75	—	—	1.02 98.0%
ТБ 1.0	—	—	1.03 97.1%
ТБ 1.25	—	—	1.16 86.2%
ТБ 1.5	1.30 76.9%	—	1.28 78.1%
ТБ 1.75	—	—	1.35 74.1%
ТБ 2.5	1.93 51.8%	1.85 54.1%	—
ТБ 3.5	3.35 29.9%	—	—
ТБ 4.5	6.50 15.4%	—	—
ТМ 0.5	9.00 11.1%	—	—
ТМ 1.5	3.40 29.4%	—	—
ТМ 2.5	1.85 54.1%	2.05 48.8%	—
ТМ 3.5	1.30 76.9%	—	—
ТМ 4.5	1.10 90.9%	—	—

Match center

Manchester City

Founded 1880

Arsenal

Founded 1886

Match center

Manchester City

W D D W W

12.04 15:30 UTC Premier League

Manchester City 3:0 Chelsea

14.03 20:00 UTC Premier League

Manchester City 1:1 West Ham

04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Manchester City 2:2 Nottingem Forest

28.02 17:30 UTC Premier League

Manchester City 1:0 Leeds

21.02 20:00 UTC Premier League

Manchester City 2:1 Nyukasl

3 Wins

2 Draws

0 Losses

1.8 Scored

0.8 Conceded

11 Points

Arsenal

L W W W W

11.04 11:30 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 1:2 Bournemouth

14.03 17:30 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 2:0 Everton

04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 1:0 Brighton

01.03 16:30 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 2:1 Chelsea

22.02 16:30 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 4:1 Tottenkhem

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

2.0 Scored

0.8 Conceded

12 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyManchester City - Arsenal

Manchester City

2 matches total

Arsenal

Manchester City: 0 (0%)

Draws:2 (100%)

Arsenal: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (2:2, 22.09 15:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (22.09 15:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 3

3 Goals conceded 3

Match history

21.09 15:30 UTC

Premier League

Manchester City

1:1

Arsenal

22.09 15:30 UTC

Premier League

Manchester City

2:2

Arsenal

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.