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Premier League
Premier League England
09.11.2025 16:30 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Manchester City - Liverpool

England Football
Manchester City
Manchester City
3 : 0
Finished
Liverpool
Liverpool

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Manchester City - Liverpool November 9, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Manchester City.

Line favourite market consensus: Manchester City. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.92 / X 3.92 / 2 3.69
  • 1X2 market: Manchester City 49.7% / X 24.4% / Liverpool 26.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 64.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.7%
1 49.7%
X 24.4%
2 25.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.7%
Over 2.5 64.8%
Under 2.5 35.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 09.11.2025 16:30 UTC
Match center

Manchester City - Liverpool

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.70 market consensus · line only
X 3.93 market consensus · line only
1 1.92 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.90 market consensus · line only
12 1.25 market consensus · line only
1X 1.30 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.95 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.51 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.63 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.40 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.46 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.69 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.70 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.43 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.92 52.1%
X 4.00 25.0%
3.83 26.1%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.99 50.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.95 51.3%
X 3.90 25.6% 3.95 25.3% 4.10 24.4% 3.80 26.3% 3.90 25.6% 3.95 25.3%
3.60 27.8% 3.75 26.7% 3.70 27.0% 3.50 28.6% 3.70 27.0% 3.85 26.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Superbet
no 2.70 37.0% 2.85 35.1% 2.69 37.2% 2.63 38.0% 2.62 38.2% 2.72 36.8% 2.80 35.7% 2.65 37.7% 2.72 36.8%
yes 1.40 71.4% 1.43 69.9% 1.42 70.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.42 70.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.42 70.4% 1.45 69.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.83 54.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.89 52.9%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.27 78.7%
home_draw 1.28 78.1% 1.32 75.8% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.31 76.3%
Match center
Manchester City
W L W W W
02.11 16:30 UTC Premier League
Manchester City 3:1 BournemouthBournemouth
26.10 14:00 UTC Premier League
Manchester City 0:1 Aston VillaAston Villa
18.10 14:00 UTC Premier League
Manchester City 2:0 EvertonEverton
05.10 15:30 UTC Premier League
Manchester City 1:0 BrentfordBrentford
27.09 14:00 UTC Premier League
Manchester City 5:1 BurnleyBurnley
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.2 Scored
0.6 Conceded
12 Points
Liverpool
W L L L L
01.11 20:00 UTC Premier League
Liverpool 2:0 Aston VillaAston Villa
25.10 19:00 UTC Premier League
Liverpool 2:3 BrentfordBrentford
19.10 15:30 UTC Premier League
Liverpool 1:2 Manchester UnitedManchester United
04.10 16:30 UTC Premier League
Liverpool 1:2 ChelseaChelsea
27.09 14:00 UTC Premier League
Liverpool 1:2 Kristal PelasKristal Pelas
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.8 Conceded
3 Points