Premier League England

15.03.2026 14:00 UTC Match prediction

15.03.2026 14:00 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Manchester United - Aston Villa

England Futbol

Manchester United

3 : 1

Finished

Aston Villa

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Manchester United - Aston Villa 15 марта 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Manchester United.

Line favourite market consensus: Manchester United. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.72 / X 4.00 / 2 4.64
1X2 market: Manchester United 55.6% / X 23.9% / Aston Villa 20.6%
Total 2.5: over probability 56.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.7%

1 55.5%

X 23.9%

2 20.6%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.5%

Over 2.5 56.3%

Under 2.5 43.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 15.03.2026 14:00 UTC

Match center

Manchester United - Aston Villa

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 4.65 market consensus · line only

X 4.00 market consensus · line only

1 1.72 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 2.16 market consensus · line only

12 1.24 market consensus · line only

1X 1.20 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.17 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.67 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 4.25 market consensus · line only

2 +1 9.40 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.70 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.19 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.15 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.66 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
П1	1.74 57.5%
Х	4.00 25.0%
П2	4.77 21.0%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
П1	1.70 58.8%	1.72 58.1%	1.76 56.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.78 56.2%
Х	3.85 26.0%	4.10 24.4%	4.15 24.1%	3.80 26.3%	4.00 25.0%	4.05 24.7%
П2	4.45 22.5%	4.60 21.7%	4.82 20.8%	4.50 22.2%	4.60 21.7%	4.65 21.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	2.10 47.6%	2.16 46.3%	2.12 47.2%	2.15 46.5%	2.10 47.6%	2.12 47.2%	2.20 45.5%	2.09 47.9%	2.21 45.3%
yes	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.66 60.2%	1.62 61.7%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.62 61.7%	1.66 60.2%	1.72 58.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.10 47.6%	2.18 45.9%	2.15 46.5%	2.10 47.6%	2.12 47.2%	2.10 47.6%
home_away	1.20 83.3%	1.27 78.7%	1.22 82.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.20 83.3%
home_draw	1.20 83.3%	1.22 82.0%	1.20 83.3%	1.18 84.8%	1.23 81.3%	1.14 87.7%

Match center

Manchester United

L W W D W

04.03 20:15 UTC Premier League

Manchester United 1:2 Nyukasl

01.03 14:00 UTC Premier League

Manchester United 2:1 Kristal Pelas

23.02 20:00 UTC Premier League

Manchester United 1:0 Everton

10.02 20:15 UTC Premier League

Manchester United 1:1 West Ham

07.02 12:30 UTC Premier League

Manchester United 2:0 Tottenkhem

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.4 Scored

0.8 Conceded

10 Points

Aston Villa

L L D W D

04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 1:4 Chelsea

27.02 20:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 0:2 Wolves

21.02 15:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 1:1 Leeds

11.02 19:30 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 1:0 Brighton

07.02 15:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 1:1 Bournemouth

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

0.8 Scored

1.6 Conceded

5 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyManchester United - Aston Villa

Manchester United

3 matches total

Aston Villa

Manchester United: 1 (33.3%)

Draws:1 (33.3%)

Aston Villa: 1 (33.4%)

Biggest win Manchester United 2:0 (25.05 15:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 21.12 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (06.10 13:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 3

Match history

21.12 16:30 UTC

Premier League

Manchester United

1:2

Aston Villa

25.05 15:00 UTC

Premier League

Manchester United

2:0

Aston Villa

06.10 13:00 UTC

Premier League

Manchester United

0:0

Aston Villa