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Premier League
Premier League England
13.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction
13.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Manchester United - Leeds

England Football
Stadium Old Trafford
Capacity 76 212
Manchester United
Manchester United
1 : 2
Finished
Leeds
Leeds
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Manchester United — 55%

1 · Manchester United ✓ Pick55.2%
X · draw24.0%
2 · Leeds20.8%

Model estimate: win Manchester United 55.2%, draw 24.0%, win Leeds 20.8%. Model favourite — Manchester United.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Manchester United - Leeds April 13, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Manchester United.

Strongest: Manchester United - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.56 / X 4.29 / 2 5.58
  • 1X2 market: Manchester United 60.7% / X 22.2% / Leeds 17.1%
  • Glicko: Manchester United 55.2% / X 24.0% / Leeds 20.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 45.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 ✓ Pick 60.9%
X 22.1%
2 17.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%
Over 2.5 57.7%
Under 2.5 42.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 58.5%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 13.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Old Trafford (Manchester)
Capacity 76,212

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Manchester United 55%
💹 Market Manchester United 6074%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Manchester United - Leeds

Manchester United: Win 1.55 Manchester United: Draw 4.20 Leeds Win: 5.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.67 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Manchester United bolshe 1.5: 1.57 Individualnyy total golov Manchester United menshe 1.5: 2.25 Indiv…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:2
Events 15
Statistics 26
Lineups 39
min Event Player Team
5' 5' Normal Goal | N. Okafor Leeds
18' 18' Yellow Card | M. Cunha A. Martinez Manchester United
29' 29' Normal Goal | N. Okafor Leeds
39' 39' Yellow Card | J. Justin Georgia Cranford Leeds
49' 49' Yellow Card | L. Shaw J. Mateta Manchester United
55' 55' Card upgrade | L. Martinez R. van den Berg Manchester United
56' 56' Red Card | L. Martinez R. van den Berg Manchester United
64' 64' Yellow Card | B. Fernandes A. Rüdiger Manchester United
Metric Manchester United Leeds SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.27 2.57 final
Zablokirovannye udary 6 5 final
Shots off target 5 4 final
Shots on target 9 6 final
Udary vsego 20 15 final
Fouls soversheno 12 15 final
Red cards 1 0 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 2 final
Manchester United #3 N. Mazraoui, #6 L. Martinez, #8 B. Fernandes, #10 M. Cunha, #15 L. Yoro, #16 A. Diallo, #18 Casemiro, #23 L. Shaw, #25 M. Ugarte, #30 B. Šeško, #31 S. Lammens
Leeds #2 Jayden Bogle, #3 Gabriel Gudmundsson, #4 E. Ampadu, #5 Pascal Struijk, #9 D. Calvert-Lewin, #11 Brenden Aaronson, #15 J. Bijol, #19 N. Okafor, #22 Ao Tanaka, #24 James Justin, #26 K. Darlow
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Diallo Manchester United football.player.assists 0
A. Diallo Manchester United Dribling popytki 4
A. Diallo Manchester United Edinoborstva vyigrano 6
A. Diallo Manchester United Fouls soversheno 1
A. Diallo Manchester United Seyvy 0
A. Diallo Manchester United football.player.minutes_played 70
A. Diallo Manchester United Klyuchevye pasy 18
A. Diallo Manchester United Pasy vsego 1
A. Diallo Manchester United Reyting (staryy) 6.3
A. Diallo Manchester United Shots on target 2
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Manchester United 61.3% 55.2% market and model agree
Draw 22.2% 24.0% draw risk
Leeds 16.5% 20.8%
xG - 1.70 : 0.94
Total 2.5 Over 45.8% - Under 54.2%
Model check - - Difference 0.06
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.06

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 55.2% / 24.0% / 20.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,595 / 1,488 Manchester United / Leeds
RD 73 / 73 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.58 market consensus · no value · model 20.8%
X 4.29 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.56 market consensus · no value · model 55.2%
Double chance
X2 2.42 market consensus · no value · model 44.8%
12 1.21 market consensus · no value · model 76.0%
1X 1.15 market consensus · no value · model 79.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.46 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.91 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 5.07 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.54 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.65 market consensus · no value · model 45.8%
Under 2.5 2.25 market consensus · value +22.0% · model 54.2%
Both teams to score
No 2.07 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.71 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.55 64.5% 1.61 62.1% 1.60 62.5% 1.53 65.4% 1.55 64.5% 1.60 62.5%
X 4.10 24.4% 4.40 22.7% 4.54 22.0% 4.00 25.0% 4.20 23.8% 4.35 23.0%
5.50 18.2% 5.10 19.6% 5.84 17.1% 5.00 20.0% 5.50 18.2% 5.90 17.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.10 47.6% 2.04 49.0% 2.03 49.3% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.12 47.2% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.79 55.9% 1.72 58.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.75 57.1% 1.65 60.6% 1.72 58.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.40 41.7% 2.49 40.2% 2.38 42.0% 2.38 42.0% 2.45 40.8% 2.40 41.7%
home_away 1.18 84.8% 1.24 80.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.17 85.5%
home_draw 1.12 89.3% 1.17 85.5% 1.15 87.0% 1.14 87.7% 1.17 85.5% 1.10 90.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.08 92.6%
Over 1.5 1.20 83.3% — 1.16 86.2%
Over 1.75 — — 1.21 82.6%
Over 2.0 — — 1.26 79.4%
Over 2.5 1.65 60.6% — —
Over 2.75 — 1.93 51.8% —
Over 3.5 2.55 39.2% — —
Over 4.5 4.50 22.2% — —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 4.33 23.1% — —
Under 2.5 2.20 45.5% — —
Under 2.75 — 1.97 50.8% —
Under 3.5 1.50 66.7% — —
Under 4.5 1.20 83.3% — —
Match center
Manchester United
Founded 1878
Leeds
Founded 1919
Match center
Manchester United
MD M. de Ligt Back Injury
LM Lisandro Martínez Calf Injury
Leeds
JR J. Rodon Ankle Injury
AS A. Stach Ankle Injury
Manchester United Founded: 1878
Leeds Founded: 1919
Match center
Manchester United
D W L W W
20.03 20:00 UTC Premier League
Manchester United 2:2 BournemouthBournemouth
15.03 14:00 UTC Premier League
Manchester United 3:1 Aston VillaAston Villa
04.03 20:15 UTC Premier League
Manchester United 1:2 NyukaslNyukasl
01.03 14:00 UTC Premier League
Manchester United 2:1 Kristal PelasKristal Pelas
23.02 20:00 UTC Premier League
Manchester United 1:0 EvertonEverton
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.2 Conceded
10 Points
Leeds
D D L L D
21.03 20:00 UTC Premier League
Leeds 0:0 BrentfordBrentford
15.03 14:00 UTC Premier League
Leeds 0:0 Kristal PelasKristal Pelas
03.03 19:30 UTC Premier League
Leeds 0:1 SunderlandSunderland
28.02 17:30 UTC Premier League
Leeds 0:1 Manchester CityManchester City
21.02 15:00 UTC Premier League
Leeds 1:1 Aston VillaAston Villa
0 Wins
3 Draws
2 Losses
0.2 Scored
0.6 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyManchester United - Leeds

Manchester United
1 matches total
Leeds
Manchester United: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Leeds: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 04.01 12:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (04.01 12:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

04.01 12:30 UTC Premier League
Manchester United
1:1
Leeds
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.