Premier League England

35-й тур 03.05.2026 14:30 UTC Match prediction

03.05.2026 14:30 UTC 35-й тур

Finished

Premier League

Manchester United - Liverpool

England Futbol

Stadium Old Trafford

Referee D. England

Capacity 76 212

Manchester United

3 : 2

Finished

Liverpool

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Manchester United — 38%

1 · Manchester United38.4%

X · draw26.1%

2 · Liverpool35.6%

Model estimate: win Manchester United 38.4%, draw 26.1%, win Liverpool 35.6%. Model favourite — Manchester United.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Manchester United - Liverpool 3 мая 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Manchester United.

Strongest: Manchester United - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.29 / X 3.75 / 2 2.86
1X2 market: Manchester United 41.5% / X 25.3% / Liverpool 33.2%
Glicko: Manchester United 38.4% / X 26.1% / Liverpool 35.6%
Total 2.5: over probability 39.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%

1 41.5%

X 25.3%

2 33.2%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.3%

Over 2.5 63.5%

Under 2.5 36.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П1

Main outcome П1

Agreement 3/5

Confidence 41.1%

Total ТМ 2.5

Score 1:1

Модели не полностью совпадают, поэтому прогноз нужно сверять с рынком и линией.

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Match center

Stadium Олд Траффорд (Манчестер, Англия), 74 027 зрителей (97% при вместимости 76 212)

Referee Даррен Ингланд (Англия)

Start 03.05.2026 14:30 UTC

Capacity 76,212

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Manchester United 38%

💹 Market Manchester United 4152%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Manchester United - Liverpool

Итоговый протокол и результаты встречи Манчестер Юнайтед - Ливерпуль, 3 мая 2026. Обзор и статистика матча, точный счет. АПЛ 2025-2026 — Чемпионат Англии по футболу, 35-й тур. Манчестер Юнайтед - Ливерпуль, кто победил, онлайн трансляция матча.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:2

Events 16

Statistics 24

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

6' 6' Normal Goal | M. Cunha M. Cunha Manchester United

14' 14' Normal Goal | B. Šeško B. Šeško Manchester United

46' 46' Substitution 2 | B. Šeško | assist/sub out: A. Diallo B. Šeško Manchester United

47' 47' Normal Goal | D. Szoboszlai Dominik Szoboszlai Liverpool

49' 49' Yellow Card | L. Shaw L. Shaw Manchester United

56' 56' Normal Goal | C. Gakpo | assist/sub out: D. Szoboszlai Cody Gakpo Liverpool

59' 59' Substitution 1 | A. Robertson | assist/sub out: M. Kerkez A. Robertson Liverpool

75' 75' Substitution 2 | J. Frimpong | assist/sub out: R. Ngumoha J. Frimpong Liverpool

Metric Manchester United Liverpool SStats

Ожидаемые голы (xG) 2.34 0.89 final

Заблокированные удары 6 3 final

Удары мимо 6 5 final

Удары в створ 6 5 final

Удары всего 18 13 final

Фолы совершено 12 11 final

Желтые карточки 2 2 final

Офсайды 3 3 final

Manchester United #10 M. Cunha, #23 L. Shaw, #30 B. Šeško, #31 S. Lammens, #37 K. Mainoo, #8 B. Fernandes, #18 Casemiro, #26 A. Heaven, #5 H. Maguire, #19 B. Mbeumo, #2 D. Dalot

Liverpool #7 F. Wirtz, #10 A. Mac Allister, #18 Cody Gakpo, #26 A. Robertson, #28 F. Woodman, #4 Virgil van Dijk, #8 Dominik Szoboszlai, #30 J. Frimpong, #38 Ryan Gravenberch, #5 I. Konate, #17 Curtis Jones

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Mac Allister Liverpool football.player.assists 0

A. Mac Allister Liverpool Дриблинг попытки 4

A. Mac Allister Liverpool Дриблинг успешно 1

A. Mac Allister Liverpool Единоборства выиграно 6

A. Mac Allister Liverpool Фолы совершено 1

A. Mac Allister Liverpool Фолы на игроке 1

A. Mac Allister Liverpool Сейвы 0

A. Mac Allister Liverpool football.player.minutes_played 90

A. Mac Allister Liverpool Точность пасов % 2

A. Mac Allister Liverpool Ключевые пасы 65

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Manchester United 42.0% 38.4% market and model agree

Draw 25.3% 26.1% draw risk

Liverpool 32.7% 35.6%

xG - 1.36 : 1.30

Total 2.5 Over 39.3% - Under 60.7%

Model check - - Difference 0.04

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 38.4% / 26.1% / 35.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,595 / 1,585 Manchester United / Liverpool

RD 71 / 72 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.86 market consensus · no value · model 35.6%

X 3.75 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.29 market consensus · no value · model 38.4%

Double chance

X2 1.62 market consensus · no value · model 61.7%

12 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 74.0%

1X 1.41 market consensus · no value · model 64.4%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.65 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.31 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.79 market consensus · line only

2 +1 4.59 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.48 market consensus · no value · model 39.3%

Under 2.5 2.58 market consensus · weak value +56.6% · model 60.7%

Both teams to score

No 2.71 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.43 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
П1	2.22 45.1%	2.39 41.8%	2.25 44.4%	2.30 43.5%	2.27 44.1%	2.30 43.5%
Х	3.75 26.7%	3.86 25.9%	3.60 27.8%	3.80 26.3%	3.75 26.7%	3.80 26.3%
П2	2.84 35.2%	2.95 33.9%	2.80 35.7%	2.80 35.7%	2.92 34.3%	2.88 34.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.75 36.4%	2.56 39.1%	2.63 38.0%	2.62 38.2%	2.75 36.4%	2.80 35.7%	2.70 37.0%	2.83 35.3%	2.80 35.7%
yes	1.42 70.4%	1.46 68.5%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.42 70.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.43 69.9%	1.38 72.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.62 61.7%	1.64 61.0%	1.60 62.5%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.57 63.7%
home_away	1.20 83.3%	1.30 76.9%	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%	1.27 78.7%	1.22 82.0%
home_draw	1.42 70.4%	1.46 68.5%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.42 70.4%	1.40 71.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
ТБ 0.5	—	1.02 98.0%
ТБ 1.0	—	1.05 95.2%
ТБ 1.5	1.15 87.0%	1.10 90.9%
ТБ 1.75	—	1.13 88.5%
ТБ 2.0	—	1.16 86.2%
ТБ 2.25	—	1.33 75.2%
ТБ 2.5	1.48 67.6%	1.47 68.0%
ТБ 2.75	—	1.60 62.5%
ТБ 3.5	2.15 46.5%	—
ТБ 4.5	3.65 27.4%	—
ТБ 5.5	6.50 15.4%	—
ТМ 1.5	5.25 19.1%	—
ТМ 2.5	2.60 38.5%	—
ТМ 3.5	1.67 59.9%	—
ТМ 4.5	1.28 78.1%	—
ТМ 5.5	1.10 90.9%	—

Match center

Manchester United

Founded 1878

Liverpool

Founded 1892

Match center

Manchester United

MD M. de Ligt Back Injury

LS L. Shaw Injury

Liverpool

AB Alisson Becker Muscle Injury

MS Mohamed Salah Injury

Маттейс Джованни Леони Конор Брэдли Ватару Эндо Уго Экитике Георгий Мамардашвили Стефан Байчетич Мохамед Салах Александер Исак Дисквалифицированные Лисандро Мартинес CHAMP

Manchester United Founded: 1878

Liverpool Founded: 1892

Match center

Manchester United

W W L D W

27.04 19:00 UTC Premier League

Manchester United 2:1 Brentford

18.04 19:00 UTC Premier League

Manchester United 1:0 Chelsea

13.04 19:00 UTC Premier League

Manchester United 1:2 Leeds

20.03 20:00 UTC Premier League

Manchester United 2:2 Bournemouth

15.03 14:00 UTC Premier League

Manchester United 3:1 Aston Villa

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.8 Scored

1.2 Conceded

10 Points

Liverpool

W W W L D

25.04 14:00 UTC Premier League

Liverpool 3:1 Kristal Pelas

19.04 13:00 UTC Premier League

Liverpool 2:1 Everton

11.04 16:30 UTC Premier League

Liverpool 2:0 Fulham

21.03 12:30 UTC Premier League

Liverpool 1:2 Brighton

15.03 16:30 UTC Premier League

Liverpool 1:1 Tottenkhem

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.8 Scored

1.0 Conceded

10 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyManchester United - Liverpool

Manchester United

2 matches total

Liverpool

Manchester United: 1 (50%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Liverpool: 1 (50%)

Biggest win Liverpul 0:3 (01.09 15:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 19.10 15:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 4

4 Goals conceded 2

Match history

19.10 15:30 UTC

Premier League

Manchester United

2:1

Liverpul

01.09 15:00 UTC

Premier League

Manchester United

0:3

Liverpul

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Manchester United

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Liverpool

34 Игры 34

17 Победы 17

10 Ничьи 7

7 Поражения 10

60 Забито 57

46 Пропущено 44

61 Очки 58

99.3 Атаки 109.97

47.88 Опасные атаки 58.21

0 Голевые моменты 0

15.53 Удары по воротам 15.35

5.68 Удары в створ 4.53

ения 1.47 0.09 Удаления 0.03 Голы Матеус Кунья 1:0 6' Беньямин Шешко 2:0 14' Доминик Собослаи 2:1 47' Коди Гакпо Доминик Собослаи 2:2 56' Кобби Майну 3:2 77' Наказания Люк Шоу 49' Кёртис Джонс 75' Бруну Фернандеш 81' Коди Гакпо 85'

Манчестер Юнайтед Ливерпуль 34 Игры 34 17 Победы 17 10 Ничьи 7 7 Поражения 10 60 Забито 57 46 Пропущено 44 61 Очки 58 99.3 Атаки 109.97 47.88 Опасные атаки 58.21 0 Голевые моменты 0 15.53 Удары по воротам 15.35 5.68 Удары в створ 4.53 0 Штанги/перекладины 0 4.74 Угловые 5.94 1.44 Оффсайды 1.97 10.24 Фолы 9.97 52.56 % владения мячом 59.59 1.65 Предупреждения 1.47 0.09 Удаления 0.03 Голы Матеус Кунья 1:0 6' Беньямин Шешко 2:0 14' Доминик Собослаи 2:1 47' Коди Гакпо Доминик Собослаи 2:2 56' Кобби Майну 3:2 77' Наказания Люк Шоу 49' Кёртис Джонс 75' Бруну Фернандеш 81' Коди Гакпо 85'