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Premier League England

28.09.2025 15:30 UTC Match prediction

28.09.2025 15:30 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Newcastle - Arsenal

England Football

Newcastle

1 : 2

Finished

Arsenal

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Newcastle - Arsenal September 28, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Arsenal.

Line favourite market consensus: Arsenal. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.64 / X 3.31 / 2 2.12
1X2 market: Newcastle 26.2% / X 28.8% / Arsenal 45.0%
Total 2.5: over probability 55.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.9%

1 26.2%

X 28.8%

2 45.0%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.2%

Over 2.5 44.2%

Under 2.5 55.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 28.09.2025 15:30 UTC

Match center

Newcastle - Arsenal

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.12 market consensus · line only

X 3.31 market consensus · line only

1 3.65 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.30 market consensus · line only

12 1.33 market consensus · line only

1X 1.74 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.31 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.07 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.09 market consensus · line only

2 +1 3.21 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.17 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.72 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.85 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.90 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	3.76 26.6%
X	3.36 29.8%
	2.15 46.5%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	3.60 27.8%	3.70 27.0%	3.75 26.7%	3.50 28.6%	3.60 27.8%	3.65 27.4%
X	3.25 30.8%	3.35 29.9%	3.46 28.9%	3.25 30.8%	3.30 30.3%	3.25 30.8%
	2.10 47.6%	2.11 47.4%	2.17 46.1%	2.10 47.6%	2.10 47.6%	2.12 47.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	1.85 54.1%	1.89 52.9%	1.85 54.1%	1.85 54.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.92 52.1%
yes	1.85 54.1%	1.92 52.1%	1.87 53.5%	1.91 52.4%	1.95 51.3%	1.88 53.2%	1.91 52.4%	1.87 53.5%	1.94 51.6%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Marathonbet
draw_away	1.28 78.1%	1.32 75.8%	1.29 77.5%	1.28 78.1%	1.31 76.3%	1.31 76.3%
home_away	1.28 78.1%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.31 76.3%	1.35 74.1%
home_draw	1.70 58.8%	1.77 56.5%	1.73 57.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.77 56.5%

Match center

Newcastle

D W D L D

21.09 13:00 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 0:0 Bournemouth

13.09 14:00 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 1:0 Wolves

30.08 16:30 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 0:0 Leeds

25.08 19:00 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 2:3 Liverpul

16.08 11:30 UTC Premier League

Newcastle 0:0 Aston Villa

1 Wins

3 Draws

1 Losses

0.6 Scored

0.6 Conceded

6 Points

Arsenal

D W L W W

21.09 15:30 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 1:1 Manchester City

13.09 11:30 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 3:0 Nottingem Forest

31.08 15:30 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 0:1 Liverpul

23.08 16:30 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 5:0 Leeds

17.08 15:30 UTC Premier League

Arsenal 1:0 Manchester United

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

2.0 Scored

0.4 Conceded

10 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyNewcastle - Arsenal

Newcastle

1 matches total

Arsenal

Newcastle: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Arsenal: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Arsenal 0:1 (18.05 15:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 1 goals (0:1, 18.05 15:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

18.05 15:30 UTC

Premier League

Nyukasl

0:1

Arsenal