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Premier League
Premier League England
18.04.2026 14:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
18.04.2026 14:00 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Newcastle - Bournemouth

England Football
Stadium Sent-Dzheyms Park
Newcastle
Newcastle
1 : 2
Finished
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Newcastle — 45%

1 · Newcastle44.7%
X · draw25.3%
2 · Bournemouth30.1%

Model estimate: win Newcastle 44.7%, draw 25.3%, win Bournemouth 30.1%. Model favourite — Newcastle.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Newcastle - Bournemouth April 18, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Newcastle.

Strongest: Newcastle - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.12 / X 3.71 / 2 3.23
  • 1X2 market: Newcastle 44.9% / X 25.7% / Bournemouth 29.5%
  • Glicko: Newcastle 44.7% / X 25.3% / Bournemouth 30.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 52.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%
1 44.9%
X 25.7%
2 29.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.5%
Over 2.5 61.4%
Under 2.5 38.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 46.3%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 18.04.2026 14:00 UTC
Stadium Sent-Dzheyms Park (Nyukasl)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Newcastle 45%
💹 Market Newcastle 4486%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Newcastle - Bournemouth

Newcastle: Win 2.05 Newcastle: Draw 3.75 Bournemouth Win: 3.30 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Newcastle bolshe 1.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Newcastle menshe 1.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Bour…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:2
Events 19
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
32' 32' Normal Goal | Marcus Tavernier | assist/sub out: Rayan Santiago Giamichelle Bournemouth
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Lewis Hall | assist/sub out: Kieran Trippier Newcastle
52' 52' Yellow Card | Ryan Christie Samuel Chukwueze Bournemouth
55' 55' Yellow Card | Marcus Tavernier Santiago Giamichelle Bournemouth
62' 62' Substitution 2 | Anthony Elanga | assist/sub out: Jacob Murphy Newcastle
62' 62' Substitution 3 | Jacob Ramsey | assist/sub out: Bruno Guimarães Filip Jevtić Newcastle
65' 65' Substitution 1 | Ryan Christie | assist/sub out: Tyler Adams Samuel Chukwueze Bournemouth
66' 66' Substitution 2 | Eli Junior Kroupi | assist/sub out: David Brooks Bournemouth
Metric Newcastle Bournemouth SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.59 2.99 final
Zablokirovannye udary 5 3 final
Shots off target 4 6 final
Shots on target 3 3 final
Udary vsego 12 12 final
Fouls soversheno 11 12 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 4 final
Offsides 1 1 final
Newcastle #3 L. Hall, #4 Sven Botman, #8 S. Tonali, #11 H. Barnes, #12 M. Thiaw, #18 William Osula, #20 Anthony Elanga, #21 T. Livramento, #32 A. Ramsdale, #41 Jacob Ramsey, #67 L. Miley
Bournemouth #1 D. Petrovic, #3 Adrien Truffert, #5 M. Senesi, #8 A. Scott, #9 Evanilson, #10 R. Christie, #16 Marcus Tavernier, #20 A. Jimenez, #22 Eli Junior Kroupi, #23 James Hill, #37 Rayan
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Adli Bournemouth Seyvy 0
A. Jimenez Bournemouth football.player.assists 0
A. Jimenez Bournemouth Dribling popytki 9
A. Jimenez Bournemouth Dribling uspeshno 3
A. Jimenez Bournemouth Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Jimenez Bournemouth Edinoborstva vyigrano 16
A. Jimenez Bournemouth Fouls soversheno 2
A. Jimenez Bournemouth Fouls na igroke 1
A. Jimenez Bournemouth Seyvy 0
A. Jimenez Bournemouth football.player.minutes_played 90
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Newcastle 47.6% 44.7% market and model agree
Draw 24.4% 25.3% draw risk
Bournemouth 27.9% 30.1%
xG - 1.52 : 1.20
Total 2.5 Over 52.9% - Under 47.1%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 44.7% / 25.3% / 30.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,511 / 1,551 Newcastle / Bournemouth
RD 71 / 72 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.23 market consensus · no value · model 30.1%
X 3.71 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.12 market consensus · no value · model 44.7%
Double chance
X2 1.70 market consensus · no value · model 55.3%
12 1.27 market consensus · no value · model 74.7%
1X 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 70.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.75 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.36 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.08 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.26 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.53 market consensus · no value · model 52.9%
Under 2.5 2.43 market consensus · weak value +14.4% · model 47.1%
Both teams to score
No 2.62 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.44 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.97 50.8% 1.91 52.4% 2.22 45.1% 2.05 48.8% 2.15 46.5% 2.18 45.9%
X 3.75 26.7% 4.10 24.4% 3.74 26.7% 3.70 27.0% 3.60 27.8% 3.55 28.2%
3.40 29.4% 3.55 28.2% 3.35 29.9% 3.10 32.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.20 31.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.70 37.0% 2.77 36.1% 2.56 39.1% 2.60 38.5% 2.62 38.2% 2.57 38.9% 2.63 38.0% 2.60 38.5% 2.52 39.7%
yes 1.42 70.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.46 68.5% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.47 68.0% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.46 68.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.80 55.6% 1.74 57.5% 1.73 57.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.72 58.1% 1.62 61.7%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.32 75.8% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.29 77.5% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 1.30 76.9% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.5 1.15 87.0% — 1.13 88.5%
Over 1.75 — — 1.15 87.0%
Over 2.0 — — 1.20 83.3%
Over 2.25 — — 1.36 73.5%
Over 2.5 1.48 67.6% — —
Over 3.25 — 1.98 50.5% —
Over 3.5 2.15 46.5% — —
Over 4.5 3.65 27.4% — —
Over 5.5 6.50 15.4% — —
Under 1.5 5.25 19.1% — —
Under 2.5 2.60 38.5% — —
Under 3.25 — 1.92 52.1% —
Under 3.5 1.67 59.9% — —
Under 4.5 1.28 78.1% — —
Under 5.5 1.10 90.9% — —
Match center
Newcastle
Founded 1892
Bournemouth
Founded 1899
Match center
Newcastle
L L W W L
12.04 13:00 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 1:2 Kristal PelasKristal Pelas
22.03 12:00 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 1:2 SunderlandSunderland
14.03 17:30 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 1:0 ChelseaChelsea
04.03 20:15 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 2:1 Manchester UnitedManchester United
28.02 15:00 UTC Premier League
Newcastle 2:3 EvertonEverton
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.6 Conceded
6 Points
Bournemouth
W D D D D
11.04 11:30 UTC Premier League
Bournemouth 2:1 ArsenalArsenal
20.03 20:00 UTC Premier League
Bournemouth 2:2 Manchester UnitedManchester United
14.03 15:00 UTC Premier League
Bournemouth 0:0 BurnleyBurnley
03.03 19:30 UTC Premier League
Bournemouth 0:0 BrentfordBrentford
28.02 12:30 UTC Premier League
Bournemouth 1:1 SunderlandSunderland
1 Wins
4 Draws
0 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.8 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNewcastle - Bournemouth

Newcastle
1 matches total
Bournemouth
Newcastle: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Bournemouth: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (21.09 13:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

21.09 13:00 UTC Premier League
Nyukasl
0:0
Bournemouth
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.