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Premier League
Premier League England
02.05.2026 14:00 UTC Match prediction
02.05.2026 14:00 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Newcastle - Brighton

England Futbol
Stadium St. James' Park
Referee C. Kavanagh
Capacity 52 389
Newcastle
Newcastle
3 : 1
Finished
Brighton
Brighton
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Brighton — 38%

1 · Newcastle35.3%
X · draw26.3%
2 · Brighton38.4%

Model estimate: win Newcastle 35.3%, draw 26.3%, win Brighton 38.4%. Model favourite — Brighton.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Newcastle - Brighton 2 мая 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Newcastle.

Line favourite market consensus: Newcastle. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.56 / X 3.57 / 2 2.59
  • 1X2 market: Newcastle 36.9% / X 26.5% / Brighton 36.6%
  • Glicko: Newcastle 35.3% / X 26.3% / Brighton 38.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 51.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.7%
1 37.0%
X 26.5%
2 36.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%
Over 2.5 57.0%
Under 2.5 43.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П2

Main outcome П2
Agreement 2/4
Confidence 37.5%
Total ТМ 2.5
Score 1:1

Модели не полностью совпадают, поэтому прогноз нужно сверять с рынком и линией.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: 100 RUB

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Match center
Start 02.05.2026 14:00 UTC
Stadium St. James' Park (Newcastle)
Referee C. Kavanagh
Capacity 52,389

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Brighton 38%
💹 Market Newcastle 3691%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Newcastle - Brighton

Newcastle: Победа 2.55 Newcastle: Ничья 3.75 Brighton Победа: 2.55 Общий тотал голов больше 2.5: 1.67 Общий тотал голов меньше 2.5: 2.20 Индивидуальный тотал голов Newcastle больше 1.5: 2.10 Индивидуальный тотал голов Newcastle меньше 1.5: 1.67 Индивидуальный тотал голов Brighto…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:1
Events 20
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
12' 12' Normal Goal | W. Osula | assist/sub out: J. Murphy William Osula Newcastle
18' 18' Substitution 1 | M. Wieffer | assist/sub out: J. Veltman Mats Wieffer Brighton
22' 22' Yellow Card | J. Veltman Joël Veltman Brighton
24' 24' Normal Goal | D. Burn | assist/sub out: Bruno Guimarães D. Burn Newcastle
39' 39' Yellow Card | K. Mitoma K. Mitoma Brighton
53' 53' Yellow Card | D. Burn D. Burn Newcastle
61' 61' Normal Goal | J. Hinshelwood | assist/sub out: D. Welbeck Jack Hinshelwood Brighton
68' 68' Substitution 1 | J. Willock | assist/sub out: L. Hall Joe Willock Newcastle
Metric Newcastle Brighton SStats
Ожидаемые голы (xG) 3.16 1.53 final
Заблокированные удары 1 3 final
Удары мимо 6 6 final
Удары в створ 6 4 final
Удары всего 13 13 final
Фолы совершено 10 12 final
Желтые карточки 3 3 final
Офсайды 1 1 final
Newcastle #1 Nick Pope, #7 Joelinton, #8 S. Tonali, #18 William Osula, #33 D. Burn, #4 Sven Botman, #28 Joe Willock, #39 Bruno Guimaraes, #12 M. Thiaw, #23 Jacob Murphy, #67 L. Miley
Brighton #1 Bart Verbruggen, #17 Carlos Baleba, #18 Danny Welbeck, #22 K. Mitoma, #24 Ferdi Kadıoğlu, #13 Jack Hinshelwood, #21 Olivier Boscagli, #30 Pascal Groß, #6 Jan Paul van Hecke, #11 Y. Minteh, #27 Mats Wieffer
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Gordon Newcastle Сейвы 0
A. Ramsdale Newcastle Сейвы 0
Anthony Elanga Newcastle Сейвы 0
Bruno Guimaraes Newcastle football.player.assists 1
Bruno Guimaraes Newcastle Дриблинг попытки 7
Bruno Guimaraes Newcastle Дриблинг успешно 1
Bruno Guimaraes Newcastle Единоборства выиграно 10
Bruno Guimaraes Newcastle Фолы совершено 5
Bruno Guimaraes Newcastle Фолы на игроке 1
Bruno Guimaraes Newcastle Сейвы 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Newcastle 37.2% 35.3% market favourite
Draw 26.3% 26.3% draw risk
Brighton 36.5% 38.4% Glicko-противоход
xG - 1.27 : 1.34
Total 2.5 Over 51.2% - Under 48.9%
Model check - - Difference 0.02
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 35.3% / 26.3% / 38.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,501 / 1,566 Newcastle / Brighton
RD 71 / 70 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.59 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 38.4%
X 3.57 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.56 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 35.3%
Double chance
X2 1.50 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 64.7%
12 1.27 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 73.7%
1X 1.48 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 61.6%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.52 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.23 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.52 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.18 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.67 market consensus · no value · model 51.2%
Under 2.5 2.21 market consensus · weak value +8.0% · model 48.9%
Both teams to score
No 2.37 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.54 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
П1 2.52 39.7% 2.65 37.7% 2.50 40.0% 2.55 39.2% 2.57 38.9% 2.60 38.5%
Х 3.55 28.2% 3.72 26.9% 3.40 29.4% 3.75 26.7% 3.55 28.2% 3.60 27.8%
П2 2.55 39.2% 2.70 37.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.55 39.2% 2.62 38.2% 2.63 38.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.40 41.7% 2.37 42.2% 2.30 43.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.37 42.2% 2.50 40.0% 2.40 41.7% 2.34 42.7% 2.43 41.2%
yes 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.50 66.7% 1.54 64.9% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.44 69.4%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.32 75.8% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.48 67.6% 1.52 65.8% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.52 65.8% 1.44 69.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
ТБ 0.5 1.04 96.2% 1.01 99.0%
ТБ 1.0 — 1.01 99.0%
ТБ 1.25 — 1.08 92.6%
ТБ 1.5 1.22 82.0% 1.17 85.5%
ТБ 1.75 — 1.23 81.3%
ТБ 2.0 — 1.28 78.1%
ТБ 2.25 — 1.54 64.9%
ТБ 2.5 1.65 60.6% 1.73 57.8%
ТБ 3.5 2.62 38.2% —
ТБ 4.5 4.75 21.1% —
ТМ 0.5 10.00 10.0% —
ТМ 1.5 4.20 23.8% —
ТМ 2.5 2.20 45.5% —
ТМ 3.5 1.48 67.6% —
ТМ 4.5 1.18 84.8% —
Match center
Newcastle
Founded 1892
Brighton
Founded 1901
Match center
Newcastle
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Newcastle 1:2 SunderlandSunderland
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Newcastle 1:0 ChelseaChelsea
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.4 Conceded
3 Points
Brighton
W D W W W
21.04 19:00 UTC Premier League
Brighton 3:0 ChelseaChelsea
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Brighton 2:2 TottenkhemTottenkhem
11.04 14:00 UTC Premier League
Brighton 2:0 BurnleyBurnley
21.03 12:30 UTC Premier League
Brighton 2:1 LiverpulLiverpul
14.03 15:00 UTC Premier League
Brighton 1:0 SunderlandSunderland
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.6 Conceded
13 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNewcastle - Brighton

Newcastle
3 matches total
Brighton
Newcastle: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (33.3%)
Brighton: 2 (66.7%)
Biggest win Brighton 1:2 (18.10 14:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 18.10 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (04.05 13:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

18.10 14:00 UTC Premier League
Nyukasl
1:2
Brighton
04.05 13:00 UTC Premier League
Nyukasl
1:1
Brighton
19.10 14:00 UTC Premier League
Nyukasl
0:1
Brighton
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.