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Premier League
Premier League Russia
05.04.2026 11:00 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 11:00 UTC
Finished

Premier League

Russia

Nizhny Novgorod - FC Rostov

Russia Football
Stadium Sovcombank Arena
Capacity 44 899
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
0 : 1
Finished
FC Rostov
FC Rostov
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 FC Rostov — 43%

1 · Nizhny Novgorod29.0%
X · draw28.5%
2 · FC Rostov42.6%

Model estimate: win Nizhny Novgorod 29.0%, draw 28.5%, win FC Rostov 42.6%. Model favourite — FC Rostov.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Nizhny Novgorod - FC Rostov April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like FC Rostov.

Strongest: FC Rostov - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.13 / X 3.24 / 2 2.41
  • 1X2 market: Nizhny Novgorod 30.7% / X 29.5% / FC Rostov 39.8%
  • Glicko: Nizhny Novgorod 29.0% / X 28.5% / FC Rostov 42.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 10.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.3%
1 30.6%
X 29.6%
2 39.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.4%
Over 2.5 42.1%
Under 2.5 57.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 3/4
Confidence 41.6%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:0

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 11:00 UTC
Stadium Sovcombank Arena (Nizhny Novgorod)
Capacity 44,899

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model FC Rostov 43%
💹 Market FC Rostov 3980%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Nizhny Novgorod - FC Rostov

Nizhny Novgorod: Win 3.05 Nizhny Novgorod: Draw 3.05 FC Rostov Win: 2.40 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.35 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.55 Individualnyy total golov Nizhny Novgorod bolshe 0.5: 1.47 Individualnyy total golov Nizhny Novgorod menshe 0.5: 2.57 Individua…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:1
Events 17
Statistics 22
Lineups 44
min Event Player Team
29' 29' Normal Goal FC Rostov
46' 46' Substitution 1 | E. Smelov | assist/sub out: M. Urvantsev Nizhny Novgorod
46' 46' Substitution 2 | D. Lesovoy | assist/sub out: R. Cephas Nizhny Novgorod
46' 46' Substitution 3 | A. Balboa | assist/sub out: Y. Koledin F. Fernandez Nizhny Novgorod
51' 51' Yellow Card | K. Shchetinin FC Rostov
55' 55' Yellow Card | D. Chistyakov FC Rostov
61' 61' Substitution 2 | K. Kuchaev | assist/sub out: M. Mohebi D. Wolfe FC Rostov
61' 61' Substitution 3 | Ronaldo | assist/sub out: A. Langovich FC Rostov
Metric Nizhny Novgorod FC Rostov SStats
Zablokirovannye udary 2 4 final
Shots off target 5 4 final
Shots on target 1 3 final
Udary vsego 8 11 final
Fouls soversheno 18 14 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 3 final
Offsides 1 2 final
Ball possession, % 49 51 final
Nizhny Novgorod #1 R. Yatimov, #4 V. Melekhin, #7 Ronaldo, #8 A. Mironov, #10 K. Shchetinin, #18 K. Kuchaev, #22 D. Semenchuk, #40 I. Vakhania, #69 E. Golenkov, #78 D. Chistyakov, #99 T. Suleymanov
FC Rostov #4 I. Kirsch, #10 A. Balboa, #17 E. Smelov, #24 Edgardo FariG±a, #25 S. KariDЌ, #29 L. TiDЌiD‡, #30 N. Medvedev, #40 O. Olusegun, #70 M. Shnaptsev, #88 D. Lesovoy
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Langovich Nizhny Novgorod football.player.assists 0
A. Langovich Nizhny Novgorod Dribling popytki 3
A. Langovich Nizhny Novgorod Edinoborstva vyigrano 3
A. Langovich Nizhny Novgorod Fouls soversheno 2
A. Langovich Nizhny Novgorod Seyvy 0
A. Langovich Nizhny Novgorod football.player.minutes_played 29
A. Langovich Nizhny Novgorod Klyuchevye pasy 11
A. Langovich Nizhny Novgorod Reyting (staryy) 6.9
A. Langovich Nizhny Novgorod Otbory vsego 7
A. Mironov Nizhny Novgorod football.player.assists 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Nizhny Novgorod 30.2% 29.0%
Draw 30.0% 28.5% draw risk
FC Rostov 39.7% 42.6% market and model agree
xG - 0.98 : 1.26
Total 2.5 Over 10.6% - Under 89.4%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 29.0% / 28.5% / 42.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,416 / 1,482 Nizhny Novgorod / FC Rostov
RD 87 / 83 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.41 market consensus · no value · model 42.6%
X 3.24 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.13 market consensus · no value · model 29.0%
Double chance
X2 1.39 market consensus · no value · model 71.1%
12 1.39 market consensus · no value · model 71.6%
1X 1.61 market consensus · no value · model 57.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.37 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.10 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.37 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.83 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.30 market consensus · no value · model 10.6%
Under 2.5 1.67 market consensus · value +49.3% · model 89.4%
Both teams to score
No 1.81 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.93 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Marathonbet Pinnacle
2.90 34.5% 3.26 30.7% 3.20 31.3% 3.14 31.9%
X 3.25 30.8% 3.28 30.5% 3.22 31.1% 3.21 31.2%
2.33 42.9% 2.48 40.3% 2.43 41.2% 2.38 42.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Marathonbet
no 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.80 55.6%
yes 1.99 50.3% 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6%

Double chance

Outcome 1xBet Marathonbet
draw_away 1.39 71.9% 1.39 71.9%
home_away 1.39 71.9% 1.39 71.9%
home_draw 1.61 62.1% 1.61 62.1%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.03 97.1%
Over 0.75 — 1.06 94.3%
Over 1.0 — 1.08 92.6%
Over 1.25 — 1.24 80.7%
Over 1.5 — 1.39 71.9%
Over 1.75 — 1.51 66.2%
Over 2.0 — 1.67 59.9%
Over 2.25 2.02 49.5% 2.05 48.8%
Over 2.5 — 2.34 42.7%
Over 2.75 — 2.63 38.0%
Over 3.0 — 3.34 29.9%
Over 3.25 — 3.72 26.9%
Over 3.5 — 4.15 24.1%
Over 3.75 — 5.17 19.3%
Over 4.0 — 7.50 13.3%
Over 4.25 — 7.75 12.9%
Under 2.25 1.87 53.5% —
Match center
Nizhny Novgorod
Founded 2015
FC Rostov
Founded 1930
Match center
Nizhny Novgorod
AE A. Ektov Knee Injury
FC Rostov
OS O. Sako Yellow Cards
Nizhny Novgorod Founded: 2015
FC Rostov Founded: 1930
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.