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Premier League England

12.04.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction

12.04.2026 13:00 UTC

Finished

Premier League

Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa

England Football

Stadium City Ground

Capacity 30 576

Nottingham Forest

1 : 1

Finished

Aston Villa

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Aston Villa — 37%

1 · Nottingham Forest35.3%

X · draw27.8%

2 · Aston Villa36.9%

Model estimate: win Nottingham Forest 35.3%, draw 27.8%, win Aston Villa 36.9%. Model favourite — Aston Villa.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa April 12, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Nottingham Forest.

Line favourite market consensus: Nottingham Forest. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.63 / X 3.27 / 2 2.73
1X2 market: Nottingham Forest 36.1% / X 29.1% / Aston Villa 34.9%
Glicko: Nottingham Forest 35.3% / X 27.8% / Aston Villa 36.9%
Total 2.5: over probability 34.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%

1 36.1%

X 29.1%

2 34.8%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.5%

Over 2.5 48.6%

Under 2.5 51.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 28.1%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 12.04.2026 13:00 UTC

Stadium City Ground (Nottingham)

Capacity 30,576

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Aston Villa 37%

💹 Market Nottingham Forest 3610%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa

Nottingham Forest: Win 2.62 Nottingham Forest: Draw 3.30 Aston Villa Win: 2.62 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.00 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Nottingham Forest bolshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Nottingham Forest menshe 1.5: 1.50…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:1

Events 15

Statistics 24

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

11' 11' Yellow Card | Matty Cash David Munoz Botia Aston Villa

23' 23' Own Goal | Murillo Aston Villa

38' 38' Normal Goal | Neco Williams | assist/sub out: Callum Hudson-Odoi Nottingham Forest

45' 45' Yellow Card | Omari Hutchinson Nottingham Forest

63' 63' Yellow Card | Murillo Nottingham Forest

65' 65' Substitution 1 | Omari Hutchinson | assist/sub out: Chris Wood Nottingham Forest

67' 67' Yellow Card | John McGinn Pavle Miletić Aston Villa

77' 77' Substitution 1 | Ross Barkley | assist/sub out: Douglas Luiz L. Holer Aston Villa

Metric Nottingham Forest Aston Villa SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.15 1.02 final

Zablokirovannye udary 5 1 final

Shots off target 6 7 final

Shots on target 4 5 final

Udary vsego 15 12 final

Fouls soversheno 15 10 final

Zheltye kartochki 2 2 final

Offsides 1 2 final

Nottingham Forest #3 N. Williams, #5 Murillo, #6 I. Sangaré, #7 C. Hudson-Odoi, #8 E. Anderson, #10 Morgan Gibbs-White, #19 Igor Jesus, #21 Omari Hutchinson, #26 M. Sels, #31 N. Milenkovic, #34 O. Aina

Aston Villa #2 M. Cash, #3 Victor Lindelöf, #6 R. Barkley, #7 J. McGinn, #8 Y. Tielemans, #11 O. Watkins, #12 L. Digne, #14 Pau Torres, #24 A. Onana, #27 M. Rogers, #40 M. Bizot

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Onana Aston Villa football.player.assists 0

A. Onana Aston Villa Dribling popytki 7

A. Onana Aston Villa Dribling uspeshno 1

A. Onana Aston Villa Edinoborstva vsego 2

A. Onana Aston Villa Edinoborstva vyigrano 12

A. Onana Aston Villa Fouls soversheno 2

A. Onana Aston Villa Fouls na igroke 1

A. Onana Aston Villa Seyvy 0

A. Onana Aston Villa football.player.minutes_played 90

A. Onana Aston Villa Tochnost pasov % 1

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Nottingham Forest 35.4% 35.3%

Draw 28.7% 27.8% draw risk

Aston Villa 35.8% 36.9% market and model agree

xG - 1.18 : 1.21

Total 2.5 Over 34.1% - Under 66.0%

Model check - - Difference 0.01

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 35.3% / 27.8% / 36.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,471 / 1,569 Nottingham Forest / Aston Villa

RD 74 / 73 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.73 market consensus · no value · model 36.9%

X 3.27 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.63 market consensus · no value · model 35.3%

Double chance

X2 1.47 market consensus · no value · model 64.7%

12 1.32 market consensus · no value · model 72.3%

1X 1.45 market consensus · no value · model 63.1%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.49 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.19 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.65 market consensus · line only

2 +1 4.55 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.97 market consensus · no value · model 34.1%

Under 2.5 1.86 market consensus · value +22.7% · model 66.0%

Both teams to score

No 2.06 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.70 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.66 37.6%	2.56 39.1%	2.67 37.5%	2.63 38.0%	2.60 38.5%	2.57 38.9%
X	3.25 30.8%	3.30 30.3%	3.44 29.1%	3.10 32.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.25 30.8%
	2.58 38.8%	2.85 35.1%	2.86 35.0%	2.63 38.0%	2.70 37.0%	2.82 35.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	2.10 47.6%	2.08 48.1%	2.04 49.0%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.07 48.3%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.00 50.0%
yes	1.70 58.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.71 58.5%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.73 57.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.72 58.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.45 69.0%	1.54 64.9%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.44 69.4%
home_away	1.28 78.1%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.48 67.6%	1.48 67.6%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.45 69.0%	1.40 71.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.06 94.3%	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75	—	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.04 96.2%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.16 86.2%
Over 1.5	1.30 76.9%	—	1.28 78.1%
Over 1.75	—	—	1.35 74.1%
Over 2.5	1.91 52.4%	2.04 49.0%	—
Over 3.5	3.25 30.8%	—	—
Over 4.5	6.25 16.0%	—	—
Under 0.5	8.50 11.8%	—	—
Under 1.5	3.40 29.4%	—	—
Under 2.5	1.85 54.1%	1.88 53.2%	—
Under 3.5	1.33 75.2%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.11 90.1%	—	—

Match center

Nottingham Forest

Founded 1865

Aston Villa

Founded 1874

Match center

Nottingham Forest

WB W. Boly Knee Injury

J John Knee Injury

Aston Villa

JS J. Sancho Shoulder Injury

BK B. Kamara Knee Injury

Nottingham Forest Founded: 1865

Aston Villa Founded: 1874

Match center

Nottingham Forest

W D D L L

22.03 14:15 UTC Premier League

Nottingham Forest 3:0 Tottenkhem

15.03 14:00 UTC Premier League

Nottingham Forest 0:0 Fulham

04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Nottingham Forest 2:2 Manchester City

01.03 14:00 UTC Premier League

Nottingham Forest 1:2 Brighton

22.02 14:00 UTC Premier League

Nottingham Forest 0:1 Liverpul

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

1.2 Scored

1.0 Conceded

5 Points

Aston Villa

W L L L D

22.03 14:15 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 2:0 West Ham

15.03 14:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 1:3 Manchester United

04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 1:4 Chelsea

27.02 20:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 0:2 Wolves

21.02 15:00 UTC Premier League

Aston Villa 1:1 Leeds

1 Wins

1 Draws

3 Losses

1.0 Scored

2.0 Conceded

4 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyNottingham Forest - Aston Villa

Nottingham Forest

2 matches total

Aston Villa

Nottingham Forest: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Aston Villa: 2 (100%)

Biggest win Aston Villa 1:3 (03.01 12:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 03.01 12:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

03.01 12:30 UTC

Premier League

Nottingem Forest

1:3

Aston Villa

05.04 16:30 UTC

Premier League

Nottingem Forest

1:2

Aston Villa

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.