PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
Premier League
Premier League England
19.04.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
19.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Nottingham Forest - Burnley

England Football
Stadium City Ground
Capacity 30 576
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
4 : 1
Finished
Burnley
Burnley
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Nottingham Forest — 58%

1 · Nottingham Forest ✓ Pick58.2%
market64%
X · draw24.0%
market22%
2 · Burnley17.8%
market14%

Model estimate: win Nottingham Forest 58.2%, draw 24.0%, win Burnley 17.8%. Model favourite — Nottingham Forest.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Nottingham Forest - Burnley April 19, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Nottingham Forest.

Strongest: Nottingham Forest - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.48 / X 4.41 / 2 6.77
  • 1X2 market: Nottingham Forest 64.3% / X 21.6% / Burnley 14.1%
  • Glicko: Nottingham Forest 58.2% / X 24.0% / Burnley 17.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 39.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 ✓ Pick 64.3%
X 21.6%
2 14.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%
Over 2.5 55.2%
Under 2.5 44.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 61.7%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 19.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Stadium City Ground (Nottingham)
Capacity 30,576

? ? ??? ? ??????§? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ? ??? ? ? ??° ? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ?????  ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????±? ? ? ??? ? ??????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ?????¦? ? ??? ? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????· SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Nottingham Forest 58%
💹 Market Nottingham Forest 6433%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Nottingham Forest - Burnley

Nottingham Forest: Win 1.48 Nottingham Forest: Draw 4.50 Burnley Win: 7.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.73 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Nottingham Forest bolshe 1.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov Nottingham Forest menshe 1.5: 2.38 Ind…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 4:1
Events 17
Statistics 24
Lineups 39
min Event Player Team
42' 42' Substitution 1 | Murillo | assist/sub out: Jair Nottingham Forest
45+2' 45+2' Normal Goal | Zian Flemming Burnley
46' 46' Substitution 2 | Dilane Bakwa | assist/sub out: Igor Jesus Nottingham Forest
62' 62' Normal Goal | Morgan Gibbs-White William Zhang Nottingham Forest
64' 64' Substitution 1 | Marcus Edwards | assist/sub out: Lyle Foster Burnley
69' 69' Normal Goal | Morgan Gibbs-White William Zhang Nottingham Forest
75' 75' Yellow Card | Florentino Luís J. Obrian Burnley
76' 76' Substitution 3 | Chris Wood | assist/sub out: Ryan Yates Andre Nemeth Nottingham Forest
Metric Nottingham Forest Burnley SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.19 0.36 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 1 final
Shots off target 4 0 final
Shots on target 4 3 final
Udary vsego 10 4 final
Fouls soversheno 8 12 final
Zheltye kartochki 0 2 final
Offsides 2 0 final
Nottingham Forest #1 M. Dúbravka, #2 K. Walker, #3 Q. Hartman, #5 M. Estève, #8 L. Ugochukwu, #10 M. Edwards, #11 J. Anthony, #16 Florentino, #18 Hjalmar Ekdal, #19 Z. Flemming, #20 J. Ward-Prowse
Burnley #3 N. Williams, #5 Murillo, #6 I. Sangaré, #8 E. Anderson, #10 Morgan Gibbs-White, #11 C. Wood, #21 Omari Hutchinson, #26 M. Sels, #29 D. Bakwa, #31 N. Milenkovic, #34 O. Aina
Player Team Metric SStats
C. Wood Burnley football.player.assists 0
C. Wood Burnley Dribling popytki 3
C. Wood Burnley Edinoborstva vyigrano 6
C. Wood Burnley Fouls soversheno 1
C. Wood Burnley Seyvy 0
C. Wood Burnley football.player.minutes_played 76
C. Wood Burnley Tochnost pasov % 1
C. Wood Burnley Klyuchevye pasy 13
C. Wood Burnley Reyting (staryy) 6.5
C. Wood Burnley Shots on target 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Nottingham Forest 64.6% 58.2% market and model agree
Draw 21.8% 24.0% draw risk
Burnley 13.7% 17.8%
xG - 1.68 : 0.80
Total 2.5 Over 39.4% - Under 60.6%
Model check - - Difference 0.06
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.06

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 58.2% / 24.0% / 17.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,474 / 1,362 Nottingham Forest / Burnley
RD 73 / 76 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.77 market consensus · no value · model 17.8%
X 4.41 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.48 market consensus · no value · model 58.2%
Double chance
X2 2.62 market consensus · no value · model 41.8%
12 1.20 market consensus · no value · model 76.0%
1X 1.11 market consensus · no value · model 82.3%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.67 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.05 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 5.93 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.45 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.73 market consensus · no value · model 39.4%
Under 2.5 2.13 market consensus · value +29.0% · model 60.6%
Both teams to score
No 1.89 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.85 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.48 67.6% 1.55 64.5% 1.50 66.7% 1.44 69.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.52 65.8%
X 4.20 23.8% 4.35 23.0% 4.62 21.7% 4.00 25.0% 4.50 22.2% 4.45 22.5%
6.40 15.6% 6.00 16.7% 7.42 13.5% 6.00 16.7% 7.00 14.3% 7.00 14.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.93 51.8% 1.98 50.5% 1.87 53.5% 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.87 53.5% 1.85 54.1%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.55 39.2% 2.77 36.1% 2.50 40.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.65 37.7% 2.60 38.5%
home_away 1.17 85.5% 1.24 80.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.21 82.6% 1.17 85.5%
home_draw 1.11 90.1% 1.11 90.1% 1.11 90.1% 1.11 90.1% 1.13 88.5% 1.08 92.6%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.09 91.7%
Over 1.5 1.22 82.0% — 1.19 84.0%
Over 1.75 — — 1.24 80.7%
Over 2.0 — — 1.31 76.3%
Over 2.5 1.70 58.8% — —
Over 2.75 — 1.99 50.3% —
Over 3.5 2.80 35.7% — —
Over 4.5 5.00 20.0% — —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 4.00 25.0% — —
Under 2.5 2.10 47.6% — —
Under 2.75 — 1.91 52.4% —
Under 3.5 1.42 70.4% — —
Under 4.5 1.17 85.5% — —
Match center
Nottingham Forest
Founded 1865
Burnley
Founded 1882
Match center
Nottingham Forest
D W D D L
12.04 13:00 UTC Premier League
Nottingham Forest 1:1 Aston VillaAston Villa
22.03 14:15 UTC Premier League
Nottingham Forest 3:0 TottenkhemTottenkhem
15.03 14:00 UTC Premier League
Nottingham Forest 0:0 FulhamFulham
04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League
Nottingham Forest 2:2 Manchester CityManchester City
01.03 14:00 UTC Premier League
Nottingham Forest 1:2 BrightonBrighton
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.0 Conceded
6 Points
Burnley
L L D L L
11.04 14:00 UTC Premier League
Burnley 0:2 BrightonBrighton
21.03 15:00 UTC Premier League
Burnley 1:3 FulhamFulham
14.03 15:00 UTC Premier League
Burnley 0:0 BournemouthBournemouth
03.03 19:30 UTC Premier League
Burnley 0:2 EvertonEverton
28.02 15:00 UTC Premier League
Burnley 3:4 BrentfordBrentford
0 Wins
1 Draws
4 Losses
0.8 Scored
2.2 Conceded
1 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNottingham Forest - Burnley

Nottingham Forest
1 matches total
Burnley
Nottingham Forest: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Burnley: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 20.09 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (20.09 14:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

20.09 14:00 UTC Premier League
Nottingem Forest
1:1
Burnley
Match center
? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????±? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????»? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????µ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ????? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.