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Premier League
Premier League Ukraine
05.04.2026 12:30 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 12:30 UTC
Finished

Premier League

Ukraine

Obolon'-Brovar - Zorya Luhansk

Ukraine Football
Stadium Obolon Arena
Obolon'-Brovar
Obolon'-Brovar
3 : 3
Finished
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Zorya Luhansk — 47%

1 · Obolon'-Brovar24.9%
X · draw27.8%
2 · Zorya Luhansk47.3%

Model estimate: win Obolon'-Brovar 24.9%, draw 27.8%, win Zorya Luhansk 47.3%. Model favourite — Zorya Luhansk.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Obolon'-Brovar - Zorya Luhansk April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Zorya Luhansk.

Strongest: Zorya Luhansk - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.32 / X 3.20 / 2 2.21
  • 1X2 market: Obolon'-Brovar 28.3% / X 29.3% / Zorya Luhansk 42.4%
  • Glicko: Obolon'-Brovar 24.9% / X 27.8% / Zorya Luhansk 47.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 11.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.6%
1 28.3%
X 29.3%
2 42.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 7.1%
Over 2.5 43.4%
Under 2.5 56.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 44.8%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 12:30 UTC
Stadium Obolon Arena (Kyiv)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Zorya Luhansk 47%
💹 Market Zorya Luhansk 4244%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Obolon'-Brovar - Zorya Luhansk

Obolon'-Brovar: Win 3.50 Obolon'-Brovar: Draw 3.00 Zorya Luhansk Win: 2.05 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.38 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov Obolon'-Brovar bolshe 0.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Obolon'-Brovar menshe 0.5: 2.20 Individua…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:3
Events 14
Statistics 26
Lineups 0
min Event Player Team
6' 6' Normal Goal | R. Vantukh Zorya Luhansk
36' 36' Normal Goal | V. Pryimak Obolon'-Brovar
51' 51' Normal Goal | I. Perduta G. Martin Zorya Luhansk
60' 60' Normal Goal | R. Volokhatyi Obolon'-Brovar
65' 65' Penalty | P. Budkivsky Zorya Luhansk
71' 71' Substitution 4 | S. Sukhanov | assist/sub out: Y. Prokopenko Obolon'-Brovar
71' 71' Substitution 5 | I. Nesterenko | assist/sub out: O. Slobodyan Obolon'-Brovar
72' 72' Yellow Card Zorya Luhansk
Metric Obolon'-Brovar Zorya Luhansk SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.22 1.89 final
Zablokirovannye udary 7 0 final
Shots off target 5 5 final
Shots on target 4 3 final
Udary vsego 16 8 final
Fouls soversheno 13 12 final
Red cards 0 0 final
Zheltye kartochki 0 2 final
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Obolon'-Brovar 28.3% 24.9%
Draw 29.3% 27.8% draw risk
Zorya Luhansk 42.4% 47.3% market and model agree
xG - 0.90 : 1.35
Total 2.5 Over 11.8% - Under 88.2%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Thin market consensus Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 24.9% / 27.8% / 47.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,462 / 1,523 Obolon'-Brovar / Zorya Luhansk
RD 83 / 85 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.21 market consensus · weak value +4.6% · model 47.3%
X 3.20 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.32 market consensus · no value · model 24.9%
Double chance
X2 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 75.1%
12 1.32 market consensus · no value · model 72.2%
1X 1.63 market consensus · no value · model 52.7%
Handicap
2 -1 1.11 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.33 market consensus · line only
1 -1 5.90 market consensus · line only
1 +1 1.30 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.15 market consensus · no value · model 11.8%
Under 2.5 1.65 market consensus · value +45.6% · model 88.2%
Both teams to score
No 1.85 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.95 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 1xBet
3.32 30.1%
X 3.20 31.3%
2.21 45.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 1xBet
no 1.85 54.1%
yes 1.95 51.3%

Double chance

Outcome 1xBet
draw_away 1.30 76.9%
home_away 1.32 75.8%
home_draw 1.63 61.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2%
Over 1.0 1.09 91.7%
Over 1.25 1.23 81.3%
Over 1.5 1.38 72.5%
Over 1.75 1.47 68.0%
Over 2.0 1.62 61.7%
Over 2.25 1.89 52.9%
Over 2.5 2.15 46.5%
Over 2.75 2.50 40.0%
Over 3.0 3.18 31.5%
Over 3.25 3.55 28.2%
Over 3.5 3.91 25.6%
Over 3.75 4.90 20.4%
Over 4.0 6.93 14.4%
Over 4.25 7.30 13.7%
Over 4.5 7.65 13.1%
Over 5.0 13.70 7.3%
Under 0.5 8.50 11.8%
Match center
Obolon'-Brovar
Founded 2013
Zorya Luhansk
Founded 1923
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.