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Premier League
Premier League Ukraine
05.04.2026 12:30 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 12:30 UTC
Finished

Premier League

Ukraine

Shakhtar Donetsk - Ruh Lviv

Ukraine Football
Stadium Arena Lviv
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
3 : 0
Finished
Ruh Lviv
Ruh Lviv
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Shakhtar Donetsk — 77%

1 · Shakhtar Donetsk ✓ Pick77.4%
market85%
X · draw15.0%
market11%
2 · Ruh Lviv7.6%
market4%

Model estimate: win Shakhtar Donetsk 77.4%, draw 15.0%, win Ruh Lviv 7.6%. Model favourite — Shakhtar Donetsk.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Shakhtar Donetsk - Ruh Lviv April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Shakhtar Donetsk.

Strongest: Shakhtar Donetsk - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.10 / X 8.50 / 2 23.00
  • 1X2 market: Shakhtar Donetsk 85.0% / X 11.0% / Ruh Lviv 4.1%
  • Glicko: Shakhtar Donetsk 77.4% / X 15.0% / Ruh Lviv 7.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 19.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.0%
1 ✓ Pick 84.9%
X 11.0%
2 4.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 7.2%
Over 2.5 59.1%
Under 2.5 40.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 81.5%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 12:30 UTC
Stadium Arena Lviv

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Shakhtar Donetsk 77%
💹 Market Shakhtar Donetsk 8495%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Shakhtar Donetsk - Ruh Lviv

Shakhtar Donetsk: Win 1.12 Shakhtar Donetsk: Draw 6.50 Ruh Lviv Win: 21.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.60 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.30 Individualnyy total golov Shakhtar Donetsk bolshe 2.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Shakhtar Donetsk menshe 2.5: 1.91 Indiv…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:0
Events 17
Statistics 26
Lineups 23
min Event Player Team
34' 34' Normal Goal | Eguinaldo | assist/sub out: A. Bondarenko Shakhtar Donetsk
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Tutti | assist/sub out: I. Neves Ruh Lviv
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Marlon | assist/sub out: M. Matviienko Shakhtar Donetsk
50' 50' Substitution 2 | P. Obah | assist/sub out: Isaque Silva Shakhtar Donetsk
59' 59' Yellow Card Ruh Lviv
62' 62' Normal Goal | Eguinaldo Shakhtar Donetsk
66' 66' Substitution 2 | M. Boyko | assist/sub out: M. Kyrychok Ruh Lviv
67' 67' Substitution 3 | S. Diallo | assist/sub out: V. Runich Ruh Lviv
Metric Shakhtar Donetsk Ruh Lviv SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 3.92 0 final
Zablokirovannye udary 6 0 final
Shots off target 5 1 final
Shots on target 10 0 final
Udary vsego 22 1 final
Fouls soversheno 5 13 final
Red cards 0 0 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 3 final
Shakhtar Donetsk #2 L. Traore, #4 Marlon, #5 V. Bondar, #7 Eguinaldo, #10 Pedrinho, #16 I. Azarovi, #21 A. Bondarenko, #26 Y. Konoplya, #29 Y. Nazaryna, #31 D. Riznyk, #68 P. Obah
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Bondarenko Shakhtar Donetsk football.player.assists 1
A. Bondarenko Shakhtar Donetsk Dribling popytki 3
A. Bondarenko Shakhtar Donetsk Dribling uspeshno 1
A. Bondarenko Shakhtar Donetsk Edinoborstva vyigrano 9
A. Bondarenko Shakhtar Donetsk Fouls soversheno 1
A. Bondarenko Shakhtar Donetsk Fouls na igroke 1
A. Bondarenko Shakhtar Donetsk football.player.goals 0
A. Bondarenko Shakhtar Donetsk Conceded golov 0
A. Bondarenko Shakhtar Donetsk Seyvy 0
A. Bondarenko Shakhtar Donetsk football.player.minutes_played 90
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Shakhtar Donetsk 84.9% 77.4% market and model agree
Draw 11.0% 15.0% draw risk
Ruh Lviv 4.1% 7.6%
xG - 2.45 : 0.63
Total 2.5 Over 19.7% - Under 80.3%
Model check - - Difference 0.08
Thin market consensus Market vs Glicko gap: 0.08

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 77.4% / 15.0% / 7.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,711 / 1,425 Shakhtar Donetsk / Ruh Lviv
RD 92 / 85 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
X 8.50 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.10 market consensus · no value · model 77.4%
Double chance
X2 6.23 market consensus · no value · model 22.6%
12 1.05 market consensus · no value · model 85.0%
Handicap
2 -1 5.36 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.13 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.58 market consensus · no value · model 19.7%
Under 2.5 2.28 market consensus · weak value +83.2% · model 80.3%
Both teams to score
No 1.30 market consensus · line only
Yes 3.30 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 1xBet
1.10 90.9%
X 8.50 11.8%
23.00 4.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 1xBet
no 1.30 76.9%
yes 3.30 30.3%

Double chance

Outcome 1xBet
draw_away 6.23 16.1%
home_away 1.05 95.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 1xBet
Over 1.0 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.5 1.18 84.8%
Over 1.75 1.21 82.6%
Over 2.0 1.25 80.0%
Over 2.25 1.42 70.4%
Over 2.5 1.58 63.3%
Over 2.75 1.72 58.1%
Over 3.0 1.94 51.6%
Over 3.25 2.20 45.5%
Over 3.5 2.45 40.8%
Over 3.75 2.87 34.8%
Over 4.0 3.62 27.6%
Over 4.25 3.94 25.4%
Over 4.5 4.26 23.5%
Over 4.75 5.27 19.0%
Over 5.0 7.19 13.9%
Over 5.5 7.80 12.8%
Over 6.0 13.20 7.6%
Match center
Shakhtar Donetsk
Founded 1936
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.