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Premier League
Premier League Russia
05.04.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 16:30 UTC
Finished

Premier League

Russia

Spartak Moscow - Lokomotiv

Russia Football
Stadium Lukoyl Arena
Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow
2 : 1
Finished
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Spartak Moscow — 44%

1 · Spartak Moscow43.6%
X · draw25.2%
2 · Lokomotiv31.2%

Model estimate: win Spartak Moscow 43.6%, draw 25.2%, win Lokomotiv 31.2%. Model favourite — Spartak Moscow.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Spartak Moscow - Lokomotiv April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Spartak Moscow.

Strongest: Spartak Moscow - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.90 / X 3.94 / 2 3.79
  • 1X2 market: Spartak Moscow 50.4% / X 24.3% / Lokomotiv 25.3%
  • Glicko: Spartak Moscow 43.6% / X 25.2% / Lokomotiv 31.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 16.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.4%
1 50.4%
X 24.3%
2 25.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.7%
Over 2.5 55.8%
Under 2.5 44.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 47.6%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 16:30 UTC
Stadium Lukoyl Arena (Moskva)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Spartak Moscow 44%
💹 Market Spartak Moscow 5039%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Spartak Moscow - Lokomotiv

Spartak Moscow: ?????±?µ???° 2.05 Spartak Moscow: ?????????? 3.45 ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????  ?????±?µ???°: 3.45 ???±?????? ???????°?» ?????»???? ?±???»?????µ 2.5: 1.64 ???±?????? ???????°?» ?????»???? ???µ???????µ 2.5: 2.17 ?????????????????°?»???????? ???????°?» ?????»???? Spartak Moscow ?±???»?????µ 1.5: 1.82 ?????????????????°?»???????? ???????°?» ?????»???? Spartak Moscow ???µ???????µ 1.5: 1.92 ?????????????????°?»????????¦

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:1
Events 14
Statistics 24
Lineups 39
min Event Player Team
23' 23' Normal Goal Lokomotiv
46' 46' Substitution 1 | L. Garcia | assist/sub out: M. Ugalde Spartak Moscow
49' 49' Yellow Card Lokomotiv
58' 58' Yellow Card Lokomotiv
66' 66' Penalty | E. Barco Spartak Moscow
68' 68' Substitution 5 | Z. Bakaev | assist/sub out: N. Komlichenko Lokomotiv
72' 72' Yellow Card | E. Morozov Lokomotiv
72' 72' Red Card | E. Morozov Lokomotiv
Metric Spartak Moscow Lokomotiv SStats
Zablokirovannye udary 2 2 final
Shots off target 8 4 final
Shots on target 6 4 final
Udary vsego 16 10 final
Fouls soversheno 15 14 final
Red cards 0 1 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 5 final
Offsides 1 0 final
Spartak Moscow #3 C. Wooh, #4 A. Djiku, #5 E. Barco, #7 P. Solari, #11 L. García, #18 N. Umyarov, #47 R. Zobnin, #68 R. Litvinov, #83 Gedson Fernandes, #97 D. Denisov, #98 A. Maksimenko
Lokomotiv #1 A. Mitryushkin, #3 Lucas Fasson, #7 Z. Bakaev, #10 D. Vorobjev, #19 A. Rudenko, #23 C. Montes, #25 D. Prutsev, #45 A. Siljanov, #83 A. Batrakov, #93 A. Karpukas
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Batrakov Lokomotiv football.player.assists 1
A. Batrakov Lokomotiv Dribling popytki 5
A. Batrakov Lokomotiv Dribling uspeshno 3
A. Batrakov Lokomotiv Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Batrakov Lokomotiv Edinoborstva vyigrano 11
A. Batrakov Lokomotiv Fouls soversheno 1
A. Batrakov Lokomotiv Fouls na igroke 1
A. Batrakov Lokomotiv Seyvy 0
A. Batrakov Lokomotiv football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Batrakov Lokomotiv Tochnost pasov % 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Spartak Moscow 51.0% 43.6% market and model agree
Draw 24.3% 25.2% draw risk
Lokomotiv 24.7% 31.2%
xG - 1.52 : 1.25
Total 2.5 Over 16.3% - Under 83.7%
Model check - - Difference 0.07
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.07

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 43.6% / 25.2% / 31.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,596 / 1,636 Spartak Moscow / Lokomotiv
RD 84 / 86 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.79 market consensus · no value · model 31.2%
X 3.94 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.90 market consensus · no value · model 43.6%
Double chance
X2 1.95 market consensus · value +10.0% · model 56.4%
12 1.28 market consensus · no value · model 74.8%
1X 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 68.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.01 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.48 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.98 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.60 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.73 market consensus · no value · model 16.3%
Under 2.5 2.18 market consensus · weak value +82.5% · model 83.7%
Both teams to score
No 2.20 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.62 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Marathonbet Pinnacle
1.87 53.5% 1.96 51.0% 1.92 52.1% 1.85 54.1%
X 3.80 26.3% 4.12 24.3% 4.05 24.7% 3.79 26.4%
3.55 28.2% 3.82 26.2% 3.76 26.6% 4.04 24.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Marathonbet
no 2.22 45.1% 2.20 45.5% 2.17 46.1%
yes 1.64 61.0% 1.61 62.1% 1.61 62.1%

Double chance

Outcome 1xBet Marathonbet
draw_away 1.94 51.6% 1.95 51.3%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.28 78.1%
home_draw 1.31 76.3% 1.31 76.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.11 90.1%
Over 1.5 — 1.20 83.3%
Over 1.75 — 1.26 79.4%
Over 2.0 — 1.31 76.3%
Over 2.25 — 1.57 63.7%
Over 2.5 — 1.76 56.8%
Over 2.75 1.89 52.9% 1.94 51.6%
Over 3.0 — 2.14 46.7%
Over 3.25 — 2.39 41.8%
Over 3.5 — 2.66 37.6%
Over 3.75 — 3.14 31.9%
Over 4.0 — 4.10 24.4%
Over 4.25 — 4.37 22.9%
Over 4.5 — 4.65 21.5%
Under 2.75 2.00 50.0% —
Match center
Spartak Moscow
Founded 1922
Lokomotiv
Founded 1923
Match center
Spartak Moscow
SB S. Babić Knee Injury
M Marquinhos Yellow Cards
Lokomotiv
SP S. Pinyaev Muscle Injury
Spartak Moscow Founded: 1922
Lokomotiv Founded: 1923
Match center

Full head-to-head historySpartak Moscow - Lokomotiv

Spartak Moscow
0 matches total
Lokomotiv
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.