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Premier League
Premier League England
24.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
24.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

Premier League

England

Sunderland - Nottingham Forest

England Football
Stadium Stadium of Light
Capacity 49 000
Sunderland
Sunderland
0 : 5
Finished
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Nottingham Forest — 40%

1 · Sunderland31.5%
X · draw28.1%
2 · Nottingham Forest40.4%

Model estimate: win Sunderland 31.5%, draw 28.1%, win Nottingham Forest 40.4%. Model favourite — Nottingham Forest.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sunderland - Nottingham Forest April 24, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Nottingham Forest.

Strongest: Nottingham Forest - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.73 / X 3.21 / 2 2.65
  • 1X2 market: Sunderland 34.8% / X 29.5% / Nottingham Forest 35.7%
  • Glicko: Sunderland 31.5% / X 28.1% / Nottingham Forest 40.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 37.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.5%
1 34.7%
X 29.5%
2 35.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%
Over 2.5 44.7%
Under 2.5 55.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 28.6%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 24.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Stadium of Light (Sunderland)
Capacity 49,000

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Nottingham Forest 40%
💹 Market Nottingham Forest 3573%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Sunderland - Nottingham Forest

Sunderland: Win 2.80 Sunderland: Draw 3.20 Nottingham Forest Win: 2.62 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.10 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Sunderland bolshe 1.5: 2.62 Individualnyy total golov Sunderland menshe 1.5: 1.44 Individualnyy total …

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:5
Events 20
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
17' 17' Own Goal | T. Hume Nottingham Forest
31' 31' Normal Goal | Chris Wood | assist/sub out: Morgan Gibbs-White Andre Nemeth Nottingham Forest
34' 34' Normal Goal | Morgan Gibbs-White | assist/sub out: Igor Jesus William Zhang Nottingham Forest
37' 37' Normal Goal | Igor Jesus Anas Al Ghamdi Nottingham Forest
46' 46' Substitution 3 | I. Sangare | assist/sub out: Nicolás Domínguez Oumar Diakité Nottingham Forest
46' 46' Substitution 1 | C. Rigg | assist/sub out: Reinildo Sunderland
50' 50' Substitution 4 | Jair | assist/sub out: Morato Nottingham Forest
51' 51' Yellow Card | H. Diarra Sunderland
Metric Sunderland Nottingham Forest SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.7 1.1 final
Zablokirovannye udary 7 2 final
Shots off target 3 2 final
Shots on target 4 6 final
Udary vsego 14 10 final
Fouls soversheno 13 15 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 5 final
Offsides 1 1 final
Sunderland #3 N. Williams, #6 I. Sangaré, #8 E. Anderson, #10 Morgan Gibbs-White, #11 C. Wood, #19 Igor Jesus, #21 Omari Hutchinson, #23 Jair, #26 M. Sels, #31 N. Milenkovic, #34 O. Aina
Nottingham Forest #5 D. Ballard, #9 Brian Brobbey, #11 C. Rigg, #15 Omar Alderete, #19 H. Diarra, #20 N. Mukiele, #22 Robin Roefs, #27 N. Sadiki, #28 E. Le Fée, #32 T. Hume, #34 G. Xhaka
Player Team Metric SStats
C. Wood Sunderland football.player.assists 0
C. Wood Sunderland Dribling popytki 4
C. Wood Sunderland Edinoborstva vsego 1
C. Wood Sunderland Edinoborstva vyigrano 7
C. Wood Sunderland football.player.goals 1
C. Wood Sunderland Conceded golov 1
C. Wood Sunderland Seyvy 0
C. Wood Sunderland football.player.minutes_played 88
C. Wood Sunderland Klyuchevye pasy 12
C. Wood Sunderland Pasy vsego 2
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Sunderland 34.9% 31.5%
Draw 29.4% 28.1% draw risk
Nottingham Forest 35.7% 40.4% market and model agree
xG - 1.06 : 1.25
Total 2.5 Over 37.8% - Under 62.2%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 31.5% / 28.1% / 40.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,513 / 1,482 Sunderland / Nottingham Forest
RD 73 / 72 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.65 market consensus · no value · model 40.4%
X 3.21 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.73 market consensus · no value · model 31.5%
Double chance
X2 1.44 market consensus · no value · model 68.6%
12 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 71.9%
1X 1.47 market consensus · no value · model 59.6%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.47 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.17 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.57 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.57 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.13 market consensus · no value · model 37.8%
Under 2.5 1.72 market consensus · value +7.0% · model 62.2%
Both teams to score
No 1.91 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.84 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.64 37.9% 2.82 35.5% 2.70 37.0% 2.80 35.7% 2.70 37.0% 2.75 36.4%
X 3.20 31.3% 3.35 29.9% 3.10 32.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.20 31.3%
2.64 37.9% 2.76 36.2% 2.60 38.5% 2.62 38.2% 2.72 36.8% 2.70 37.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.91 52.4% 1.89 52.9% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.93 51.8%
yes 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.83 54.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.45 69.0% 1.49 67.1% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.40 71.4%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.45 69.0% 1.51 66.2% 1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.44 69.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.07 93.5% 1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0 — 1.05 95.2%
Over 1.25 — 1.19 84.0%
Over 1.5 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2%
Over 1.75 — 1.43 69.9%
Over 2.0 — 1.58 63.3%
Over 2.25 — 1.85 54.1%
Over 2.5 2.10 47.6% —
Over 3.5 3.85 26.0% —
Over 4.5 8.00 12.5% —
Under 0.5 8.00 12.5% —
Under 1.5 3.00 33.3% —
Under 2.5 1.70 58.8% —
Under 3.5 1.25 80.0% —
Under 4.5 1.07 93.5% —
Match center
Sunderland
Founded 1879
Nottingham Forest
Founded 1865
Match center
Sunderland
L W W L W
19.04 13:00 UTC Premier League
Sunderland 3:4 Aston VillaAston Villa
12.04 13:00 UTC Premier League
Sunderland 1:0 TottenkhemTottenkhem
22.03 12:00 UTC Premier League
Sunderland 2:1 NyukaslNyukasl
14.03 15:00 UTC Premier League
Sunderland 0:1 BrightonBrighton
03.03 19:30 UTC Premier League
Sunderland 1:0 LeedsLeeds
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.2 Conceded
9 Points
Nottingham Forest
W D W D D
19.04 13:00 UTC Premier League
Nottingham Forest 4:1 BurnleyBurnley
12.04 13:00 UTC Premier League
Nottingham Forest 1:1 Aston VillaAston Villa
22.03 14:15 UTC Premier League
Nottingham Forest 3:0 TottenkhemTottenkhem
15.03 14:00 UTC Premier League
Nottingham Forest 0:0 FulhamFulham
04.03 19:30 UTC Premier League
Nottingham Forest 2:2 Manchester CityManchester City
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.8 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historySunderland - Nottingham Forest

Sunderland
1 matches total
Nottingham Forest
Sunderland: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Nottingham Forest: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Sunderland 1:0 (27.09 16:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 1 goals (1:0, 27.09 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 1

Match history

27.09 16:30 UTC Premier League
Sunderland
1:0
Nottingem Forest
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.