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Premiership
Premiership England
05.04.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Finished

Premiership

England

Livingston - Heart Of Midlothian

England Football
Stadium Dom areny Set Fare
Livingston
Livingston
2 : 2
Finished
Heart Of Midlothian
Heart Of Midlothian
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Heart Of Midlothian — 59%

1 · Livingston17.6%
market17%
X · draw23.3%
market23%
2 · Heart Of Midlothian ✓ Pick59.1%
market60%

Model estimate: win Livingston 17.6%, draw 23.3%, win Heart Of Midlothian 59.1%. Model favourite — Heart Of Midlothian.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Livingston - Heart Of Midlothian April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Heart Of Midlothian.

Strongest: Heart Of Midlothian - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 5.51 / X 4.02 / 2 1.54
  • 1X2 market: Livingston 16.8% / X 23.0% / Heart Of Midlothian 60.1%
  • Glicko: Livingston 17.6% / X 23.3% / Heart Of Midlothian 59.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 83.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.0%
1 16.8%
X 23.0%
2 ✓ Pick 60.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.4%
Over 2.5 55.3%
Under 2.5 44.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 60.5%
Total Over 2.5
Score 1:2

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Stadium Dom areny Set Fare (Livingston)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Heart Of Midlothian 59%
💹 Market Heart Of Midlothian 6012%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Livingston - Heart Of Midlothian

Livingston: Win 7.50 Livingston: Draw 4.33 Heart Of Midlothian Win: 1.44 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.73 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Livingston bolshe 0.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Livingston menshe 0.5: 2.10 Individualnyy tota…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:2
Events 18
Statistics 26
Lineups 2
min Event Player Team
5' 5' Normal Goal Livingston
22' 22' Yellow Card | L. Smith Livingston
24' 24' Normal Goal Heart Of Midlothian
34' 34' Yellow Card | S. Arfield M. Kone Livingston
45' 45' Yellow Card Heart Of Midlothian
51' 51' Normal Goal | Cláudio Braga Heart Of Midlothian
58' 58' Normal Goal | L. Smith | assist/sub out: J. Nouble Livingston
65' 65' Substitution 6 | S. Arfield | assist/sub out: S. Pittman M. Kone Livingston
Metric Livingston Heart Of Midlothian SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.97 1.86 final
Zablokirovannye udary 7 5 final
Shots off target 5 8 final
Shots on target 3 6 final
Udary vsego 15 19 final
Fouls soversheno 10 10 final
Red cards 0 1 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 1 final
Heart Of Midlothian #3 Babacar Fati
Player Team Metric SStats
R. Mato Livingston Seyvy 0
Babacar Fati Heart Of Midlothian football.player.assists 0
Babacar Fati Heart Of Midlothian Dribling popytki 3
Babacar Fati Heart Of Midlothian Dribling uspeshno 1
Babacar Fati Heart Of Midlothian Edinoborstva vyigrano 6
Babacar Fati Heart Of Midlothian Fouls soversheno 1
Babacar Fati Heart Of Midlothian Fouls na igroke 1
Babacar Fati Heart Of Midlothian Conceded golov 1
Babacar Fati Heart Of Midlothian Seyvy 0
Babacar Fati Heart Of Midlothian football.player.minutes_played 87
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Livingston 16.1% 17.6%
Draw 22.4% 23.3% draw risk
Heart Of Midlothian 61.5% 59.1% market and model agree
xG - 0.83 : 1.75
Total 2.5 Over 83.2% - Under 16.8%
Model check - - Difference 0.02
The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 17.6% / 23.3% / 59.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,359 / 1,639 Livingston / Heart Of Midlothian
RD 77 / 76 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.54 market consensus · no value · model 59.1%
X 4.02 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 5.51 market consensus · no value · model 17.6%
Double chance
X2 1.13 market consensus · no value · model 82.4%
12 1.21 market consensus · no value · model 76.7%
1X 2.38 market consensus · no value · model 40.9%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.14 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.01 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.53 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.92 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.70 market consensus · value +41.5% · model 83.2%
Under 2.5 2.10 market consensus · no value · model 16.8%
Both teams to score
No 1.94 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.79 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
6.00 16.7% 5.00 20.0% 5.35 18.7% 6.00 16.7% 5.75 17.4% 5.80 17.2%
X 3.90 25.6% 4.15 24.1% 4.10 24.4% 3.80 26.3% 3.90 25.6% 4.15 24.1%
1.55 64.5% 1.52 65.8% 1.57 63.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.57 63.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.00 50.0% 1.96 51.0% 1.90 52.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 1.88 53.2% 2.02 49.5%
yes 1.75 57.1% 1.82 55.0% 1.80 55.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.70 58.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano BetVictor
draw_away 1.12 89.3% 1.13 88.5% 1.11 90.1% 1.14 87.7% 1.16 86.2% 1.14 87.7%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.21 82.6% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.15 87.0%
home_draw 2.38 42.0% 2.35 42.6% 2.45 40.8% 2.38 42.0% 2.47 40.5% 2.38 42.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.09 91.7%
Over 1.5 1.22 82.0% — 1.18 84.8%
Over 1.75 — — 1.23 81.3%
Over 2.5 1.70 58.8% — —
Over 2.75 — 1.92 52.1% —
Over 3.5 2.75 36.4% — —
Over 4.5 5.00 20.0% — —
Under 0.5 9.00 11.1% — —
Under 1.5 3.90 25.6% — —
Under 2.5 2.10 47.6% — —
Under 2.75 — 1.90 52.6% —
Under 3.5 1.42 70.4% — —
Under 4.5 1.15 87.0% — —
Match center
Livingston
Founded 1943
Heart Of Midlothian
Founded 1874
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.