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Primeira Liga
Primeira Liga Portugal
04.04.2026 19:30 UTC Match prediction
04.04.2026 19:30 UTC
Finished

Primeira Liga

Portugal

FC Porto - Famalicao

Portugal Football
Stadium Estádio Do Dragão
Capacity 50 399
FC Porto
FC Porto
2 : 2
Finished
Famalicao
Famalicao
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 FC Porto — 63%

1 · FC Porto ✓ Pick63.5%
market66%
X · draw21.9%
market22%
2 · Famalicao14.6%
market12%

Model estimate: win FC Porto 63.5%, draw 21.9%, win Famalicao 14.6%. Model favourite — FC Porto.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FC Porto - Famalicao April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like FC Porto.

Strongest: FC Porto - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.42 / X 4.31 / 2 7.74
  • 1X2 market: FC Porto 66.0% / X 21.8% / Famalicao 12.2%
  • Glicko: FC Porto 63.5% / X 21.9% / Famalicao 14.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 82.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.5%
1 ✓ Pick 66.1%
X 21.8%
2 12.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.6%
Over 2.5 49.1%
Under 2.5 50.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 65.5%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 04.04.2026 19:30 UTC
Stadium Estádio Do Dragão (Porto)
Capacity 50,399

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model FC Porto 63%
💹 Market FC Porto 6603%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

FC Porto - Famalicao

FC Porto: Win 1.44 FC Porto: Draw 4.20 Famalicao Win: 7.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.95 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.85 Individualnyy total golov FC Porto bolshe 1.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov FC Porto menshe 1.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Famalicao …

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:2
Events 21
Statistics 24
Lineups 6
min Event Player Team
0' 0' Yellow Card | Pedro Bondo Famalicao
21' 21' Yellow Card | Zaidu FC Porto
35' 35' Normal Goal | A. Costa FC Porto
44' 44' Substitution 1 | R. Mora | assist/sub out: S. Fofana FC Porto
45+2' 45+2' Yellow Card | T. Van de Looi Famalicao
46' 46' Substitution 2 | Zaidu | assist/sub out: M. Fernandes FC Porto
46' 46' Substitution 3 | Zaidu | assist/sub out: M. Fernandes FC Porto
54' 54' Normal Goal | Sorriso Famalicao
Metric FC Porto Famalicao SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.42 1.77 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 1 final
Shots off target 2 4 final
Shots on target 3 6 final
Udary vsego 8 11 final
Fouls soversheno 20 14 final
Zheltye kartochki 5 4 final
Offsides 2 0 final
FC Porto #4 J. Kiwior, #29 Terem Moffi, #77 Oskar Pietuszewski
Player Team Metric SStats
J. Kiwior FC Porto football.player.assists 0
J. Kiwior FC Porto Dribling popytki 7
J. Kiwior FC Porto Edinoborstva vsego 2
J. Kiwior FC Porto Edinoborstva vyigrano 12
J. Kiwior FC Porto Fouls soversheno 1
J. Kiwior FC Porto Seyvy 0
J. Kiwior FC Porto football.player.minutes_played 90
J. Kiwior FC Porto Klyuchevye pasy 93
J. Kiwior FC Porto Reyting (staryy) 7
J. Kiwior FC Porto Perekhvaty 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
FC Porto 67.1% 63.5% market and model agree
Draw 21.2% 21.9% draw risk
Famalicao 11.7% 14.6%
xG - 1.85 : 0.75
Total 2.5 Over 82.4% - Under 17.6%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 63.5% / 21.9% / 14.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,811 / 1,579 FC Porto / Famalicao
RD 90 / 78 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 7.74 market consensus · no value · model 14.6%
X 4.31 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.42 market consensus · no value · model 63.5%
Double chance
X2 2.76 market consensus · no value · model 36.5%
12 1.19 market consensus · no value · model 78.1%
1X 1.08 market consensus · no value · model 85.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.84 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.15 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 6.30 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.40 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.93 market consensus · weak value +59.1% · model 82.4%
Under 2.5 1.86 market consensus · no value · model 17.6%
Both teams to score
No 1.65 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.12 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.42 70.4% 1.42 70.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4%
X 4.10 24.4% 4.35 23.0% 4.61 21.7% 4.33 23.1% 4.30 23.3% 4.20 23.8%
8.30 12.1% 6.90 14.5% 8.05 12.4% 7.50 13.3% 8.25 12.1% 8.00 12.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.65 60.6% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.65 60.6% 1.63 61.4% 1.67 59.9%
yes 2.10 47.6% 2.25 44.4% 2.11 47.4% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2% 2.20 45.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.11 47.4% 2.05 48.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 2.75 36.4% 2.88 34.7% 2.62 38.2% 2.92 34.3% 2.80 35.7% 2.75 36.4%
home_away 1.18 84.8% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.21 82.6% 1.17 85.5% 1.13 88.5%
home_draw 1.07 93.5% 1.08 92.6% 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9% 1.06 94.3% 1.10 90.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.06 94.3% — 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.14 87.7%
Over 1.5 1.30 76.9% — 1.26 79.4%
Over 1.75 — — 1.32 75.8%
Over 2.5 1.95 51.3% 2.01 49.8% —
Over 3.5 3.40 29.4% — —
Over 4.5 6.50 15.4% — —
Under 0.5 8.50 11.8% — —
Under 1.5 3.35 29.9% — —
Under 2.5 1.83 54.6% 1.88 53.2% —
Under 3.5 1.30 76.9% — —
Under 4.5 1.10 90.9% — —
Match center
FC Porto
Founded 1893
Famalicao
Founded 1931
Match center

Full head-to-head historyFC Porto - Famalicao

FC Porto
0 matches total
Famalicao
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.