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Primeira Liga
Primeira Liga Portugal
04.04.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction
04.04.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Moreirense - SC Braga

Portugal Football
Stadium Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Moreirense
Moreirense
0 : 1
Finished
SC Braga
SC Braga

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Moreirense - SC Braga April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like SC Braga.

Line favourite market consensus: SC Braga. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 6.03 / X 3.97 / 2 1.55
  • 1X2 market: Moreirense 15.6% / X 23.7% / SC Braga 60.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 51.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.3%
1 15.6%
X 23.7%
2 60.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%
Over 2.5 48.3%
Under 2.5 51.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 04.04.2026 17:00 UTC
Match center

Moreirense - SC Braga

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.55 market consensus · line only
X 3.97 market consensus · line only
1 6.03 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.12 market consensus · line only
12 1.23 market consensus · line only
1X 2.40 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.15 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.01 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.54 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.95 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.97 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.84 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.74 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.99 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
6.60 15.2% 5.50 18.2% 6.18 16.2% 6.00 16.7% 6.30 15.9% 6.50 15.4%
X 3.85 26.0% 4.05 24.7% 4.14 24.2% 3.90 25.6% 4.00 25.0% 4.00 25.0%
1.51 66.2% 1.54 64.9% 1.59 62.9% 1.53 65.4% 1.55 64.5% 1.50 66.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Unibet William Hill
no 1.73 57.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.74 57.5% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.72 58.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1%
yes 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 1.98 50.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.02 49.5% 1.98 50.5% 1.89 52.9% 1.95 51.3%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet
draw_away 1.10 90.9% 1.14 87.7% 1.12 89.3% 1.14 87.7% 1.08 92.6% 1.11 90.1%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.26 79.4% 1.25 80.0% 1.23 81.3% 1.20 83.3% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 2.45 40.8% 2.45 40.8% 2.38 42.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.39 41.8%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.06 94.3% — 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25 — — 1.15 87.0%
Over 1.5 1.30 76.9% — 1.27 78.7%
Over 1.75 — — 1.34 74.6%
Over 2.5 1.95 51.3% 2.04 49.0% —
Over 3.5 3.40 29.4% — —
Over 4.5 6.50 15.4% — —
Under 0.5 8.50 11.8% — —
Under 1.5 3.35 29.9% — —
Under 2.5 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% —
Under 3.5 1.30 76.9% — —
Under 4.5 1.10 90.9% — —
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMoreirense - SC Braga

Moreirense
0 matches total
SC Braga
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history