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Primeira Liga
Primeira Liga Portugal
04.04.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction
04.04.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Rio Ave - Alverca

Portugal Football
Stadium Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
1 : 2
Finished
Alverca
Alverca

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Rio Ave - Alverca April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Rio Ave.

Line favourite market consensus: Rio Ave. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.54 / X 3.33 / 2 2.68
  • 1X2 market: Rio Ave 36.8% / X 28.2% / Alverca 35.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 53.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.7%
1 36.9%
X 28.1%
2 35.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.1%
Over 2.5 46.4%
Under 2.5 53.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 04.04.2026 17:00 UTC
Match center

Rio Ave - Alverca

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.68 market consensus · line only
X 3.33 market consensus · line only
1 2.54 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.48 market consensus · line only
12 1.31 market consensus · line only
1X 1.44 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.50 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.19 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.61 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.52 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.03 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.76 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.94 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.78 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.54 39.4% 2.53 39.5% 2.62 38.2% 2.50 40.0% 2.57 38.9% 2.50 40.0%
X 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.45 29.0% 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.30 30.3%
2.70 37.0% 2.57 38.9% 2.78 36.0% 2.75 36.4% 2.72 36.8% 2.70 37.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet William Hill
no 1.95 51.3% 1.92 52.1% 1.93 51.8% 1.95 51.3% 1.93 51.8% 1.93 51.8% 1.90 52.6% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3%
yes 1.75 57.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.78 56.2% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.78 56.2% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.34 74.6% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2%
home_draw 1.44 69.4% 1.48 67.6% 1.40 71.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.06 94.3% — 1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0 — — 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.25 — — 1.17 85.5%
Over 1.5 1.33 75.2% — 1.30 76.9%
Over 1.75 — — 1.38 72.5%
Over 2.25 — 1.90 52.6% —
Over 2.5 2.00 50.0% — —
Over 3.5 3.55 28.2% — —
Over 4.5 7.00 14.3% — —
Under 0.5 8.50 11.8% — —
Under 1.5 3.25 30.8% — —
Under 2.25 — 1.99 50.3% —
Under 2.5 1.80 55.6% — —
Under 3.5 1.28 78.1% — —
Under 4.5 1.09 91.7% — —
Match center

Full head-to-head historyRio Ave - Alverca

Rio Ave
0 matches total
Alverca
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history